[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '.')..The seven sisters collude with each other and they collude with govt...

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'D')Peak, The seven sisters collude with each other and they collude with govt. If you don't understand the corrupting force of oil money on the judicial, executive and legislative branches of govt, it's not my problem, but it could become your's. A meaningful discussion about the severity of diminishing supply and how it will play out, is a non-starter if you don't understand the political process/abscess.

[Twilight]

Zardoz has it about right, the world has collectively drifted into this crisis without being steered and everyone is ill-prepared to seize the initiative. It would be like expecting the cabin crew to land an airliner. They are not competent for the task.

I think threadbear and many others are too quick to ascribe omniscience, omnipotence and malvolent intent to higher authorities, perhaps out of mistrust, even hatred, or an innate preference for a simple all-explaining truth. Life doesn't work like that, and they give them too much credit. Most authorities will be like rabbits in the headlights, once they actually see the headlights.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')Any guess to when the US runs below MOL ?

[shortonoil]

threadbear said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou could be right, Twilight. My guess is you're wrong, obviously. I'll lay bets that within a year, you will be reading about nothing but nukes and the groundwork will have begun to construct hundreds of them, in Britain, and the U.S. I'll send you a fruitbasket of your choosing, if I'm wrong. Furthermore, I'll admit I'm a complete fruitcake.

[Starvid]

I don't see why building reactors should be so hard. The French, and everyone else, did it in the last oil crisis.

You don't need very much money, and you can loan it at sovereign rates. Like the French did.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '
')
Nuclear energy requires a 2/3’rds up-front investment. That is, you invest 6.7 cents into building the plant, for every 10 cent kilowatt hr ever delivered. With the financial Armageddon that is developing, Britain or any industrialized country will soon be lucky if they can afford the gasoline for the Primer’s Rolls, to say nothing about building 100’s of nuclear plants. To image that anyone will have the resources to rebuild our economic system after this collapse, is as close to ridiculous as one can get.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'T')he UK could replace its entire grids capacity with around 40 nuclear plants at a cost of $75 billion dollars. Over a 7 year build programe thats just under $11 billion a year. i.e. Nothing for govenment that has a revenue of $900 billion. The issue with nuclear is not if it is affordable for the goverment, it clearly is, the issue is number 1 governments don't supply power to citizens and 2 is nuclear the most optimum choice.

[shortonoil]

mkwin said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he UK could replace its entire grids capacity with around 40 nuclear plants at a cost of $75 billion dollars. Over a 7 year build programe thats just under $11 billion a year. i.e. Nothing for govenment that has a revenue of $900 billion. The issue with nuclear is not if it is affordable for the goverment, it clearly is, the issue is number 1 governments don't supply power to citizens and 2 is nuclear the most optimum choice.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hose estimates are how old?

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '
')

Those estimates are how old? Of the 163 nuclear plants that have been built in the US and Britain, there has never been one completed on schedule or within budget. To image that all of a sudden that we have developed the capacity to build 40 nuks for $75 billion is hyperbola at best. In an era of soaring construction cost, resource depletion and qualified personal shortages in all fields, to say nothing of the political obstacles that would have to be overcome, such a feat would approach the capabilities of a magician.

Furthermore, within the 7 to 20 year period it would require for those plants to be completed, we will have fallen so far down Hubbert's curve, that it is likely that no large scale projects of any kind will be possible!

[Starvid]

7 years is unreasonable. 15 is reasonable. If you did it in a frantic no-costs-barred fashion you might be able to do it in 10 years. Maybe. But that wouldn't make sense as that would be expensive nuclear power. Do it in 15 years and it will be cheap. By the way...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')l Gore is to be the star turn at a dinner where guests have paid at least £1,000 a head, and some will have parted with £50,000 for their share of the Aberdeen Angus steak and pink champagne, under the high ornate ceilings of London's Royal Courts of Justice. The combined wealth of the diners has been estimated at £100bn. But the most unusual aspect of the evening is not the price of the tickets but the nature of the floor show. In place of professional performers, the guests will be regaled by people who are not always thought of as entertainers, though some think they are all mad. They are inventive British boffins who care about climate change.

[shortonoil]

threadbear said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he electrical grid in the US has to be replaced anyway, and soaring labor costs won't be a problem when masses of people are unemployed. Procurement of materials, as well, may not represent an insurmountable problems, in a global economic slowdown.

[shortonoil]

mkwin said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ould you care to provide any backing to your speculation? The new reactors are estimated at a cost of between $1-1.5 a watt capital cost. Assuming a 1.6 gw and a medium cost of 1.75 a watt design thats $2 billion per unit.

[Twilight]

I will second that. No skilled labour force is that flexible. It is stating the obvious, but it cannot be turned around in less than one education cycle even neglecting additional time to ramp up. Remember the old saying "You have to find oil before you can produce it"; equally you need to build the workforce before you build something on that scale. Nobody keeps an organisation fully staffed waiting for work. When the belated go-ahead comes, as it surely will, check whether everything is in place ready to go. There is a good chance they will still be in the middle of hiring and training.

[mkwin]

Did France have a load of unemployed nuclear engineers before it began its rapid civilian nuclear program?

It takes on average 5 years to construct a nuclear plant so for a large scale program like the one proposed I agree with Starvid a 15-year total program would be very achievable. Within that period the necessary training could easily be done. It takes 3 years to study a nuclear engineering degree and maybe 5 years post degree experience to get to a safe level of competence. Personnel would not be a problem.

[Twilight]

I agree a 15 year programme is possible, my point was anything less is not. The UK will be burning natural gas through the next decade hoping it can get enough construction underway by 2020. Every year without a clear go-ahead is a year less, and it's not as if we have an infinite quantity of reliably available natural gas to play with. I will be much reassured once politicians put their balls on the line on this issue. We are only committed once they can't back out.

[shortonoil]

Twilight said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') agree a 15 year programme is possible, my point was anything less is not. The UK will be burning natural gas through the next decade hoping it can get enough construction underway by 2020.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]Twilight said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') agree a 15 year programme is possible, my point was anything less is not. The UK will be burning natural gas through the next decade hoping it can get enough construction underway by 2020.

[Twilight]

I can't tell you where the gas and the people are going to come from. I can only tell you what is being attempted.