by spot5050 » Tue 20 Nov 2007, 10:33:04
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'S')o why didn't you pick 1987 to 2027?
I didn't pick that range because it doesn't centre around the peak.
If you want to show forward to 2027, then for balance you have to show back to 1966...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'W')hat do you think the effects of a slight decline in oil supply might be over 20 years?
I think the effects will be that we have a recession.
by Heineken » Tue 20 Nov 2007, 10:49:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geko45', 'A')nd when we zoom in on the relevant time frame we see:
Interesting chart Geko.
It is flat at the top... which is exactly my point.
The "peak" isn't a peak - it's an era taking many years.
Yes, and most of those years are probably over.
You don't understand PO theory. At all.
We're at the peak now, and the oil price has doubled and tripled and quadrupled over just a
handful of years. That's already an enormous impact over a very short period, and the consequences are just starting to be work their way through the system.
The "flatness" you're referring to is the plateau at the top of the peak. How long the plateau lasts is anybody's guess and has been endlessly debated here. The important thing is that, as population and demand continue to grow, the plateau is
effectively turned into a downslope. Meaning that, for the first time in the modern industrial-economic era, there will be a shrinking total supply of liquid fuels, with disastrous consequences for this civilization.
So production can stay nice and flat and disaster will still happen quite soon. Flat is bad, not a time for a complacent nap. You're not going to have those comfortable 40 years you dream of.
"Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---I & my bro.
by spot5050 » Tue 20 Nov 2007, 10:56:41
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'T')he part that you are leaving out is that we live in a growth based economy. Like an airplane, it has to keep moving forward or it crashes.
No that's a poor analogy. The economy is either expanding or shrinking, not expanding or crashing... unless you are a journalist of course
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'W')hen the economy completely stalls, or actually starts to contract. All the "economic models" can be thrown out the window.
No the economics of recession are well understood. Governments and central banks will not throw their economic models out of the window at the first signs of recession.
by TonyPrep » Tue 20 Nov 2007, 14:33:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'S')o why didn't you pick 1987 to 2027?
I didn't pick that range because it doesn't centre around the peak.
Hold on, you said that you were interested in 20 years +/- of now. That would be 1987-2027. Now you are saying +/- 20 years around peak. If peak is now, that would still be 1987-2027. Your choice of dates implies that you think peak was in 1999. What evidence do you have of that? If you didn't think peak was 1999, then move your graph. Why do you continue to support the unsupportable? And you still don't explain what is so interesting about the last 20 years (even though you show the last 28 years).$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'W')hat do you think the effects of a slight decline in oil supply might be over 20 years?
I think the effects will be that we have a recession.
And do you think the economy will snap out of that to get back to where we are now? If not, how do you think that overall decline will affect society in the long term (given that a recession in the short term will be bad, anyway)?
by spot5050 » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 20:34:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')he "flatness" you're referring to is the plateau at the top of the peak. How long the plateau lasts is anybody's guess and has been endlessly debated here. The important thing is that, as population and demand continue to grow, the plateau is effectively turned into a downslope. Meaning that, for the first time in the modern industrial-economic era, there will be a shrinking total supply of liquid fuels, with disastrous consequences for this civilization.
So production can stay nice and flat and disaster will still happen quite soon.
Flat is bad, not a time for a complacent nap.
I disagree. Flat is just flat - no growth, no recession. Economists produce figures showing how demand and supply will diverge, but it doesnt matter how much demand there is - supply is finite. Divergence between demand and supply is theoretical. In practice, there is just supply.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'Y')ou don't understand PO theory. At all.
You're not going to have those comfortable 40 years you dream of.
I'm happy to engage in debate, but please don't patrontise me.
by Heineken » Thu 22 Nov 2007, 00:19:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')he "flatness" you're referring to is the plateau at the top of the peak. How long the plateau lasts is anybody's guess and has been endlessly debated here. The important thing is that, as population and demand continue to grow, the plateau is effectively turned into a downslope. Meaning that, for the first time in the modern industrial-economic era, there will be a shrinking total supply of liquid fuels, with disastrous consequences for this civilization.
So production can stay nice and flat and disaster will still happen quite soon.
Flat is bad, not a time for a complacent nap.
I disagree. Flat is just flat - no growth, no recession. Economists produce figures showing how demand and supply will diverge, but it doesnt matter how much demand there is - supply is finite. Divergence between demand and supply is theoretical. In practice, there is just supply.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'Y')ou don't understand PO theory. At all.
You're not going to have those comfortable 40 years you dream of.
I'm happy to engage in debate, but please don't patrontise me.
I can't apologize because I truly do believe you don't understand what you're talking about. So I meant what I said. But please bear in mind that my reference is to your opinions and knowledge, not you personally. You seem to be a very decent fellow, as evidenced by the patience you display with us PO rowdies.
Your comments about the graph make zero sense; they amount to a sort of word hash.
Flat oil production would and will be a disaster because demand for oil continues to grow, and because economic growth would end. If the oil isn't there to meet the demand, disaster happens. It's that simple. Just as the world economy is based heavily on oil, so too the world economy is based on growth. Economic growth is what has kept the debt from blowing up in our face. To avoid a myocardial infarction, civilization not only needs oil, it needs a rising supply of oil. Not a flat supply, a rising supply. Bear in mind too that 100,000 hungry new mouths appear on the scene every morning, net of deaths.
In any case the supply of oil isn't going to stay flat, it's likely to plunge, and soon. Read "Twilight in the Desert." You can play with the axes on your graph all you like, but that curve is going to be headed DOWN quite soon, if it isn't already.
"It doesn't matter how much demand there is---supply is finite." Can you please explain that? Demand for essential commodities always matters. Jane demands air, 10 or more gulps of it per minute. John demands food, water, etc. If the supply of these things falls short of the demand, Jane and John die.
by Narz » Thu 22 Nov 2007, 00:32:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '[')url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IERzx5Spic]Don't worry, be happy[/url] BOBBY McFERRIN
Ah, that's awesome. Thank you.
The mood that song is the musical antonym of peakoil.com
“Seek simplicity but distrust it”
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Narz
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“Seek simplicity but distrust it”
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Narz
- Intermediate Crude
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- Posts: 2360
- Joined: Sat 25 Nov 2006, 04:00:00
- Location: the belly of the beast (New Jersey)
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