[spot5050]

Here's the classic PO chart...



Scary huh.

But look at the horizontal axis... it spans a timescale of about 300 years.

What would that chart look like if we zoomed in on the peak and used a more human timescale... say 40 years - half an average human lifetime.



Now the "peak" of Peak Oil has disappeared and been replaced by a rather gentle slope.

Zoom in again so the horizontal axis spans only ten years and the so-called "peak" becomes almost completely flat.

Of course, PO is hugely significant but it will take time to get over the peak. Calculating exactly which year PO will occur is an academic excercise.

[dohboi]

Flat, or nearly flat, production is a crisis in itself, in a world that has accustomed itself to ever-increasing quantities of the black fluid and in a world with economies as large and rapidly growing as those of China and India. Yes, we can't know for sure how rapid the fall off will be, but you don't even have to get to the downside of the curve for severe "adjustments" to start setting in, as we are now seeing.

But thanks for the reminder that graphs look very different presented at different magnifications. Always an important point to keep in mind.

[americandream]

Now take this PO graph and overlay on it a chart for projected economic growth across the world (note..Chindia is an unstoppable juggernaut of 2 billion people in overdrive)....and tremble.

[Twilight]

Classic PO chart? No it isn't. What's up with the vertical scale? What region is that? If 40 years a human timscale, why does the relevant section begin in 1979? Why don't we choose 1930 and show 40 years of exponential growth? How about we start off with 2007 and show the next 40 years? That's what's relevant. It won't look pretty under any magnification.

[Don35]

Nice, but the down slope will be MUCH steeper than the up slope. It's called exponentially growing demand. Plus the easy "fruit" has been picked. What's left? Tar sands, shale, deep ocean oil, etc. Still looks scary to me!

[billp]

Senior does not know.

Senior was scared by 1972 and 1980 oil problems.

Is 2007 different?

Maybe history is different?

http://www.prosefights.org/nmlegal/dcvo ... tm#history

Who knows?

[Heineken]

The time period for the part of the curve you've chosen to zoom in on---1979 to 2017---is three-fourths over. So your analysis is highly misleading.

Zoom in, instead, on the 40-year period from 2008 to 2048 (that is, the 40-year period we all start living in a few weeks). That curve is much less gentle and much more scary.

p.s.: Twilight, I see you've said pretty much the same thing.

[Judgie]

http://www.peakoilblues.com/blog/

So? which variation of Panglossian disorder do we diagnose Spot5050 with?

[yeahbut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'N')ow take this PO graph and overlay on it a chart for projected economic growth across the world (note..Chindia is an unstoppable juggernaut of 2 billion people in overdrive)....and tremble.

[jupiters_release]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', '
')

[whereagles]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', 'Z')oom in again so the horizontal axis spans only ten years and the so-called "peak" becomes almost completely flat.

[Heineken]

Hey, make the x-axis span only ten days and curve gets even flatter!!

What's the point?

The entire thesis is idiocy.

[spot5050]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'F')lat, or nearly flat, production is a crisis in itself, in a world that has accustomed itself to ever-increasing quantities of the black fluid and in a world with economies as large and rapidly growing as those of China and India. Yes, we can't know for sure how rapid the fall off will be, but you don't even have to get to the downside of the curve for severe "adjustments" to start setting in, as we are now seeing.

[spot5050]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', 'D')ecreased demand seems to be discounted by many here at PO as a mitigating factor for the steepness of the far side of the curve. It strikes me as a real contradiction - how can the massive crash predicted by the doomers not be accompanied by a massive drop in consumption? Wouldn't they go hand in hand?

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', 'h')ow can the massive crash predicted by the doomers not be accompanied by a massive drop in consumption? Wouldn't they go hand in hand?

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', 'I') think the word "crisis" is too strong. Yes flat production will necessitate an adjustment for business and the financial markets in particular, but there have been several recent episodes of flat and even falling output and I'm sure you would agree that whilst it wasn't pleasant, the world did not end. Flat output will only really come as a big shock for people who are too young to remember the last recession!

[Geko45]

I'm not sure where Spot5050 got his chart from, but it's certainly not an oil production curve. For one, it doesn't show the distinctive dip that occured in the 70s. My analysis (using the Hubbert method) shows a much more pronounced shortfall between supply and demand beginning very soon. With "regular" demand growth being about 1.9% per year according to the EIA, once peak is reached, demand and available supply diverge quite rapidly. Toss in the Export Land phenomenon and things get very bad very quick for net oil importers.



And when we zoom in on the relevant time frame we see:

[spot5050]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geko45', 'A')nd when we zoom in on the relevant time frame we see:

[spot5050]

Gawd, I am struggling to get across a very simple point.

I chose the dates for the charts at the start of this thread because they spanned the predicted peak of peak oil.

Please feel free to start another thread to discuss oil production from 1940-1970, or 2000-2150, or any other timespan, but I am only interested in +/- 20 years from now for the purposes of this thread.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', 'I') am only interested in +/- 20 years from now for the purposes of this thread.