[Graeme]

This is some realism for you!

A new plague: The epidemic is coming

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e're in for another epidemic. You probably don't want to hear that; we've had enough with bluetongue, foot-and-mouth and bird flu in animals. We're only just beginning to calm down as the bird flu threat to humans apparently recedes, but mad cow disease seems only yesterday and our hospitals are cesspits of MRSA and C.difficile. Haven't we had enough? And how can I be so sure that we're due for more?

The first answer is: history. Infectious diseases have been with us since the dawn of time. In the last century they accounted for more deaths than all the wars combined; indeed during most conflicts until the American Civil War of 1861-5 deaths from infection off the battlefield exceeded those from wounds. But surely the invention of penicillin, proper sewerage and vaccination should have got rid of them for good?

I'm afraid not. My research is not, generally, concerned with the obvious culprit – resistance. The number of people dying of resistant bacteria, although increasing, is small. Nor am I banging a drum about the lack of clean drinking water that is killing millions. I am concerned with the epidemics that are likely to trouble us in the West: how they might get to us; what they might do; and how (if at all) we can protect ourselves.

Allergy
Cancer
HIV
Polio
Disease X

Why are we so at risk of infectious epidemics? It is because we are made of epidemics ourselves, and in some very strange ways. A large part of us (45 per cent of our genes) is made of viruses and bacteria. In the end we may even be the terminal epidemic on the planet, poisoning ourselves with our own exhausts. Much like a petri dish of bacteria, in fact...

[gg3]

PO takes down the economy.

The failing economy leads to reduced access to good health care.

The decline in access to good health care leads to greater propagation of resistant bugs and emerging bugs and old bugs coming back for another bite.

The stage is thereby set for plagues, which, along with resource wars, will be exacerbated by the conditions produced by climate change.

Earth's sustainable carrying capacity is 1 - 3 billion humans. We're presently far into overshoot at 6.5 billion. The necessary consequence is that population has to come down by 4 billion or more: you can't run in ecological deficit spending for long, and we've been doing it now for a little over half a century.

Tick... tick... tick...

[Kylon]

One Word- Bacteriophage


What's needed to fight these diseases is just the use of bacteriophages.

You grow enough of them, for each different kind of strain, or at least each different kind of family of strain,

Then you mix the vial together, so it contains multiple bacteriophages of different kinds.

Then, if you get infected with bacteria, you spray/inject the multibacteriophage liquid into the wound. One of those bacteriophages will end up attaching to the bacteria, when it does, it will begin proliferating, and killing all the bacteria of that type.

If you have an infection with multiple types, this also works.

So, done correctly, a bacteriophage treatment can be just as effective if not more effective then an antibiotic treatment.

That's my take on the antibiotic situation.

NOTE: DO NOT TRY ANY OF THIS. YOU SHOULD ONLY LOOK INTO THIS WITH A QUALIFIED PHYSICIANS SUPERVISION.

[Narz]

The best health insurance is keeping a strong immune system.

[Grifter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kylon', 'O')ne Word- Bacteriophage.......

[evilgenius]

I haven't seen this elsewhere and I didn't want to post it as a separate thread, but what about the strange happenings in the UK? What has gone on seems a lot like a research project on the spread of contagion in the environment. It seems like it but doesn't have to be. It could be the product of a socio-economic landscape operated close to peak capacity and denied the capital to improve that capacity. Denied the capital because of peak oil? Hmmm.

[vox_mundi]

'Superbugs’ Kill India’s Babies and Pose an Overseas Threat
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/12/04/wo ... hreat.html
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')MRAVATI, India — A deadly epidemic that could have global implications is quietly sweeping India, and among its many victims are tens of thousands of newborns dying because once-miraculous cures no longer work.

These infants are born with bacterial infections that are resistant to most known antibiotics, and more than 58,000 died last year as a result, a recent study found. While that is still a fraction of the nearly 800,000 newborns who die annually in India, Indian pediatricians say that the rising toll of resistant infections could soon swamp efforts to improve India’s abysmal infant death rate. Nearly a third of the world’s newborn deaths occur in India.

“Five years ago, we almost never saw these kinds of infections,” said Dr. Neelam Kler, chairwoman of the department of neonatology at New Delhi’s Sir Ganga Ram Hospital, one of India’s most prestigious private hospitals. “Now, close to 100 percent of the babies referred to us have multidrug resistant infections. It’s scary.”

These babies are part of a disquieting outbreak. A growing chorus of researchers say the evidence is now overwhelming that a significant share of the bacteria present in India — in its water, sewage, animals, soil and even its mothers — are immune to nearly all antibiotics.

[Shaved Monkey]

Disinfectant hand wash is helping breed the super bugs in suburbia

[Henriksson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shaved Monkey', 'D')isinfectant hand wash is helping breed the super bugs in suburbia

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Henriksson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shaved Monkey', 'D')isinfectant hand wash is helping breed the super bugs in suburbia

[Shaved Monkey]

Tricloson on the rocks
Its the most common microbial agent used in hospital and now in everything from soaps to toothpastes to chopping boards to toilet seats.
You kill 99% of germs the 1% that dont get killed by this are going to breed.
When you really need to kill them what are you going to do it with?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ecent studies, however, have raised questions about whether triclosan might be hazardous to human health.

Research has shown that triclosan:

Alters hormone regulation in animals
Might contribute to the development of antibiotic-resistant germs
Might be harmful to the immune system

When you use a product containing triclosan, you can absorb a small amount through your skin or mouth. A 2008 study, which was designed to assess exposure to triclosan in a representative sample of U.S. children and adults, found triclosan in the urine of nearly 75 percent of those tested.

[dohboi]

The top post is about India. I don't think hand sanitizers have a lot to do with it there. More likely it is poor people trying to save by cutting short antibiotic use the moment they feel better.

The biggest problem in the West (and probably elsewhere, but I don't know as much about practices there) is use of antibiotics in cattle lots. Some huge portion of all antibiotics in the US goes to this practice. Overuse breeds resistance.

[Shaved Monkey]

in the cattle and us

Re; India
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..Every time we take an antibiotic we're giving the bug a chance to become a superbug ... the more of us that take antibiotics inappropriately, the greater the chance in the community a superbug will come."

And that's exactly what's happening in India, where antibiotics are not restricted in their use.
As a result a new superbug, New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase or NDM-1, has evolved.
Not only is it deadly in its own right, it's also capable of genetically modifying other bacteria to make them superbugs

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shaved Monkey', 'i')n the cattle and us

Re; India
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..Every time we take an antibiotic we're giving the bug a chance to become a superbug ... the more of us that take antibiotics inappropriately, the greater the chance in the community a superbug will come."

And that's exactly what's happening in India, where antibiotics are not restricted in their use.
As a result a new superbug, New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase or NDM-1, has evolved.
Not only is it deadly in its own right, it's also capable of genetically modifying other bacteria to make them superbugs

[SeaGypsy]

Another factor in developing countries is the prevalence of 'preventative' antibiotic use. Particularly among health workers, chemists & the other, very old high risk profession. The emerging middle class are often not well educated on medicine & can afford to pop an Amoxiclavinate daily if they think doing so will keep them safe. Of course in the short term it might, but in the long term it's deadly.

[vox_mundi]

Superbugs to kill 'more than cancer' by 2050
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-30416844
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')rug resistant infections will kill an extra 10 million people a year worldwide - more than currently die from cancer - by 2050 unless action is taken, a study says. They are currently implicated in 700,000 deaths each year.

The analysis, presented by the economist Jim O'Neill, said the costs would spiral to $100tn (£63tn). He was appointed by Prime Minister David Cameron in July to head a review of antimicrobial resistance. Mr O'Neill told the BBC: "To put that in context, the annual GDP [gross domestic product] of the UK is about $3tn, so this would be the equivalent of around 35 years without the UK contribution to the global economy."

The reduction in population and the impact on ill-health would reduce world economic output by between 2% and 3.5%.

The analysis was based on scenarios modelled by researchers Rand Europe and auditors KPMG. They found that drug resistant E. coli, malaria and tuberculosis (TB) would have the biggest impact. In Europe and the United States, antimicrobial resistance causes at least 50,000 deaths each year, they said. And left unchecked, deaths would rise more than 10-fold by 2050.

[vox_mundi]

Common bacteria on verge of becoming antibiotic-resistant superbugs

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ntibiotic resistance is poised to spread globally among bacteria frequently implicated in respiratory and urinary infections in hospital settings, according to new research at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis.

The study shows that two genes that confer resistance against a particularly strong class of antibiotics can be shared easily among a family of bacteria responsible for a significant portion of hospital-associated infections.

"Carbapenems are one of our last resorts for treating bacterial infections, what we use when nothing else works," said senior author Gautam Dantas, PhD, associate professor of pathology and immunology. "Given what we know now, I don't think it's overstating the case to say that for certain types of infections, we may be looking at the start of the post-antibiotic era, a time when most of the antibiotics we rely on to treat bacterial infections are no longer effective."

Two genes are primarily responsible for carbapenem-resistant versions of these disease-causing bacteria. One gene, KPC, was detected in New York in 2001 and quickly spread around most of the world, with the exception of India, Pakistan and other South Asian countries. This gene was present in the bacteria that recently contaminated medical equipment in a Los Angeles hospital where two patients died.

A second carbapenem resistance gene, NDM-1, was identified in 2006 in New Delhi, India. It was soon detected throughout South Asia, and most patients infected by bacteria with NDM-1 have had an epidemiological link to South Asian countries.

The researchers identified a few key instances in which the plasmids carrying NDM-1 or KPC were nearly identical, meaning they easily could facilitate the spread of antibiotic resistance between disease-causing bacteria found in the United States and South Asia. Recent evidence suggests that this intermingling already may be happening in parts of China.

"Our findings also suggest it's going to get easier for strains of these bacteria that are not yet resistant to pick up a gene that lets them survive carbapenem treatment,"

[Outcast_Searcher]

In my experience, there is a VERY stupid and quite widespread contributer to breeding AMR in the US, and it is PCP's (primary care physicians).

Example: I go to a doctor due to a persistent headache and stuffy nose, with a random fever of zero to four degrees after several days. I do what I always do when going to the doctor -- I ask if they have any advice.

The doctor tells me it's viral, and that I should rest and stay HOME (since I'm contagious) until the fever is gone. I say, "OK, thank you".

Now, here's the problem. The doctor acts surprised, and when I ask why, tells me in a huge proportion of cases like that the patient wants or even DEMANDS an antibiotic. What's worse, the doctor tells me many doctors prescribe these whether needed or not if the patient wants it, just to keep the patient (and their money) coming back.

So how many million doses of unneeded broad spectrum antibiotics for how many different minor illnesses does it take year after year, decade after decade, to breed a certain percentage of bugs highly resistant to those antibiotics?

To me, this is another problem with the fee to treat nature of US medicine. If doctors were paid for overall RESULTS of statistical significance, doctors could tell such patients -- "NO, taking antibiotics when you don't NEED them is BAD for you and for the general population in the long term, and I'm not going to prescribe those until you do need them. Period."

This is a problem similar to skipping "dangerous" vaccinations for children and putting the entire population at risk. And sadly in both cases, the enemy is us. One wonders how bad things must get before we disallow such stupid risk to be inflicted by OURSELVES via ignorance.

[Ibon]

We discovered anti biotics and vaccines to manage disease. This directly contributed to human overshoot as we removed our predators. Humans are abusing the usage of the predator killing medicines creating superbugs. These Superbugs might just be the reintroduction of the missing predator to bring us back into carrying capacity.

All this stupid misuse is perhaps not so stupid?

[onlooker]

I do not think in any foreseeable future we can completely eradicate dangerous diseases caused by bacteria and viruses, they are highly adaptive and are by far the most numerous of life on the planet. I think the overuse not just of antibiotics but of all medicines is in fact a bit of a delusion we give ourselves. We are at this stage not knowledgeable enough about the human body or about micro-organisms to combat them just with man-made medicines. Perhaps some day we will be. Now, though we kid ourselves to think we can really hold back these microbes, in fact we are weakening our awesome immune system by taking these drugs. What is probably more responsible for maintaining the health of humans is diet, exercise and enough sleep and relatively benign environments where people live such as not living among the sick and in a sanitary area as well as being cautious not to be exposed to anything that a person deems harmful such as nasty weather, foul water or spoiled food etc. Again just another symptom of our hubris at this stage of our evolution.