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THE Blackouts/Brownouts Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Where will the Blackouts Happen First this Summer

Postby JRP3 » Thu 05 Jul 2007, 23:28:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('HamRadioRocks', '
')
Is everyone that averse to conservation? Conservation has the added bonus of SAVING MONEY.


Energy is still too cheap. Best way to avoid blackouts in the summer is to raise the price a lot, then people may think twice before super cooling their homes.
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Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge

Postby Ayoob » Wed 05 Sep 2007, 20:41:19

My power went out in the LA blackout and they had us back up in about seven hours. It wasn't a big deal here.

It was hot that day. My thermometer read anywhere from 104F to 114F that afternoon. I sprayed some water on the cement patio outside of my apartment and watched it evaporate. A ten-foot diameter wet spot was bone dry in less than five seconds.

At a little after 1700, I heard the AC shut off and that was it. We got power back a little before midnight.

I think it's interesting to note that the guy interviewed in the newspaper article had his whole life powered by electricity. It's a choice he made. You don't have to make that choice, you know. He could have a manual gate, he could have done dishes in the sink like I did for 33 of my 35 years without describing your life as "third world." Washing clothes by hand though, that's no es bueno. Ay yi yi. He has no backup for anything, apparently. I'm not a rich guy, but I have a windup alarm clock as well as a battery backup for my electric alarm clock. I have ice in the freezer that I transferred to the fridge. When I was talking to somebody about the ice situation, he told me that he puts a couple of 2-liters of water in the freezer. If the power goes out, he pulls a frozen 2-liter out of the freezer and puts it in the fridge. He says it works. My filipino friend gave me the idea about buying a battery and an inverter and keeping the juice on that way.

How funny though, I bought a book that day called Survival by the guy that wrote fight club, and I was reading it by headlamp, drinking ice cold beer from a steel pot full of cans of Fosters and a bag of ice from the local Rite-Aid during a blackout. To add to the irony, I had a camping propane lantern in my hand that morning and looked at the $21 price tag and said to myself, Hmmm. Maybe I should pick one of these up. Then apparently something shiny caught my attention and I wandered off.

You can have a three-day backup supply of electricity if you want it, you just have to pay for it and get it hooked up before you need it.

--------------------------------

Sorry, I just realized I hijacked the thread for a minute. The info important for this thread is that two things happened due to the heat. One is that the AC use went through the roof, and some machinery that's part of the grid wasn't venting its heat very well at that temp.
Last edited by Ferretlover on Thu 02 Apr 2009, 08:45:31, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: Merged with THE Blackouts/Brownouts Thread.
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Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge

Postby Revi » Wed 05 Sep 2007, 21:51:05

We installed a solar back-up light system using LED's and 12 volt plugs like you have in your car. When the electricity goes out we still have light to get around the house, we can charge our cell phones and play CD's. We have a woodstove, so we can keep the house warm too. It's fun. We were the only ones with lights on during a recent outage. It was kinda wierd.

I like the idea of putting a couple of liters of ice in the fridge for use during blackouts. I think we'll try that. Thanks Ayoob!
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Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge

Postby Carlhole » Sun 30 Sep 2007, 18:18:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'T')hese latest posts have nothing to do with the Olduvai Gorge, they are tangents, hijacks, and I wish the mods would move them somewhere else.


I beg your pardon! The Olduvai Gorge Theory is a Population Overshoot/Resource Exhaustion theory.

It says that industrial civilization is "horridly short", lasting only approximately 100 years.

It says that the carrying capacity of the Earth has been inflated far beyond normal and that once the key, cheap available resources become scarce, this carrying capacity will be greatly diminished. Richard Duncan's meaning is as plain as the nose on your face.

What will be the response to the effects of the Olduvai Gorge scenario on peoples and upon individuals? Well... if you subscribe to the theory, life is going to become very desperate and very bad.
With a return to more normal carrying capacity, by definition, most people are going to die.

And they will be aware of their impending doom for quite some time in advance. What effect will that have upon their actions and behavior?

I won't bother to go into it any further except to say that The Grim Reaper is involved one way or another.
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Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge

Postby Nicholai » Sun 30 Sep 2007, 18:29:06

A teacher at my school had a suicide kit prepared for himself because of this very issue. He decided this wasn't the right path and instead formalized a plan for a renewable farm outside the city of Calgary. He's quitting his job next year and hopes to have the farm entirely sustainable within the first few months of his stay. If you're a 'social undesirable' and believe that you're time is limited, I believe you should work toward finding a new niche in life. My family has a Cree friend who lives up North in the forest by our cabin. He's 75 years old and still hunts and traps, living much like the Mad Trapper of Rat River or Daniel Boon. His lifestyle is entirely sustainable and he would wish for nothing else. I just wanted to show you that even an old man with no financial power can still have a useful niche, even if in our world he's a "social undesirable".
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Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge

Postby Carlhole » Sun 30 Sep 2007, 18:39:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'I') just wanted to show you that even an old man with no financial power can still have a useful niche, even if in our world he's a "social undesirable".


In a world which is experiencing a mass die-off due to key resource depletion as forecast by The Olduvai Gorge Theory, there WILL NOT be a choice about survival for the mostpart of humanity by definition.

IN a world where 2/3 of humanity can no longer be supported by industrial civilization, people who have various sorts of survival challenges - such as disabilities or age or any of a variety of other kinds of weaknesses - will be the first to go! And that won't even be the half of it.

Long before the resource constraints become maximized, people will be aware of their impending doom. This general awareness of the cataclysm on the horizon will lead to all sorts of bitter and wretched competition by those who want to save themselves.

Others, if they can, will decide that their prospects are simply too bleak and too impossible to go on. It MUST BE that way, if by definition there has been an overshoot and an inevitable collapse of world population.

Read any Matt Savinar lately?

I recommend "Life After The Oil Crash". He lays it all out perfectly well there. And it's all totally in accordance with Richard Duncan's scenario.
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Cameroon police kill students in blackout protest

Postby lys3rg0 » Wed 14 Nov 2007, 20:44:21

Two young people are dead in Cameroon, killed by police for protesting against blackouts imposed by U.S. based energy corporation AES whose motto is “the power of being global” and has Carlyle Group connections on its board. It’s also the company that, when it suits its bottom line, decides to starve its less profitable subsidiaries of resources and shuts down its power facilities.
After two weeks of darkness the people of Kumba rebelled, burning down the AES offices. They got their power back, but they lost two students. AES will survive.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')olice in Cameroon shot dead two students during a protest triggered by days of power blackouts in the western town of Kumba, state radio and a senior local official said on Monday.
The police officers opened fire as they were pelted with stones and Molotov cocktails during the demonstration on Saturday, hitting two students in the head and killing them instantly. Another five were injured, one of them seriously.

Source: Reuters via GNN
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Re: Cameroon police kill students in blackout protest

Postby Twilight » Thu 15 Nov 2007, 15:22:49

Withdraw for long enough something on which people have come to rely...
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Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summer

Postby roccman » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 15:39:18

You can add Phoenix to that as well...

I am 9 months ahead of my prediction from last year...imagine that.

Hey - Kill all humans...you gotz some back talking and walking to do punk.

Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summer
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summ

Postby Cashmere » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 19:28:07

Southern Cal - begging to be over the cliff edge first.
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Re: Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summ

Postby steam_cannon » Wed 30 Apr 2008, 01:43:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Conditions will be more difficult" in Southern California, Cal-ISO said in its 2008 Summer Assessment. "Voluntary conservation
and on-call interruptible loads could be needed more frequently than normal."
Sounds entertaining...

[smilie=new_popcornsmiley.gif]
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Re: Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summ

Postby frankthetank » Wed 30 Apr 2008, 10:34:59

Its was 99F in Phoenix yesterday. Over 100F in Yuma.
lawns should be outlawed.
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Re: Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summ

Postby dunewalker » Wed 30 Apr 2008, 11:19:46

Here's a link to the daily California ISO website, showing current demand/production, expected peak demand for the day, and amount of buffer in production capacity:

http://www.caiso.com/outlook/SystemStatus.html

As I recall, the maximum demand for California has been around 55 Megawatts, during last summer heat waves, so it's looking relatively mellow at the moment.
"Wilderness is another civilization apart from our own." - H.D. Thoreau
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Re: Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summ

Postby vision-master » Wed 30 Apr 2008, 12:30:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'I')ts was 99F in Phoenix yesterday. Over 100F in Yuma.


did it hit 50F here yesterday? :razz:
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Re: Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summ

Postby frankthetank » Wed 30 Apr 2008, 14:20:37

La Crosse was 50F, i doubt the cities were that warm. At least you guys get heat island effect which helps keep your nights warmer.

It looks to be a hot hot summer out west, according to a few outlooks ive seen.
lawns should be outlawed.
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Re: Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summ

Postby vision-master » Wed 30 Apr 2008, 16:42:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'L')a Crosse was 50F, i doubt the cities were that warm. At least you guys get heat island effect which helps keep your nights warmer.

It looks to be a hot hot summer out west, according to a few outlooks ive seen.


an the brother up north is still maken a fire in the eveing. Wonder if the ice is out yet?
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Re: Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summ

Postby KillTheHumans » Wed 30 Apr 2008, 21:54:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'Y')ou can add Phoenix to that as well...

I am 9 months ahead of my prediction from last year...imagine that.

Hey - Kill all humans...you gotz some back talking and walking to do punk.

Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summer


LIONS AND TIGERS AND BEARS!!

Hey wait....didn't California already HAVE a summer of electrical crisis? Oh thats right!! They did!! Undoubtedly after that happened they never recovered, right Roc? Nope...can't recuperate once that grid craps out, its all over.

So tell me, if the grid already crapped out years ago, and doesn't recover from such catastrophic events, why are they worried about something happening which already did? Oh THATS right, because they DID recover from it!!

Those pesky Californians, the PERFECT chance to have zombies invading suburbs and what happens? Apparently, they liked it so much the last time, they want to do it some more!!
Freddy RULZ!

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Re: Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summ

Postby steam_cannon » Thu 01 May 2008, 00:34:35

I don't expect it to all go at once, at least not yet. But like rice thats
sometimes not on the shelves, the lights are flickering... :-D
[url=http://www.dieoff.org/synopsis.htm]
Image[/url]
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Re: Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summ

Postby yesplease » Thu 01 May 2008, 01:42:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dunewalker', 'A')s I recall, the maximum demand for California has been around 55 Megawatts, during last summer heat waves, so it's looking relatively mellow at the moment.
It tends to be mellow the vast majority of the year. The problem lies during heat waves in the afternoon for a few hours. They've been peppering everyone with a program where they'll credit your bill depending on how much they can shut-off your AC during peak demand.
Last edited by yesplease on Fri 02 May 2008, 00:02:39, edited 1 time in total.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summ

Postby TheDude » Thu 01 May 2008, 07:55:07

Did you bother to read the article, KTH?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he risk of electricity blackouts in Southern California during the hottest days this summer is more than triple that of previous years because power plant additions have failed to keep up with demand, the state's grid manager said.

The likelihood of a Stage 3 emergency, when reserves dip below 3% and power is cut to some customers to prevent a system collapse, rose to 10% for Southern California from 3% in last year's forecast, the California Independent System Operator said in a report Monday.


Emphasis mine. This was in the LA Times, not From the Wilderness. Thought you'd take interest, being a self purported fan of facts and all.
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And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
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