[mkwin]

Hirsch is the leading expert on Peak Oil in my opinion.

A good interview can be found here:

http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/ ... t_full.htm

[Twilight]

Eat that, CERA.

It is remarkable how much of that presentation appears self-evident, many figures are instantly recognisable to anyone who has been reading Campbell and ASPO output since the beginning.

Seems though they realise the game has changed, and not in their favour. Cost inflation, export land, producers' national interests, it's in there.

A good addition to the library of primers though, thanks.

[dukey]

I think some 1st world economies might still grow .. at the expense of the 3rd world countries.

[btu2012]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '
')Seems though they realise the game has changed, and not in their favour. Cost inflation, export land, producers' national interests, it's in there.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('btu2012', 'W')ho are "they"?

[shortonoil]

Twilight said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he US political establishment, which is belatedly considering getting up off its ass. The more of this sort of thing I see, the more I think it's getting serious attention.

[IslandCrow]

Thanks Starvid for the links.

I found it helpful in that it gave good presentation of some of the basic shapes of Peak Oil (that we often argue about). I also found it very depressing (even after being on this site for some time).

Having cut my direct oil usage by over 50%, I need now to work on trying to get the organisation I work for to start their own programme of mitigation. There is plenty of scope for cutting energy use (including oil), but it would require some large capital outlays, and after a couple of bad financial years they are reluctant to spend. But I am afraid the they will only wait until the crisis is obvious in which case it would probably be too late to save the organisation (and my job).

[TheDude]

Great graph of IOCs Vs NOCs over time, and of crude production tracking GDP. CERA look quite pie-in-the-sky next to Campbell and Co.

[Carlhole]

This chart was in the latest Hirsch Powerpoint. I thought it was one of the more significant charts I'd ever seen correlating energy supplies and economic health.

[lorenzo]

Hi, this Mr Hirsch supposedly works for the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) (http://www.saic.com/), but I can't find any of his studies in their library.

In fact, his name doesn't turn up in the SAIC search engine.

So none of what this man says is actually endorsed by SAIC?

Are we talking about the same SAIC? Does he even work there?

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'H')i, this Mr Hirsch supposedly works for the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) (http://www.saic.com/), but I can't find any of his studies in their library.

In fact, his name doesn't turn up in the SAIC search engine.

So none of what this man says is actually endorsed by SAIC?

Are we talking about the same SAIC? Does he even work there?

[Eli]

Timely report, it seems to me the global financial markets are coming to terms with this situation.

We are about to embark on 100$ dollar oil and the possibility of declining future oil supply. The global financial system that was built upon unlimited energy resources available for growth is going to come to a crashing end.

[mattduke]

See "Second Hour Guest Experts". I haven't listened to it myself.

http://financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mattduke', 'S')ee "Second Hour Guest Experts". I haven't listened to it myself.

http://financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

[Schadenfreude]

They didn't mention that latest news in Wired Magazine about Cellulosic Ethanol made cheaply at $1/gallon.

According to Wikipedia on the subject, processing waste material alone could provide about 30% of present US liquid fuel requirements. That's before switchgrass or other ethanol-yeilding crops are even brought in to the equation.

The three guests on Puplava's show seem to re-iterate that it is because time is so short that Peak will be a huge, civilization-changing problem. But we've now seen news that Nanosolar and Cellulosic are a present reality that can scale rapidly. How can they keep on shouting doom?

[Twilight]

Blow-by-blow, as I listen. Omissions are mine alone.

First point - Conventional crude down, NGL making up difference, holding us on plateau.

Second point - Hirsh Report discussion. Too late for mitigation to escape economic impacts.

Third point - A run on gas stations, once one happens, would be difficult to fix.

Fourth point - Export Land Effect, though not described by name. High oil prices bring wealth to exporters, boost economy, increase domestic demand, cannibalise export capacity. Mexico mentioned, 4-5 year horizon for collapse of exports. OPEC and Russia, 3-3.5mb/d decline in exports in that time. There is natural self-interest in minimising exports.

Fifth point - CERA field-by-field study. Simmons says it contradicts his own, which ranked giant oil fields by daily production, not reserves. Someone's method is clearly flawed. Data is poor. CIA had no up-to-date data on Russia, Simmons had to go to IHS.

Sixth point - Feel-good distant peak stories. Where to start? Magnitude of problem too big, mitigation takes too long. Developing world heading in the wrong direction. Actual response to shortages is an important factor. Governments, industry, could be a negative spiral. Could renew importance of domestic farming industries.

[Twilight]

Seventh point - Economists. Say high prices lift supply. Pre-suppose existence of supply. Supply has expanded, but is unconventional. Economists fail to understand crude quality, age of assets. We can do anything we put our minds to, but are not doing so yet. Delay means it is harder. Do we need a new Pearl Harbor? Once peak oil hits public consciousness, people will pressure government for instantaneous solutions. Frightening situation.

Eighth point - US Elections, energy is not on the agenda. Only one stance by candidates, energy independence within a decade, yet no action. Bill Clinton is peak oil aware. Candidates' campaign staffers are receiving briefings on energy. Some respond positively, others... does not want to talk about it. Eventually what they know may break into the race.

Ninth point - Global warming people regard peak oil as a blessing because it has the potential to decarbonise the economy by force. Recurring political theme throughout the OECD.

Tenth point - Rationing by price will be in the West, OECD consumption will decline. Half of total will be in the US. Peak demand reached. Oil subsidised elsewhere. The longer they continue to do so, the longer their exports are cannibalised, the more price-driven rationing there will be in the West. Developing world will become main hydrocarbon consumer, poor emission control, will become main emitter.

[Twilight]

Eleventh point - How to mitigate? Raise awareness. Capital equipment is a major user. Takes too long to replace, put onto different fuels. So conservation is the main thing in the meantime. Mileage standards insufficient. However, declining production will run away from what we can do.

Twelfth point - Economic stimulus, contrast with condition with energy infrastructure. Improvements are cosmetic. People don't get it. Markets still function according to US-centric psychology. Threat of recession beats down energy prices, stocks as if the rest of the world does not count.

Thirteenth point - Alternative energies do not address the liquid fuels problem. The issue is supply of liquid fuels for transport. Nuclear needs to make a comeback, but to address the natural gas problem. It is a different problem, it does not help transport.

Fourteenth point - Inflation shows up in food more than it does in oil. Criticise ethanol. Say food inflation can only go higher.

Fifteenth point - How to stop resource wars? How do you ration energy peacefully? Simmons pushes for energy data reform. Transparency will scare people into holding a world summit to solve issue constructively. Will we "put uniforms on"? Disagreement on this. Some will. Nature of oil ownership changing. Every year another oil patch closed to private ownership. Most of world says hydrocarbons should be developed by the state. Effectively an industry run by state monopolies. Motivated partly by energy security concerns.

Sixteenth point - What would you do as President?

Simmons would cry, he jokes. Would have a fireside chat after telling other world leaders they would be slapping a $20/barrel fine on imports unless they release field by field data. A week later would have a global summit with the most important countries to sort it out.

Hirsch would contact US corporations, NGOs, summon them to discuss the issue. Begin a coordination project.

Rubin would start destroying domestic demand through standards, etc. Cut ethanol subsidies.

All agree whoever addresses the issue will be very unpopular.

Seventeen point - Educating people. Listeners should pressure politicians. Most education will happen at the pump. People will see it is a new age. Expectations will be changed. High prices will not be a passing fad.

[Twilight]

A good summary of where we are assuming you have already been following the situation. Would mean little to a newcomer, I think. Everything was a reference to assumed knowledge.

[essex]

Excellent summary Twilight, thanks.