[BobWallace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timbo', 'T')here will be war. War at all levels until the world population hits around 1.5 to 2 billion, i.e. the overshoot gets resolved.

Desperate people fight wars, always.

[BobWallace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BobWallace', '[')
Uh,....

Lots of those people on the bottom are subsistence farmers. They walk between their houses and fields. They go to sleep when the sun goes down.

Many have never bought a gallon of gasoline in their lives.

.

[mekrob]

Let's see. From Mauratania to Somali, from Egypt to Eastern China.

-Probably half a billion people in that region and it's mostly desert (exception being Iran, Turkey and parts of Israel, Iraq, and a few others). Some of these nations that support millions used to only support a thousand or less just a hundred years ago. Many have poor farming lands.

-Very tense relations between multiple parties including multiple nuclear-equipped militaries.

-Some of the most corrupt regimes on the planet.

-Large oil reserves, but very scarce water reserves and system (look at the problems KSA had in Jeddah and Medina last year).

Yup. That sounds like the resume of the hardest crash to me.

[KingM]

I think your belief that Nepalese, et al, will survive better than Americans appeals to your sense of fair play. After all, it's the Americans burning up the petroleum; they should be the ones to suffer.

The fact is, the Third World is hugely overpopulated because of cheap food and medicine. What was the population of Bangladesh in 1800? You can bet that it wasn't 140 million. Probably more like 10 or 20 million. In a total collapse, those rice farmers will have their land confiscated and their rice sold to people in Switzerland or Ohio to keep the money flowing for the power brokers of Bangladesh for a few years longer.

Again, by the time people are starving to death in Brussels, there will be a stack of corpses a million deep in Lagos.

As for the war comment, wars almost never act as a lid on population. Even the most horrific war of all times--WW II--barely made a dent in the demographic explosion of the 20th Century. It won't be war that collapses the population, it will be opportunistic disease preying on the starving.

[timbo]

No just a student of history I'm afraid.

[KingM]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BobWallace', '
')
There are a few places in the world other than Haiti.

The folks in Nepal, for example, are going to be doing a lot better feeding themselves from their rice fields than are New Yorkers trying to farm Central Park or Orange County-ites grazing on their astroturf.

[BobWallace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BobWallace', '
')
There are a few places in the world other than Haiti.

The folks in Nepal, for example, are going to be doing a lot better feeding themselves from their rice fields than are New Yorkers trying to farm Central Park or Orange County-ites grazing on their astroturf.

[Revi]

I think it will be a collapse of many places at once. We'll hear that small countries, like Zimbabwe don't have enough oil even to run their busses, or that in Southern Sudan people are dying at the hands of the government. Wait... we've heard all this already. Has it begun?

I think that there will be food around for a while, if you have the money to buy it. There will also be gasoline, if you have the cash.

A die off will happen quietly. There may be wars, and refugees.

It's already starting, in my humble opinion.

[BobWallace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think it will be a collapse of many places at once. We'll hear that small countries, like Zimbabwe don't have enough oil even to run their busses, or that in Southern Sudan people are dying at the hands of the government. Wait... we've heard all this already. Has it begun?

I think that there will be food around for a while, if you have the money to buy it. There will also be gasoline, if you have the cash.

A die off will happen quietly. There may be wars, and refugees.

It's already starting, in my humble opinion.

[TreebeardsUncle]

Africa, will get the shaft first as usual. Mexico, is going to have a hard time once Cantarel has crashed to the point they can't export oil. The US will do fine for awhile as it has plenty of coal.

Lates.
g

[thief]

As for Norway, one question is whether they will be allowed by other nations to keep their oil for themselves when others get ever poorer, especially since their oil is easy to lay hands on out at sea.

[timbo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', '.')..The US will do fine for awhile as it has plenty of coal.

[xarkz]

China. They seems to be sacrificing everything they can do build their US-style utopia. When the citizens realize they just missed it and they have to go back to basics, now in a wasted environment, many might get angry imo

[thief]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timbo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', '.')..The US will do fine for awhile as it has plenty of coal.

[timbo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thief', '.')..Point is it will take a while before the Westerners have stripped away all the luxury and waste from their lives. Meanwhile people in Africa have little to cut down upon.

[evilgenius]

I think the West will look a bit like Cuba after the embargo with a great amount of innovation keeping things going. People in the West will find ways of conserving at first, like retrofit insulation. When necessary they will embrace home centered supplements like rooftop solar and wind or deep wells to circulate warm groundwater into their houses. Americans will think it is the end of the world when the price of a happy meal reaches $7.50. Africans will spend the better part of a week gathering the same amount of calories.

The biggest war danger, I think, will present itself along with the shakeup in suppliers. If a country, such as Russia, sees the opportunity to gain political control of various producing countries without anyone stopping them they will. I think this is where the biggest danger for nuclear war will be going forward.

My guess is that in a hundred years a young man will be able to go to the hardware store and buy a gallon of gasoline, probably being sold as some kind of paint spirit. That young man will have received a history from his elders of hard times when the economies of the world collapsed and several nations that he now knows to be weak and small suffered the calamities that made them that way. Most of those nations that fall and stay fallen will probably turn out to be the ones that should have plainly been able to see what was happening to them but couldn't or wouldn't see it. The names of many poor leaders will go down in history as bywords.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BobWallace', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timbo', 'T')here will be war. War at all levels until the world population hits around 1.5 to 2 billion, i.e. the overshoot gets resolved.

Desperate people fight wars, always.

[BobWallace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timbo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thief', '.')..Point is it will take a while before the Westerners have stripped away all the luxury and waste from their lives. Meanwhile people in Africa have little to cut down upon.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BobWallace', '.')..
Find us some examples of that happening in history. That violent destruction of infrastructure stuff.
...

[timbo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BobWallace', '.')..Find us some examples of that happening in history. That violent destruction of infrastructure stuff.

Find more striking examples than how it didn't happen when "luxury" was stripped away during the Great Depression, World War II, the 1970s oil crisis