[Twilight]

Collapse of the Soviet Union, anyone?

I completely agree with what cube wrote above, anyway. The impacts of PO will be as bad as each country's management. Some may do great, maybe even better than today. Others, you may get the option of donating money in response to a TV appeal. And you're not going to be able to predict yet where your country will stand.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'C')ollapse of the Soviet Union, anyone?

I completely agree with what cube wrote above, anyway. The impacts of PO will be as bad as each country's management. Some may do great, maybe even better than today. Others, you may get the option of donating money in response to a TV appeal. And you're not going to be able to predict yet where your country will stand.

[manu]

Whoever is using the most oil will crash the hardest. Because after the resource wars there won't be much left. Whoever is losing in the war will think, if I can't have it no one else will either. After the dust settles, people that are left will just be trying to survive. People will be forced to live simple for a long time. So you might as well start now. Simple living and high thinking.

[bodigami]

The net-exporters of oil are the most likely to be invaded in a post-PO world...

[Starvid]

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

[culicomorpha]

I think Revi is right in that places that were developed before the car (walkable communities) will be much less affected than areas that depend crucially on the car such as suburban areas.

I don't think it is the loss of luxury items that is going to drive the problems in the US, it's the fact that many people are stuck with houses in areas where a car is required in order to live. Sure, they'll minimize the use of the car to maybe only getting back and forth to work and getting groceries. But how can this be compared to a European town where people walk to work, walk to the grocery store, and food is brought in from local regions? Or am I being romantic about life in old areas of Europe?

My understanding of the history of the great depression was that at the time, upwards of 95% of the US population had relatives with farms, or had access to farming areas and that this went a long way towards reducing starvation and related diseases.

Now, however, less than 5% of the population have access to farms, and so virtually the entire US population is dependent on an interrupted food supply chain. Cutting off the food for several weeks would create absolute panic, with few viable options for most.

[Gerontion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', ' ')Countries like India or Thailand, that are "developing" but still live pretty close to the edge, I believe will experience the worst hardship. The strongest economies in the world are China, the US and Europe. When oil becomes scarce, we in the strong economies will pay the higher pricesand continue burning the oil, and there will be less left over for countries like India and Thailand and Honduras and Ghana, and they will lose their fertilizer, pesticides, medicines and transportation. Once they do, all those 7-child families are going to starve to death on their ruined farms, while those of us in the strong economies watch on TV. In the past, we would have sent them our excess grain stocks and processed cheese spread, but in the future, we won't have any to give, so we will just watch.

[MrBill]

Good points Gerontion. We should all think twice about making half-baked assumptions about places that we hardly know much about. Thank you.

[mackina1]

I think we'll do better than many places in Norway, with the biggest problem being the massive parts that are not inhabitable, and the lack of farmland. Power is provided by hydro plants, and we happen to have a undersized rail network (electrified) that could get the most vital transportation done.

When it comes to other countries, i think that almost all nations in the world will face total change in most aspects of society. Poor countries will probably be hit first, followed by the middle strata, industrialized countries with little native oil production and the ones that will take the least of an hit will be those that have a pretty large native prodution. F.ex the US is the third largest producer of oil in the world, and this production could serve as a life saver in the coming time of crisis. Of course th US is about as inefficient as they come.

[I_Like_Plants]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')
Given that the US has the furthest to fall (in terms of oil consumption) and that their suburban infrastructure is so unsustainable, I guess that they will probably crash the hardest.

[kadoomsoon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('culicomorpha', 'I') think Revi is right in that places that were developed before the car (walkable communities) will be much less affected than areas that depend crucially on the car such as suburban areas.

I don't think it is the loss of luxury items that is going to drive the problems in the US, it's the fact that many people are stuck with houses in areas where a car is required in order to live. Sure, they'll minimize the use of the car to maybe only getting back and forth to work and getting groceries. But how can this be compared to a European town where people walk to work, walk to the grocery store, and food is brought in from local regions? Or am I being romantic about life in old areas of Europe?

My understanding of the history of the great depression was that at the time, upwards of 95% of the US population had relatives with farms, or had access to farming areas and that this went a long way towards reducing starvation and related diseases.

Now, however, less than 5% of the population have access to farms, and so virtually the entire US population is dependent on an interrupted food supply chain. Cutting off the food for several weeks would create absolute panic, with few viable options for most.

[cube]

Q: Who will crash the hardest?

A: Whatever place that has a large % of people who think they're automatically "entitled" to something.

The most successful nation to transition will NOT necessarily be someplace that has nice walkable cities or lots of farmland but instead a place where people can rationally come to terms that the "good old days" are over and can NONVIOLENTLY transition.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'Q'): Who will crash the hardest?

A: Whatever place that has a large % of people who think they're automatically "entitled" to something.

The most successful nation to transition will NOT necessarily be someplace that has nice walkable cities or lots of farmland but instead a place where people can rationally come to terms that the "good old days" are over and can NONVIOLENTLY transition.

[Revi]

I think we're already seeing the crash here in Maine. People can't pay for their heating oil now. A lot of people live on the edge here anyway, but the price of oil makes it so much worse. We know at least 3 people who are selling their small in-town homes because they can't afford to heat their house with oil. I don't know where they will find cheaper digs, but they are on the edge now and need to sell. Their houses will be bought by people who can't afford to keep a big house 10 miles outside of town. They are moving back into walkable neighborhoods now, and buying houses that they wouldn't have considered living in a few years ago.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'G')oldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')We know at least 3 people who are selling their small in-town homes
because they can't afford to heat their house with oil.

[BillPeakOil]

I agree with Revi. It seems that many 'third world' countries don't use much energy now so they won't be affected as much. But, high energy usage countries will likely see the most changes.