[TorrKing]

There seems to be a consensus that the net-exporters of oil, will be able to handle the crash better than the net-importers. I beg to differ. If I use my own country (Norway) as an example:

- We have a huge fund, much of it tied in foreign economies. In other words it will practically nullify when the economies go bust. This is what we are supposed to rely on after we become importers. Many exporters don't even have this.
- We are possibly net importers in 2015, calculated from the decline and consumption trends.

Right now the oil is so cheap that an economy crashing can adjust to a degree, while in 2015 it will be so scarce and expensive that this train definitely has passed.

While I think our outright crash will be postponed, we will also live in fairytale land for a longer time. So when we become net importers (from where?) our economy will crash quickly since we will fall pretty much straight from the top to the bottom.

Of course, it will not fall right from the top of wealth, because of trading partners becoming poorer will affect our economy first. But comparatively (to the US for instance), it will not be so bad.

What do you guys think?

[SILENTTODD]

What is the current population of Norway? I’ve read it’s one that has stabilized, no growth (a major undiscussed problem for America).

What is your governments plan to deal with the end of its reserves? Does Norway have nuclear plants or planning for them?

What was the economy in Norway like in the 19th Century before the age of oil?

[kokoda]

The new powerhouse economies will be those that have oil. Even after it peaks ... countries like Norway, Russia and many middle eastern countries will still have enough for domestic use.

In fact we are now seeing a number of middle eastern countries reducing oil exports because of rises in domestic consumption.

As for who will crash hardest ... just about everyone else.

The USA's powerful economy will be able to endure skyrocketing oil prices a little longer then the rest of the world. Where as poorer nations will simply be priced out of the oil market.

This may give the US some breathing time as it continues to consume its, and other peoples oil well into the foreseeable future.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kokoda', 'T')he new powerhouse economies will be those that have oil. Even after it peaks ... countries like Norway, Russia and many middle eastern countries will still have enough for domestic use.

In fact we are now seeing a number of middle eastern countries reducing oil exports because of rises in domestic consumption.

As for who will crash hardest ... just about everyone else.

The USA's powerful economy will be able to endure skyrocketing oil prices a little longer then the rest of the world. Where as poorer nations will simply be priced out of the oil market.

This may give the US some breathing time as it continues to consume its, and other peoples oil well into the foreseeable future.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')
Given that the US has the furthest to fall (in terms of oil consumption) and that their suburban infrastructure is so unsustainable, I guess that they will probably crash the hardest.

[TorrKing]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'W')hat is the current population of Norway? I’ve read it’s one that has stabilized, no growth (a major undiscussed problem for America).

[mark]

Segmentation is the future. It’s easy for me to see “green zones” popping up all over the US. Certainly one exercise that Blackwater and other for hire mercenaries are training for in Iraq is protection of said green zones. The rich will congregate and be protected by private armies. The rest of us will do the best we can with ever more scarce resources. Eventually, as even the rich begin to suffer, conflict between green zones will take on a warlord and serfdom nature.

Just one possible future, but one I see as more likely each day.

[kjmclark]

If it weren't for climate change, I'd peg my own State of Michigan, in the US for the place that will crash the hardest; specifically Detroit and its suburbs. Consider the problems here:

- We're part of the US.
- Our main industry is producing gas guzzling cars and trucks.
- Said main industry is already having financial problems.
- We have among the country's worst sprawl problems.
- We have lousy race relations.
- We have a high poverty rate.
- We have no public transportation to speak of.
- The transportation authorities are continuing to expand road capacity and not considering public transportation.
- Wages have been falling already from globalization.
- The State government is struggling with solvency.
- We have a high percentage of subprime loans and ARMs.
- We are in the top four for foreclosures.
- We have the usual drug, gang, and crime problems.
- We are a fairly heavily armed state.
- Solar sucks in Michigan - we're overcast 3/4 of the time in Winter.

On the plus side:
- We have the best supply of fresh water of any location on Earth.
- We have lots of coastline, with very little severe storm risk.
- We only have rare, very mild earthquakes.
- We have fairly good farmland.
- We still have some manufacturing capacity.
- Trees grow like weeds here.
- Some parts of the state have excellent wind resources.

I expect this region to have among the worst short-term prognoses, but among the best long-term.

[NWMossBack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TorrKing', 'T')here seems to be a consensus that the net-exporters of oil, will be able to handle the crash better than the net-importers. I beg to differ. If I use my own country (Norway) as an example:

- We have a huge fund, much of it tied in foreign economies. In other words it will practically nullify when the economies go bust. This is what we are supposed to rely on after we become importers. Many exporters don't even have this.
- We are possibly net importers in 2015, calculated from the decline and consumption trends.

Right now the oil is so cheap that an economy crashing can adjust to a degree, while in 2015 it will be so scarce and expensive that this train definitely has passed.

While I think our outright crash will be postponed, we will also live in fairytale land for a longer time. So when we become net importers (from where?) our economy will crash quickly since we will fall pretty much straight from the top to the bottom.

Of course, it will not fall right from the top of wealth, because of trading partners becoming poorer will affect our economy first. But comparatively (to the US for instance), it will not be so bad.

What do you guys think?

[TorrKing]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TorrKing', 'T')here seems to be a consensus that the net-exporters of oil, will be able to handle the crash better than the net-importers. I beg to differ. If I use my own country (Norway) as an example:

- We have a huge fund, much of it tied in foreign economies. In other words it will practically nullify when the economies go bust. This is what we are supposed to rely on after we become importers. Many exporters don't even have this.
- We are possibly net importers in 2015, calculated from the decline and consumption trends.

Right now the oil is so cheap that an economy crashing can adjust to a degree, while in 2015 it will be so scarce and expensive that this train definitely has passed.

While I think our outright crash will be postponed, we will also live in fairytale land for a longer time. So when we become net importers (from where?) our economy will crash quickly since we will fall pretty much straight from the top to the bottom.

Of course, it will not fall right from the top of wealth, because of trading partners becoming poorer will affect our economy first. But comparatively (to the US for instance), it will not be so bad.

What do you guys think?

[KingM]

During a time of scarcity, the poor will do worse than the rich and the poor countries will do worse than the wealthy countries. This is how it always works, and not just in human societies.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'D')uring a time of scarcity, the poor will do worse than the rich and the poor countries will do worse than the wealthy countries. This is how it always works, and not just in human societies.

[NWMossBack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TorrKing', 'W')ell, would we have any choice? If we didn't buy oil, it would be too late to do anything assuming nothing had been done from before. And it sure doesn't look like anything is being done to me.

[Revi]

It will be a drag everywhere, but I think that places where people were used to a high energy lifestyle will be particularly bad. Here in the US we'll take it hard when we end up walking. Now's the time to get a place in a walkable community.

[KingM]

Look, in a true disaster, the US/France/UK/Japan/etc. first have to slip to the level of Taiwan, then to Mexico, then to Morocco, then to Kenya, then to Haiti, then to the Congo.

By the time the US looks like Mexico, Mexico will look like Kenya or Morocco. By the time the US looks like Haiti, the Haitians will be extinct.

[BobWallace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'L')ook, in a true disaster, the US/France/UK/Japan/etc. first have to slip to the level of Taiwan, then to Mexico, then to Morocco, then to Kenya, then to Haiti, then to the Congo.

By the time the US looks like Mexico, Mexico will look like Kenya or Morocco. By the time the US looks like Haiti, the Haitians will be extinct.

[Pixie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'D')uring a time of scarcity, the poor will do worse than the rich and the poor countries will do worse than the wealthy countries. This is how it always works, and not just in human societies.

[Pixie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BobWallace', '[')
Uh,....

Lots of those people on the bottom are subsistence farmers. They walk between their houses and fields. They go to sleep when the sun goes down.

Many have never bought a gallon of gasoline in their lives.

.

[dorlomin]

The UK will be absolutely hammered by North Sea Peak oil as it already runs at a trade deficit, is up to its eyeballs in state debt and personal debt and will start having to buy oil in large amounts with its dollars.

Its economy is headed for the toilet in the next 5 years.

Edited to clarify, the NS oil peaked in 99, but the uk is only now becoming a net importer. Its the first big industrial economy that will go down the tubes due to peak oil

[timbo]

There will be war. War at all levels until the world population hits around 1.5 to 2 billion, i.e. the overshoot gets resolved.

Desperate people fight wars, always.