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Re: Another Oil price Record

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Another Record

Unread postby Troyboy1208 » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 00:44:35

I always think its hilarious that we really actually never break a record because when adjusted for inflation the oil crisis of the 70s seems to reign supreme. Either inflation is rampant or this is a load of horse ****.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 16:30:39

Troy, my boy, the '70's oil crisis, as you rightly call it, was the result of a conscious effort of many of the main oil suppliers of the time to raise prices dramatically (unless I'm forgetting or misrepresenting history--if so ,please correct me).

What many of us find interesting (at least) is that the prices historically high prices now are flirting with those (inflation adjusted levels) even though there is no such conscious effort (that I am aware of) to jack up prices.

But I'm no expert, and I could have it all wrong. Maybe you could explain more fully what it is you think is horse**** and why.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Troyboy1208 » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 17:22:37

the load of horse **** is in reference to the notion that we havent hit the all time oil price because when adjusted for inflation the 70s was higher.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 17:34:53

Fair enough, but does that mean, to you, that there's nothing much to worrry about now?
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Troyboy1208 » Sun 14 Oct 2007, 12:38:42

There is so much to worry about that its overwhelming. I was hoping most of this stuff wouldnt get bad till im an old man...I guess thats not the case. Unfortunately climate change and peak oil are going to define my life.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby sirrom » Mon 15 Oct 2007, 06:23:15

Light Sweet Crude Oil 05:00 am
$84.19 $0.28 0.333% 6085 (vl)

still going strong
what did YOU do in the eco-war?

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Re: Another Record

Unread postby sirrom » Mon 15 Oct 2007, 06:37:21

$84.33

[web]http://www.321energy.com/charts/tmp/chart.jpg[/web]
what did YOU do in the eco-war?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayz1SK4KbX4
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby lowem » Mon 15 Oct 2007, 06:58:56

NYMEX crude oil is hitting new record highs every minute now.

...

$84.40
$84.48
$84.63
$84.65
$84.79
$84.84

...
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby lowem » Mon 15 Oct 2007, 07:01:21

...

$84.89
$84.95
$84.98

...
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby lowem » Mon 15 Oct 2007, 07:02:25

...

$84.99

...
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby lowem » Mon 15 Oct 2007, 07:03:04

... $85.19

Welcome to $85 oil.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Leanan » Mon 15 Oct 2007, 07:17:07

Okay, on Friday, they said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he cost of oil used by U.S. refiners averaged $37.48 a barrel in March 1981, according to the Energy Department, or $84.73 in today's dollars.


So, does breaking $85 mean we finally have a new inflation-adjusted all-time high?
"The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby simontay78 » Mon 15 Oct 2007, 07:18:13

Lowem!! I knew you will be here!! :)

Another look at the spike

Image

L
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby dukey » Mon 15 Oct 2007, 07:27:08

Nymex Crude Future 84.88

record ?
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby lowem » Mon 15 Oct 2007, 07:40:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'O')kay, on Friday, they said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he cost of oil used by U.S. refiners averaged $37.48 a barrel in March 1981, according to the Energy Department, or $84.73 in today's dollars.


So, does breaking $85 mean we finally have a new inflation-adjusted all-time high?


Probably. But it's also as likely that they will now start to claim that it was $90 in today's dollars. In fact, I've come across the $90 figure before - way before.

Reminds me of an old accountant joke, only now it goes like this :

Q : What was the price of oil in March 1981 in today's dollars?
A : What do you want it to be?
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby julianj » Mon 15 Oct 2007, 08:43:37

Today on the BBC it said oil had hit $85 (didn't say which marker).

The reason was - hold on to your britches - "Tensions in the Middle East".

They never tire of that one, do they?
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby julianj » Mon 15 Oct 2007, 08:45:08

Whoops, pipped at the post! And hello to Lowem - not seen you around for a while (mind you, I'm not here as much as I used to be).
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Leanan » Mon 15 Oct 2007, 09:42:02

Turkey shelled a Kurdish town in Iraq last night. I think it was a reminder that even if Iraq is divided into three separate countries, it won't reduce the violence.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Zardoz » Mon 15 Oct 2007, 10:03:39

CNN says it's mostly reduced inventories that's doing this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il prices kept rising Monday after closing at a new record in the previous session on worries that supplies are insufficient to meet coming winter demand and concerns over the conflict between Turkey and Kurds in northern Iraq.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery added $1.13 to $84.82 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, midday in Europe, rising to a new high of $85.19 before receding slightly.

Recent reports have indicated that crude inventories are falling. Last week, the U.S. Energy Department reported that U.S. oil supplies declined in the week ended Oct. 5, while the International Energy Agency said that oil inventories held by the world's largest industrialized countries have fallen below a five-year average.

"One of the factors that has provided underlying support to oil prices in recent weeks has been concerns that if we move into the Northern (Hemisphere) winter that oil market conditions are likely to remain tight," said David Moore, commodity strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.

But not to worry! It's all an "anomaly", and we'll see relatively cheap oil again soon:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ome analysts think the supply shortfall in last week's U.S. Energy Department inventory report is an anomaly. They doubt demand is as strong as recent forecasts by the department and the IEA suggest. These analysts expect oil prices will soon begin a seasonal decline to $70 a barrel, or lower.

CNN Money
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