[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', ' ')The Mayans were not particulaly enlightened by their collapse. They had city after city fall, and the refugees probably died.

[Ludi]

I guess I think we might could take some comfort in the survival of the Maya after the fall of their civilization, and the fact that it is possible to live in a way which is apparently collapse=proof, even if one is on the edges of civilization.

[Revi]

The meek really might inherit the earth. The movie Apocalypto was an excellent depiction of classic Mayan life. There is a small hunter-gatherer band which is captured and brought into the empire. They were in balance with their environment, but they are taken into a world that is not. The Mayans suffer from all sorts of ailments and live in a very stratified society.

The only part which was a bit unreal was the ending.

I agree with you, Ludi. There is a way to live on the fringes of this society in a way that is sustainable enough that we might just make it throught the nightmare which is coming.

[Ludi]

Have you read any of the books of Daniel Quinn, Revi?

[Nicholai]

Ishmael = godly
We're discussing it tomorrow in class, you guys got any ideas how I should go about bringing up PO without looking like the crazy kid?

[Ludi]

I don't know what you mean by "Ishmael = godly"

sorry....

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Iaato', 'S')peaking of Darwin, how are you going to hoe potatoes with those stubby little arms, Ferretlover?

[Judgie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'I') have been increasingly suspicious over the past couple of years that we may never get to this collective epiphany moment when modern humans wake up to the perils of resource depletion, over population, environmental degradation and the need to change our unsustainable lifestyles. Of course geology and reality will finally impose itself on humans in denial and we will be forced to consume less and live within constraints. But does this automatically mean that we will wake up to a collective epiphany experience of why this has happened and how we allowed ourselves to get there? Will these imposed resource constraints really bring the dawn of cultural transformation toward more sustainability as a cultural objective or will we just readjust to lowered expectations but still run around as the same stupid monkeys that we are, always have been and always will be?

What is the evidence out there that the arrival of ecological limits and energy limits will force a collective wake up in human societies?

None that I see. I'm losing faith in Peak oil and related environmental limits being a catalyst for change. I just don't see it happening and I fear that I projected on to that Peak Oil bell curve some similar bell curve where human ignorance represents the ascending part of the curve leading to a collective wake up at peak and a cultural transformation on the descent. There really is no evidence that this will be the case.

[Kaj]

Changes always produces strange and unknown results, so its way too late to suggest what the effects of PO, or climate change could be. We are still at the stages of denial. One day it will be undeniable fact.

Paradigm shifts are happening all the time. I'm at university, and around me the social power of women, gays and racial minorities is massive, and still growing. The people who fought for rights in these movements probably had their moments of despair, thinking they would never reach this point, you wait till 10 years in the future when all these people are occupying high profile jobs and changing the social fabric around them as they do it.

The environmental movement is gaining ground, incrementally. So is Peak Oil awareness. It will probably take at least major crisis (disaster) to really push it forward. And judging by the size of the coming crisis(es) I can't see how it wont change things in very fundamental ways. The system is so chaotic that we cannot know what is coming exactly, there will be surprises.

Now for the pretencious bit:

WE are the music-makers,
And we are the dreamers of dreams,
Wandering by lone sea-breakers,
And sitting by desolate streams;
World-losers and world-forsakers,
On whom the pale moon gleams:
Yet we are the movers and shakers
Of the world for ever, it seems.
...

We, in the ages lying
In the buried past of the earth,
Built Nineveh with our sighing,
And Babel itself with our mirth;
And o'erthrew them with prophesying
To the old of the new world's worth;
For each age is a dream that is dying,
Or one that is coming to birth.

- Arthur O'Shaughnessy

[Nicholai]

You really need to read Monte's 3 pages of PO talk. This will bring you down to Earth.

[Kaj]

Can you link me that?

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '.')..What is the evidence out there that the arrival of ecological limits and energy limits will force a collective wake up in human societies?

None that I see...

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '
')It seems that, in the end, we have come to equivalent conclusions. When two people with perspectives as different as ours wind up at the same intellectual destination, it says something.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')You was considering me "defeatist" several months ago and now you are submitting to that mode yourself.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', ' ')

The best approach is probably to try to reduce personal consumption as much as possible, be a good leader and role model for those around you, and try not to worry about it too much.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kaj', '
')The environmental movement is gaining ground, incrementally. So is Peak Oil awareness. It will probably take at least major crisis (disaster) to really push it forward. And judging by the size of the coming crisises I can't see how it wont change things in very fundamental ways. The system is so chaotic that we cannot know what is coming exactly, there will be surprises.

[kokoda]

It will take a monumental event.

Even when Peak Oil is confirmed most people will believe that alternative energy sources will be found.

When economies collapse people will believe that it is only a matter of time before they bounce back.

... and when those same people are starving in the streets they will believe that a relief agency is organising a food drop and sending in medical teams to save them.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'M')aybe after we've witnessed the ghastly starvation deaths of two or three billion of our kind there will be the slightest glimmer of recognition in our collective consciousness that we'll need to approach things a bit differently in the future.

Maybe. It may take even more than that.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turmoil', 'I')t's why insect species have survived for millions. They get by on nothing.

[gasguzzler]

i've tried to post a similar thought before, probably poorly worded. I doubt that peak oil will ever be recognized widely even when the problems it creates are everyday reality for the majority. I suspect peak oil will lead to tensions, which will lead to war (probably nuclear) which will lead to further shortages, famine, and die-off. Countries and groups will each blame their problems on any of countless other countries, groups and religions. Once the population correction is over, peak oil will go largely unrecognized by the masses as the cause of the catastrophe and whatever civilization manages to carry on in the future will emerge having learned squat about sustainable living. Maybe historians of the future, if they exist, will be able to see peak oil as the root cause for the coming collapse, but I doubt the people as they are living(or dying) through it will recognize the cause as anything other than war.