[btu2012]

The question of finding realistic proposals for dealing with PO is very complex and many aspects of this issue have already been debated on this board.

Given the experience accumulated from these debates, I would like to open a thread focused on how they could be combined to achieve a non-catastrophic response to PO, i.e. a set of actions which could prevent disastrous scenarios such as world war, civil wars, disintegration of society or its transformation into an authoritarian nightmare.

Much skepticism about such solutions is due to the fact that they would "never be accepted" by the people at large. Since what people are willing to accept depends markedly on the conditions they face, I believe that it is premature to write off an idea simply because people living in rich countries would not accept it now. In my experience people are very adaptable and they can undergo massive changes of attitude when facing a direct threat to their survival.

So I would like to propose a discussion of the best of breed ideas which have emerged from previous threads on this forum, with the aim of creating a coherent plan for dealing with PO constructively; including how to approach the problem politically and increase awareness of the issue.

As far as I understand (and I learned a lot from the debates on this board), it is largely agreed that any realistic solution must involve a few elements:

1. A program to achieve population reduction on a worldwide scale, as much as possible through ethical and non-coercive means

2. A program to reduce the average ecological footprint of each human. This includes multiple ways of reducing consumption of energy and other resources, and involves an extremely large number of issues:

-switching to low energy/low resource usage technology, such as fluorescent bulbs, energy-efficient housing etc

-reducing our reliance on fossil fuels for transport and on transportation itself, e.g. by using trains and ships instead of cars, using public transport, teleworking, re-localization and redevelopment to reduce commuting etc. It also includes some form of localizing food production closer to the consumers (many of these proposals appear to be known as "powerdown")

-development of alternate energy sources such as nuclear, wind, solar, tidal, sequestrated carbon etc. These cannot solve the problem of overshoot but could mitigate the crisis and provide sufficient energy while population is reduced to sustainable levels.

-a program to reduce pointless consumption; this in particular means the deconstruction of the present consumer economy and its replacement with a more frugal and rational economic system, a system which intrinsically takes into account the natural limits of its inputs as well as ecological costs.

I hope that this thread could provide a synthesis of the many partial conclusions reached through previous discussions, and would greatly appreciate participation from the experienced members of this board, and especially from the veterans of the previous threads where some of the proposal making up a final program have been debated in detail. The purpose is NOT to redo those debates, but to put their conclusions together so we can have a concentration of wisdom and a basic program of what could be done if and when the political climate changes.

Btu

[Carlhole]

The single best thing that could help us prepare for Peak Oil would be formal recognition of the impending crisis by government and media.

One of the questions asked of the democratic contenders the other night was, "Would you favor a $3.00/gal gasoline tax in order to stimulate conservation and the development of renewables?"

They all said "NO".

I'd be in favor of a gasoline tax of whatever amount that would stimulate conservation and development without totally wrecking the economy. I think this could be done if PO were a nationally recognized emergency that all americans needed to prepare for.

We have a crumbling infrastructure in the United States. I would take this gas tax of a dollar or two per gallon and devote it to enhancing and improving rail and light rail systems.

Significantly higher fuel costs would surely stimulate all sorts of innovation. I'm not sure how I'd deal with the regressive effect of a gas tax on the poor, but perhaps there are ways to deal with that issue.

I also wish that preparing for PO could be coordinated with the growth of the Chinese economy because all that low-wage, manufacturing cabability could be put to good use churning out solar panels and everything else.

It doesn't seem like anything can be done about peak until there's recognition of it. I think that is what the latest ASPO conference has hoped will result from it's participants' work.

So far... nothing about ASPO in the MSM.

Too bad. I think if we leave PO planning to the market, the market will present us with a very sudden, dire picture of our energy predicament.

[Ludi]

How would these proposals be implemented?


That's my main problem with these "Let's come up with a Plan!" threads. Nobody ever talks about how they would be presented to the public and implemented.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'H')ow would these proposals be implemented?


That's my main problem with these "Let's come up with a Plan!" threads. Nobody ever talks about how they would be presented to the public and implemented.

[kpeavey]

Each morning I have my coffee, read the news, take notes and hammer out a few thoughts of my own. I've got a pile of notes I refer to as the Peak Oil Instruction Manual.

A critical element in your plan is education. People must know the nature of the problem, otherwise they will not take action. People must be motivated to take action. Finally, they must have the information available to do what they can. After that its a matter of money and materials.

The issue is not simply peak oil and its ramifications. The core of the problem is overpopulation. If we solve the energy problem, we will eventually encounter the next. Peak Iron, Peak Zinc, Peak Arable Land, Peak (fill in the blank).

As a species, we consume the natural environment in order to transform it into ourselves, our progeny, our comfort, our tools and possessions, with little thought or concern for the environment we do it in or the future of the species. Political leadership is part of the limited vision, focusing on problems at hand as being a greater priority, letting future problems be dealt with by future leaders.

We can write up and mass distribute free copies of the Instruction Manual and hand them out free to every home in the world. Getting the people to read, understand and act is the challenge. There may be no technical solution for this challenge.

Nonetheless, there are plenty of things people will do, ignorant of the problem, which will contribute to a lessening of the troubles to come. The tools available are economics, health, comfort. This is what people want, give it to them, they will take it. They might not buy into the Sky Is Falling notions of peak Oil, Climate Change, or Overpopulation, but they may be highly interested in making their home energy efficient on a limited budget, growing organic food in their backyard, or even something as simple as how to get their lawn as green as possible without using city water. With the series of articles/books/websites/CD, or whatever media is used, all linked with a common theme or purpose, the end users may stretch their areas of interest to a wider picture.

What do we have, 5000 people using this forum? Everyone has a specialty. I'd think it would be possible to expand the PeakWiki resource in a manner that would promote participation, inform the interested, and gather useful information in an organized manner.
This would be the first step.

When the PeakWiki is in a form that is functional as a book published product, we organize and get it done. I think an entire series of published or CD products could be assembled in a wide range of topics from building a chicken coop to reloading ammo. The past century has removed people, especially in the developed world, from the skills which will be needed for daily living without plentiful electricity and petroleum. The internet offers the chance to regain that lost knowledge. If it can be made into a marketable product, I'm sure arrangements can be made with all the parties involved.

This would be a grass roots start or a fine contributor of a larger movement which would be needed to save the world from the humans.

I can't change the world and neither can you, but we can change a few minds. This can change a vote. Change enough votes, you change the world.

[Ludi]

There are already innumerable books and websites about "how to" stuff. No more of that kind of thing needs to be written.


My favorite website about "what to do"


http://pathtofreedom.com/


They even give free packets of brochures you can hand out to your friends and neighbors.


But once you've done that, as I have, how does one get the neighbors to actually implement the changes?


That's the problem, right there. The info is already available, solutions to our problems have already been worked out by any number of people.


The problem is how to motivate people to act.

[Homesteader]

the best way to motivate the masses is by the "shock doctrine". Think The Reich stag, Lusitania, 9/11, etc. . .People obey a "savior" like he/she was Jesus Christ himself when there is a major crisis.

Baa, Baa, Baa

Any event that is a long time coming and unfolding is perceived as a non-event.

[btu2012]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')It doesn't seem like anything can be done about peak until there's recognition of it. I think that is what the latest ASPO conference has hoped will result from it's participants' work.

So far... nothing about ASPO in the MSM.

Too bad. I think if we leave PO planning to the market, the market will present us with a very sudden, dire picture of our energy predicament.

[btu2012]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'H')ow would these proposals be implemented?


That's my main problem with these "Let's come up with a Plan!" threads. Nobody ever talks about how they would be presented to the public and implemented.

[btu2012]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')
The problem is how to motivate people to act.

[muon]

I think ways to motivate people are to make them believe something is in their best interests, but it has to be personal and relevant to them. Or through some kind of force or coersion, such as bans and prohibitions. Somewhere in there would fit things like incentives and disincentives, an incentive to change something considered neutral or negative into something beneficial or disincentive to change something positive or neutral into something non-desirable or less desirable. Also the easier you make something for people, the more likely they are to work with it, accessibility, cheapness would be examples. I think good education programs are also needed, not just in schools but to the wider community, there seems to be a lot of misunderstandings about environmental and scientific issues when I read the comments sections in news websites.

I have noticed a big change very recently in the global warming propaganda and how it's quietly moving into the mainstream in ways people might not notice unless they looked for it. Recycling is up in the UK with people being given green bins. There's more products made from renewable or non-oil products being promoted and sold popularly instead of in specialist shops, much more promotion of organic foods.

A few examples I have noticed are storage containers, instead of plastic they seem to be more wood, natural materials like wicker, rafia, hessian, willow rather than plastic. Rugs/mats made of natural materials over polypropylene. Giving people large green bins to keep outside their houses makes them more likely to recycle than requiring them to drive a mile to a recycling point. Only emptying their black bin once a fortnight gives them a need to use the green bin. Making the most in advertising of low-energy options cost-effectiveness and making those commonly available in local shops increases the sales.

I think we need to understand why people make the choices they do before we can change that. I think overpopulation is in some ways a red herring and we should look more for ways of improving life quality without killing the planet and population growth may just fall into decline naturally.

[kpeavey]

Most of the people are ignorant of the problem. They dont understand it, they don't care about it, they have problems of their own to deal with.

Education is needed to inform the people about the problem. Not all the people need to be informed, just the people who actively seek out a greater understanding of the problem. The rest do not care, won't understand, or would riot in the streets.

Those few interested people are the core of the movement needed to ease the Transition into a low energy world. These same people have a natural inquisitiveness to provide motivation for themselves. They will need information, some will need more information than others, as each person has a different level of understanding. There are a myriad of DIY articles out there, but there is a weakness in organizing the DIY articles in a form which is pertinent to the problem of Peak Oil. This is where the PeakWiki resource comes into play.

Just where do we find people with enough self motivation to learn, on their own, more about the problem of Peak Oil and its ramifications? I think that task has already been accomplished through peakoil.com, unless you know of another gathering of hundreds of people, from across the globe, with no: government or corporate sponsorship, political agenda, vested financial interest, or religious objectives.

The task is ours to take up or to ignore and leave in the hands of the many governments, corporations, institutions and religions in the world.

Do we collectively raise our own flag and declare to the world the Sky is Falling? Doing so would be to show the world we are a bunch of extremist doomers. Do we print up flyers and hand them out to our friends and family about TEOTWAWKI? I think a poor reception would be expected.

Our best plan of action is to continue what we have been doing, and expand upon it. More people will gather as time goes on. More knowledge will be accumulated, discussed, debated. At the same time, more brains are working on a plan of action for the group

As for the sheeple...
We can't save everyone, unless there is a messiah here who has not spoken up. We can't teach everyone. We can use tools at our disposal to motivate others to make changes for their benefit as well as for the world in terms of energy and environment. Our best tools for the ignorant and apathetic are economics, health, and comfort. Rather than sell them the idea of Peak Oil, sell them the benefits of a minor change here and there. If they like the results, they may want more.

Economics
example: incandescent light bulbs use 2-4 times the power of compact fluorescent bulbs for the same amount of light. Teaching people that the cost of running the bulb is far more than the cost of the bulb can get some people to make the switch. End result: they save money on their electric bill. Hidden result: they reduce demand for energy.

Health
example: walking to the store once in a while is good excercise
End result: enhanced fitness, weight control Hidden Result: reduced demand for gasoline

Comfort
example: free range eggs from chickens in your backyard taste better than the crap from Wal-Mart. End result: a fine breakfast. Hidden result: reduced demand for animal feed and industrial farming

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('btu2012', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')
The problem is how to motivate people to act.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('btu2012', 'A')lso how to deal with the opposition (especially religious) etc etc.

[Ferretlover]

[quote="Carlhole"]The single best thing that could help us prepare for Peak Oil would be formal recognition of the impending crisis by government and media. [quote]

Here is a possible way to influence media attention on PO:

"Have a news tip? Do you have information for an investigative story? If you know details about waste, fraud, abuse or other wrongdoing, contact us today. Go to [url=tips.usatoday.com]Send them a few facts[/url]

edit: I did send in a suggestion for PO. Maybe if a few others did the same?.....

[btu2012]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'D')o you mean religious opposition to an ecological paradigm? Re: Christianity and an ecological paradigm, there's http://www.creationcare.org/

[btu2012]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'I') did send in a suggestion for PO. Maybe if a few others did the same?.....

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('btu2012', '
')Are you suggesting that groups like Creationcare might help persuade them ?

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'H')ow would these proposals be implemented?That's my main problem with these "Let's come up with a Plan!" threads. Nobody ever talks about how they would be presented to the public and implemented.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', 'W')hat about being part of TPTB? Or at least make them acknowledge PO.