[Pops]

I have to say that I am not adding my a/c load to the grid – the capacitor on my unit fried and I don’t expect a replacement until after the next 3 days of 104*/78* and 60% humidity passes.

You are welcome.

[jboogy]

Pops, any AC ,hvac supply should have a capacitor that will work on your unit in stock, it might not be shape or physical size specific to your unit but they're usually held in with a thin , bendable metal strap that will work ,or tie-wrap it in.All the supply house needs to do is match the volt,amp draw numbers up with one they have in stock.

[Chesire]

yes well I am doing my part to make it crash. The AC has been running 24/7 even when I am not home )

[Ferretlover]

Vulnerabilities inadvertently built into the U.S. power grid, which is one of the most complex systems ever constructed, have been identified by a research team lead by Reka Albert, assistant professor of physics at Penn State. The team's topological analysis of the grid structure reveals that, although the system has been designed to withstand the random loss of generators or substations, its integrity may depend on protecting a few key elements.
"Our analysis indicates that major disruption can result from loss of as few as two percent of the grid's substations," says Albert, whose research team includes Istvan Albert, research associate in the Bioinformatics Consulting Center at Penn State, and Gary L Nakarado at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. One implication of the research is that identification of strategic points in the grid system can enhance defense against interruptions, whether by equipment failure, natural disasters, or human activity. Major blackouts caused by failures in the grid, such as the one that affected the northeastern part of the country during the summer of 2003, incur tremendous economic, public-health, and security risks.

The study, titled "Structural Vulnerability of the North American Power Grid," was published in a recent issue of the journal Physical Review E. The researchers constructed a model of the entire transmission grid with over 14,000 "nodes," including generators, transmission substations, and distribution substations, and over 19,000 "edges," corresponding to the high-voltage transmission lines that carry power between the nodes. …
Link

Sources: U.S. power grid vulnerable to cyber attack
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Researchers who launched an experimental cyber attack caused a generator to self-destruct, alarming the government and electrical industry about what might happen if such an attack were carried out on a larger scale, CNN has learned. …
CNN has honored a request from the Department of Homeland Security not to divulge certain details about the experiment, dubbed "Aurora," and conducted in March at the Department of Energy's Idaho lab.
In a previously classified video of the test CNN obtained, the generator shakes and smokes, and then stops.
DHS acknowledged the experiment involved controlled hacking into a replica of a power plant's control system. Sources familiar with the test said researchers changed the operating cycle of the generator, sending it out of control. Watch the generator shake and start to smoke »
The White House was briefed on the experiment, and DHS officials said they have since been working with the electric industry to devise a way to thwart such an attack. …
Link

[roccman]

The number one and two ailments of the NA Powergrid are:

1) NIMBY

2) BANANA

Permitting for power plants and transmission lines can take upwards of 10-15 years.

Then add another 3-5 years for construction.

Lookup:

1) The Navajo Transmission Line Project
2) AEP's 765kV Wyoming to New River Transmission Line Project
3) Desert Rock Energy Project

These are just 3 of the dozens of electric power utility projects I have worked on in the last 15 years.

The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 was not intended to be used as a road block to move projects forward, yet it has been.

If 'greenies' want green then I propose we bolt a geothermal plant on top of Old Faithful.

Otherwise-the lights will go out and not come back on as Richard Duncan has predicted...and probably a lot sooner than most expect.

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '
')Sources: U.S. power grid vulnerable to cyber attack
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Researchers who launched an experimental cyber attack caused a generator to self-destruct, alarming the government and electrical industry about what might happen if such an attack were carried out on a larger scale, CNN has learned. …
CNN has honored a request from the Department of Homeland Security not to divulge certain details about the experiment, dubbed "Aurora," and conducted in March at the Department of Energy's Idaho lab.

[jdumars]

And so terrorism becomes the universal patsy for all of our failing systems, which we as a people/elected government have let happen. The government has a "get out of jail free" card for:

- Oil and Natural Gas disruptions
- Electrical grid failure
- Domestic political unrest
- Failing economy

If something is about to fail due to neglect, look for a study immediately before that about how vulnerable it is to attack.

[Ferretlover]

Electricity Overseer Says Grid Must Grow
Resistance to New Lines Called a Threat
The electric-power industry in the mid-Atlantic region and other parts of the nation is not keeping up with long-term demand, the industry's reliability organization warned yesterday in its annual assessment.
The increasing use of wind and solar electricity sources, the eventual output of nuclear power plants being planned, and limits on greenhouse gas emissions will put new strains on the electricity transmission grid unless it can be strengthened, officials of the North American Electric Reliability Corp. said. Continued resistance to building high-voltage transmission lines threatens to increase the chance of power shortages, the organization said.
The amount of reserve electricity generation capacity available for emergency shortages will fall below a 15 percent safety margin by 2012 in the mid-Atlantic and Midwest and by 2009 in New England, requiring some combination of new power plants, more transmission lines and electricity conservation by consumers and business. …
power grid

[TheDude]

Found this: Is the World's Biggest Machine Breaking Down?, which relates to this article: The World's Biggest Machine is Breaking Down. Loads of comments to parse. Thought I'd read that this story of hackers making generators smoke was BS...

[Roccland]

When the builders of the Maple Ridge Wind farm spent $320 million to put nearly 200 wind turbines in upstate New York, the idea was to get paid for producing electricity. But at times, regional electric lines have been so congested that Maple Ridge has been forced to shut down even with a brisk wind blowing.

I have permitted close to 3,000 miles of transmission lines in over 15 years.

For years the industry has struggled with the patch work of land ownership and environmental regs to get power lines permitted and built.

This is a wake up call for those who think switching to solar/wind/nuc etc is gonna side step Dr. Duncan's theory.

Time is up.

Money is gone.

Options have been exhausted.

Any questions?

[kokoda]

... and there is your problem.

The energy density of wind, solar and other alternative energy sources may be too low to make the large scale replacement of fossil fueled power stations feasible.

Even several hundred wind turbines couldn't replace the electricity production of a single coal powered station.

[wakeupman]

I am sorry, I just couldn't keep quiet any longer and had to join up to give my boiling expression an outlet, I read your Heinburg NEWSWORTHY article on electric cars and I have to warn Heinburg to mend his ways or he is going to do major damage to America should ignoranter people listen to him.

Richard Heinburg, you must go to school so you can learn to use a calculator. And please stop trying to destroy America with your electric cars!

And STOP TRYING TO GET MY ELECTRICTY CUT OFF! OK?!?

That is what will happen if you build electric cars! Stop and think for one second, ok, try it once!

The average american uses 1.5 KWH of electricity in a 24 hour period.

A family of four uses 6 KWH of electricity in a 24 hour period.

An electric car uses 60 KWH in 24 hours to charge it.



Suddenly, you want to magically multiply all the families in america by TEN? and think you will have elctricity to do this? DO YOU KNOW WHAT MY ELECTRIC BILL IS GOING TO BE WHEN FAMILIES START TO BUY ELECTRIC CARS?!?!?!?

People will die, sir.

It is retarded to use good electricity to push 2000 pounds of steel to the grocery store to buy milk especially if you have to burn COAL to do it!



So you use the elite retarded idea of WINDMILLS to push 2000 pounds of steel to the grocery store and back when you could have taken the bus or walked?

WINDMILLS AND TECHNOLOGY WILL KEEP US IN THE LIFE OF HAPPY MOTORING!

One question, sir, who is paying you? Do you own a coal burning power plant or something?
Are you a coal miners daughter or something? What are you trying to DO HERE?

Why buy million dollar windmills they will push 15 cars an hour!
How stupid is that?


You are worse the the Bush's at least they burn cleaner gasoline!



You would spend 60, 000 dollars to put up a 1000 panel soar aray at 60 watts each for EACH FAMILY WHO OWNS A BEVY OF ELECTRIC CARS? @?!?!?#?$?%?^?!??

KNOCK, KNOCK, KNOCK, Hello in there! McFly? ANYONE HOME?!?

Electricity WILL NOT WORK, all it will do is to increase may dammed electric bill by 10 times, so the poor cant use power and I can use their share to run a stupid car to the store to get a gallon of milk or a sixpack.

I think you need to wake up, This continuous lifestyle is STUPID to continue, and building windmills to do it is esp[ecially idiotic.
and we CANNOT switch to electricity so stop talking about that and go get a job and do something usefulll!!!

Can you imagine a martian coming down and seeing us build windmills to push tons of metal around to pick up our mail while our legs get skinny and everyone gets fat and diabetic and spends billions on pills and surgery when ALL THEY HAD TO DO IS WALK MORE? I think the Martians would condemn this planet and build a nature theme park instead, it would be way more useful than rows of apartment couch potatoes.


OK?!? knock off tryong to destory America, kill thousands of poor people and make my electric bill unmanageable, ok?


Sorry about the tone of voice, I tend to get angry at msass murderers who implement policy that will kill people just cause they aren't smart enough to think of consequences.

[kokoda]

Quite right ... using electricity to replace gasoline doesn't solve any problems. It just creates a bevy of new ones.

Hydrogen is even worse since it would only return about 1/3 of the energy that was required to produce it.

If we were to go all electric tommorrow we would need to double, treble or even quadrople the size of our electrical power grids.

Windmills and solar panels aren't going to do that for you.

[JustaGirl]

wakeupman - Although I agree with your overall sentiment, some of your figures are way off. Can I ask where you are getting them? The average household in the US uses 10,656 kilowatt-hours per year(according to the DOE) or about 29 per day. What electric car uses 60 KWH to charge? The volt uses 16kwh for a full charge, some of the others that i've looked at use 6kwh.

Again, I don't think electric cars are going to be the panacea for peak oil, because they definitely are not, but your post is very misleading. We'll have electricity that will cost 10x as much, probably in the near future, but it won't be because of electric cars.

[vtsnowedin]

My own household uses 7 kwh per day per adult. based on two years of electric bills. We also use from 2 to 4 gallons of gas per day per adult driving cars depending on commute distance. Whats the enegy content of gas in kwhs? And what is the efficency of these electric cars if you figure in the cost of replacing and recycleing the battery components?
Our electric grid is old and needs to be upgraded and refurbished anyway. We need to get started and to size it right for the future not the past. A new DC line from a good wind farm site to the nearest market is as good a place to start as any.

[Frank]

A gallon of gasoline contains approx. 33 kwh of energy (I've seen numbers from 32-36 quoted.) The average ICE vehicle converts about 15% of this to mechanical energy. The average EV is closer to 80% or at least 5 times as efficient. This is why EV's are so important for local transportation needs.

60 kwh (A.C.) will propel my Toyota pickup conversion about 180 miles and it's a "lead sled."

The average commute in the USA is 32 miles; this would consume 8-10 A.C. kwh maximum with a lightweight EV. This may be a significant portion of the average households consumption but nationwide it would add approx. 25% to overall demand. The advent of PHEV's with a bit of intelligence could optimize grid loading. And how many of us have totally realized the efficiency/conservation that's possible in our own households? Personally I believe that 25% could be managed by reducing personal consumption.

I agree that the grid is outdated and needs substantial investment. Obama's discussed the need for this and will support it. We all need more exercise but the reality is that we depend on personal transportation in our day-to-day lives. The bottom line is that the grid needs to be improved as part of an overall national strategy to move towards renewable energy sources.

[vtsnowedin]

Sounds reasonable. Looking around I found that that the proposed new line in Texas will cost rate payers $4.00/ month. I can't imagine switching from fossil fuel to renewables any cheaper.

[JRP3]

wakeupman needs to wake up himself and do some research before posting. His numbers are completely off. EV's are more efficient than gas. Better battery technology is coming down in price and allowing greater range and longer life. Right now some people are recharging their EV's with home wind and solar. How many are refueling their gas cars with home drilled and refined gasoline?
Not to mention plenty of grid capacity at night, and the huge amount of electricity the average house wastes every day, leaves plenty of potential energy for EV use.
Oh yeah, people might just have to drive a little less

[lper100km]

Wakeupman’s rant does raise points that need to be addressed more calmly at the risk of allowing his rant to hijack the thread.

For instance, it can’t be assumed that electrical power is inherently highly efficient. There are problems at the point of any energy conversion and electrical power is not immune. Transmission line losses, every transformer en route to your house, even junction points cause losses, mostly expressed as heat. Battery charging has significant losses, between the charger and the battery itself as much as 40% although Lithium Ion is probably more like 25% overall.

I posted elsewhere some rounded out numbers comparing the equivalent of one gallon of gasoline and equivalent electrical use to drive a vehicle and repeat them here.

For gasoline:

Energy per gallon US: 36kWh
Efficiency in delivering energy to the road wheels: 25%
Overall energy overhead producing and delivering gas to the auto: 20%
Energy delivered to the wheels: 6.5kWh
Energy required to create that useful energy: 45kWh

Ratio: Useful energy delivered/energy required to produce: 0.14 ie only 14% of the energy represented by a gall of gas at the auto is actually used in propelling the vehicle.

For Electrical:

Battery energy: 36kWh
Efficiency delivering energy to the road wheels: 95%
Battery charging efficiency: 60% overall
Transmission line and other losses: 5%
Generation plant efficiency: 85%

Energy delivered to the wheels: 34.2kWh
Energy required to create that useful energy: 74kWh

Ratio: Useful energy delivered/energy required to produce: 0.46 ie roughly half of the energy represented by a charged battery in the auto is used in propelling the vehicle.

Ratio Electrical/Gasoline: 3.29 This is saying that one battery pack of 36kWh is roughly equivalent to three gallons of gasoline in a vehicle.

Feel free to pick away at the numbers. It may change some detail but I think the overall trend is sound.

This is all well and good, but Wakeup is right in pointing out that the domestic energy consumption and hence cost could and will escalate significantly. However, my thought is that even if EVs do not or cannot be used in significant quantity, the costs of electricity are bound to increase anyway as the cost of other energy sources escalates. It’s simple economics.

Electrical power is significantly more effective than gasoline, but not as efficient for this use as many expect or wish for. There really is no free lunch.

[yesplease]

The assumption for efficiency of delivering power to the wheels is a bit more than twice the average lper100km, at least in the US. Something like a hybrid may see ~25%+ BTE, but the average vehicle is somewhere around 15%.