[chuck6877]

What is the US Dollar Index All time low?

We're currently at 79.07.

I know it's dipped slightly below 80 several times in history but what is the lowest?

Thanks,
Chuck

[strider3700]

78.19 is the all time low for the index

today is the all time low for the dollar vs the euro

[chuck6877]

Thanks Strider.

For the longest time there was a lot of fear that as soon as the index broke below 80 it would crash.

I guess the real line in the sand and crash down point is 78.19.

Let's hope she holds.............(yea right)

Chuck

[Iaato]

Well, I'm kind of floored, but I guess I should have known. Propping up wall street buddies and the stock market are the Fed's focus. It was going to be bad any way it got sliced. Talk about cognitive dissonance. Why on earth did I think that they would do what was right, rather than the easy sleazy way out? None of it is going to help in the end anyway, so I guess they went for the popularity contest.

Did you notice Greenspan's rush to get his 4 cents in before the announcement? Greenspan knew that Bernanke would be committed to cutting big, and so Greenspan said that the Fed would eventually have to raise rates. That way, when the outcome of the 50 basis point cut goes badly (which it would have done even without a cut), Greenspan can say I told you so. The little gnome is watching his place in the history books slide towards the bottom as this thing crashes. I bet Bernanke can't stand Greenspan. Those two are like crabs scuttling up the sides of a bucket. Greenspan is thinking he's got a claw hooked on the rim of the bucket.

So how long can the Fed et al. prop the stock market? A big decline in the stock market will probably be the trigger for exposure of the derivative debacle and bankers' insolvency. As long as the stock market stays up, I think they can keep the bodies hidden.

[sicophiliac]

Actually inflation (If you buy the official figures) was down somewhat in August. Probably due to the refineries coming back on strong and gas/diesel prices being relatively tame relative to oil prices. I am sure the slowing economy also helped keep things in check too. I must say and I am no economist the US economy seems to be remarkably resilient and pretty damn tough to stomp out. Oil prices up 4x, 9/11, dotcom bubble.. now the housing bubble bursting and things are still putting along. Most doomers here would have you believe that half the country would be ablaze in riots and utter chaos by this point. Two years post peak oil right?
Dont forget that the lower value of the dollar makes imports more expensive and exports cheaper, thus a narrower trade deficit could be a result and many Americans might see this as a good thing to begin to bring back our manufacturing base. Not to say that the high oil prices wont offset some of that trade deficit but maybe a lower dollar is part of the plan.
On the negative end of things I personally do see that eventually these oil prices will begin to take their toll. Basic necessities will begin to cost more and that will likely be what finally takes us into a recession. Well probably tread water through the winter I would suspect, barring heating oil issues because oil and gas prices typically have dropped in the winter time which should give us another 6 months or so. Next year however when the US is looking at 80-90 dollar a barrel oil and gas averaging 4 dollars a gallon it will start to unravel. Things wont fall apart overnight as many here like to hype up and perversely hope for.

Here are my economic predictions summed up:

late 2007/early 2008:
Tame economic growth maybe 2% but no recession, housing market will somewhat level off, no rebound but they wont tank too much more.
Oil prices around 70-75 a barrel barring a very cold winter. No major inflationary pressures thus far.

Mid 2008:
Oil surges again to new highs in 80s, maybe 90 a barrel due to global demand plus driving season. Gas at 4 bucks a gallon in many parts of the country. Consumer spending begins to crash, inflationary pressures finally begin to manifest themselves. Most all commodities will be way up. US dollar beings going downhill again at a faster rate.

Late 2008/early 2009:
Oil levels off in the 80s for awhile despite the US recession due to overall global demand and inability for production to meet it. US dollar probably 20-30% lower than where its at today. Fed very reluctantly starts to raise rates with some excuses, probably claiming "temporary inflation issues" Things begin to look like the 1970s again. Only economic sectors that will thrive will be energy and perhaps gold and precious metals related stocks. OPEC starts running out of excuses to why it cant meaningfully boost production and at last peak oil goes mainstream. Probably becomes a major factor in the next presidents agenda. Perhaps a bit of a bubble AGAIN in the atl energy stocks (see 2005-2006 for my reference) thus propping up the markets to some extend as people look for reasons to be optimistic.

Please note, I have no degrees in economics, no college degree and I might not know what the hell I am talking about. This is based entirely on what I have observed over the past few years from watching the news, reading online articles, reading posts here ect ect.

[Dukat_Reloaded]

The FED says they are an inflation fighter but with gold and oil at all time highs, you would have thought they would have increased rates, not slashed them. I remember all the jawboning they gave out in the first part of the year in 2006 saying that rates will be going higher which caused commodities to drop, now they are slashing rates saying they are unconcerned with inflation, what did ben say the CPI was before he cut rates? Really the whole thing is a joke, if people do not have confidence in the US dollar long term rates will go up and it will begin deflation, Gold will go up and some other commodities which are linked to fear, but the housing and heaps of jobs are going to go down and lost because of this nitwit. Just because people are in too much debt and unable to raise rates as they did around 1980 does not mean that these debts will be inflated away, there will be people with a large mortgage still unable to pay back their house because they can't find a job no matter how low rates go. Cutting rates will not inflate the property market, lenders will not make loans to new home owners, all this extra liquidity will go into commodities, it will go were the fed does not want it to do so I see it very stupid that they think lowering rates will prop up the property market, more likely they will see the gains in commodities and sell their house for whatever they can get for it and invest in commodities. The FED has make a HUGH mistake.

[EndOfGrowth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sicophiliac', 'A')ctually inflation (If you buy the official figures) was down somewhat in August. Probably due to the refineries coming back on strong and gas/diesel prices being relatively tame relative to oil prices. I am sure the slowing economy also helped keep things in check too. I must say and I am no economist the US economy seems to be remarkably resilient and pretty damn tough to stomp out. Oil prices up 4x, 9/11, dotcom bubble.. now the housing bubble bursting and things are still putting along. Most doomers here would have you believe that half the country would be ablaze in riots and utter chaos by this point. Two years post peak oil right?
Dont forget that the lower value of the dollar makes imports more expensive and exports cheaper, thus a narrower trade deficit could be a result and many Americans might see this as a good thing to begin to bring back our manufacturing base. Not to say that the high oil prices wont offset some of that trade deficit but maybe a lower dollar is part of the plan.
On the negative end of things I personally do see that eventually these oil prices will begin to take their toll. Basic necessities will begin to cost more and that will likely be what finally takes us into a recession. Well probably tread water through the winter I would suspect, barring heating oil issues because oil and gas prices typically have dropped in the winter time which should give us another 6 months or so. Next year however when the US is looking at 80-90 dollar a barrel oil and gas averaging 4 dollars a gallon it will start to unravel. Things wont fall apart overnight as many here like to hype up and perversely hope for.

Here are my economic predictions summed up:

late 2007/early 2008:
Tame economic growth maybe 2% but no recession, housing market will somewhat level off, no rebound but they wont tank too much more.
Oil prices around 70-75 a barrel barring a very cold winter. No major inflationary pressures thus far.

Mid 2008:
Oil surges again to new highs in 80s, maybe 90 a barrel due to global demand plus driving season. Gas at 4 bucks a gallon in many parts of the country. Consumer spending begins to crash, inflationary pressures finally begin to manifest themselves. Most all commodities will be way up. US dollar beings going downhill again at a faster rate.

Late 2008/early 2009:
Oil levels off in the 80s for awhile despite the US recession due to overall global demand and inability for production to meet it. US dollar probably 20-30% lower than where its at today. Fed very reluctantly starts to raise rates with some excuses, probably claiming "temporary inflation issues" Things begin to look like the 1970s again. Only economic sectors that will thrive will be energy and perhaps gold and precious metals related stocks. OPEC starts running out of excuses to why it cant meaningfully boost production and at last peak oil goes mainstream. Probably becomes a major factor in the next presidents agenda. Perhaps a bit of a bubble AGAIN in the atl energy stocks (see 2005-2006 for my reference) thus propping up the markets to some extend as people look for reasons to be optimistic.

Please note, I have no degrees in economics, no college degree and I might not know what the hell I am talking about. This is based entirely on what I have observed over the past few years from watching the news, reading online articles, reading posts here ect ect.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Iaato', 'W')ell, I'm kind of floored, but I guess I should have known. Propping up wall street buddies and the stock market are the Fed's focus. It was going to be bad any way it got sliced. Talk about cognitive dissonance. Why on earth did I think that they would do what was right, rather than the easy sleazy way out? None of it is going to help in the end anyway, so I guess they went for the popularity contest.

Did you notice Greenspan's rush to get his 4 cents in before the announcement? Greenspan knew that Bernanke would be committed to cutting big, and so Greenspan said that the Fed would eventually have to raise rates. That way, when the outcome of the 50 basis point cut goes badly (which it would have done even without a cut), Greenspan can say I told you so. The little gnome is watching his place in the history books slide towards the bottom as this thing crashes. I bet Bernanke can't stand Greenspan. Those two are like crabs scuttling up the sides of a bucket. Greenspan is thinking he's got a claw hooked on the rim of the bucket.

So how long can the Fed et al. prop the stock market? A big decline in the stock market will probably be the trigger for exposure of the derivative debacle and bankers' insolvency. As long as the stock market stays up, I think they can keep the bodies hidden.

[roccman]

I actually think this cut was to save a hedgy.

Something big and ugly needs fix'n (if it can be fixed).

They picked the lesser of two evils.

[Ferretlover]

Gold Confiscation: Will it happen again?
“The longer-term outlook for the dollar is unquestionably more bleak than at any time since it assumed its role as the world’s reserve currency.”
— John Embry, Investor’s Digest, March 4, 2005
For the first time, Warren Buffett is betting against the U.S. dollar. Given the worsening trend, it is necessary to diversify out of the dollar or, as Buffett puts it, “to build an ark.” Paul Volcker, the former head of the Federal Reserve Board, says that unless America changes course there is a “75 percent” chance of an economic crisis in the next five years. Steven Roach, Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley, predicts that America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding “economic Armageddon.” …
The problem is that the very circumstances that could make your gold so valuable could also result in its being taken from you. In 1933, in order to stabilize the monetary system, President Franklin D. Roosevelt, under Executive Order No. 6102, confiscated all privately owned gold in the United States. …
link

PRESS RELEASE: Treasury Department Claims Power to Seize
Gold, Silver -- and Everything Else, GATA Says
The U.S. Government has the authority to prohibit the private possession of gold and silver coin and bullion by U.S. citizens during wartime, and, during wartime and declared emergencies, to freeze their ownership of shares of mining companies, the Treasury Department has told the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee.
But gold and silver owners aren't alone in such jeopardy. For the U.S. Government claims the authority in declared emergencies to seize or freeze just about everything else that might be considered a financial instrument. …

link

[MC2]

Markets the world over are up 2-3 % today - not exactly what some expected. Is it possible they were more concerned about the loss of our purchasing power than their return on our T bills?
Someone please explain this.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('truecougarblue', 'T')he fed is pushing on a string. The only reason they made this move was to provide themselves with "plausible deniablity".

There is nothing they can do at this point to re-inflate the global credit bubble. The nipponese dropped their rate to 0% in the early 90s and still couldn't pull out of credit induced deflation. This bubble makes that one look like hopscotch in the park.

This rally in the market will last maybe a week, maybe two, and then all bets are off.

My only remaining question is whether this will cause sufficient demand destruction to stave off PO a few more years.

[ShinyOldLady]

I posted a question on the consequences of the fed rate cut on another topic before having read this thread, sorry.

But from what I am picking up here, consequences of such a large fed rate cut are generalized as:
* devaluation of dollar against foreign currency
* lower interest on savings accounts and instruments prompting lower savings rates
* higher risk of inflation (because there are more printed dollars in the pool of availability, so it takes more dollars to buy an item?)

Upsides:
* more investment in US economy
* lower mortgage rates/increased number of mortgages issued
* more houses built in response to demand, economy experiences growth in all things homeowner
* more available mortgage money means more people vying for same property and hence house values go up

For us economics dummies, is there anything basic I am missing here? Cuz our savings rate is terrible anyway, so it seems unlikely we as a nation will start saving less. Doesn't seem like much of a downside. Set me straight here!

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', 'M')arkets the world over are up 2-3 % today - not exactly what some expected. Is it possible they were more concerned about the loss of our purchasing power than their return on our T bills?
Someone please explain this.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'H')elicopter Ben is going to try to inflate away the debt...

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'S')omebody has to invent a word that means something like stagflation plus unpayable debt.

[RdSnt]

It's considerably more complicated than looking at the historical low, since it is a relative measure.
All the major currencies are fiat currencies and they fluctuate with each other in a relative fashion.
The purchasing power of that 78.19 was considerably higher than the current 79.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', '7')8.19 is the all time low for the index

today is the all time low for the dollar vs the euro

[RdSnt]

Ah, but it's not a single cut, it was two cuts. The Fed Fund rate and the Discount rate; each was cut 0.50%.
Nobody saw that coming, well I suppose except for the big boys on Wall St. who control all this.
Just watch the quarterly reports coming out soon for the likes of JPMorgan and other cockroaches. You can bet their spreadsheets are going to put lovely number in there based on foreknowledge of these cuts.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'W')hat I don't understand is why the 0.50% cut is being taken as a surprise.

It was obvious this was going to happen.

The US economy is housing-centric. Housing must be protected at ANY AND ALL COSTS, especially now that it's so fantastically leveraged.

[Byron100]

Heineken wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Fed is not trying to prop up the stock market, it is trying to prop up housing. The stock market is a secondary concern.

The biggest single threat to TPTB in the US right now is falling housing prices, especially right before a presidential election. TPTB will do anything it can to stop that.

I agree that the Fed made the wrong move. The US needs to take its lumps. The longer it puts that off, the worse the final "settling up" will be.

[FoxV]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')he Fed is not trying to prop up the stock market, it is trying to prop up housing. The stock market is a secondary concern.