by threadbear » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 15:06:15
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
The European Central Bank has but one written objective, preserve the value of the Euro.
The American Central Bank (The Fed) has two written objectives keep economic growth at a healthy clip and restrain inflation.
So in a rising inflation world, which central bank is going to keep its currency strong?
In a rising inflation world, all hard currency will suffer as they are bound by treaty to keep currencies from gyrating including the USD. Remember European Central Bank and the Japan are leading players with a history of intervening markets to stablize currencies. US and UK are more reluctant. I fail to see how it is possible for inflation rates to go a lot higher in one of the major players and not the other as we are in a global economic system. I do see inflation and USD falling, but at a moderate rate. If your savings in USD, you will see it eat away slowly, until it is worthless.
To answer your question, I would buy companies with hard assets like mining and oil. These two types of businesses are more sensitive to real inflation. Energy plays a small role in government inflation indexes. Housing plays a greater role and housing prices are going down.
As for monetary policy, you have a narrow view of their policies. You are correct in that European Central Bank has a primary mission of maintaining price stability. Below is their mission statement and also US for comparison.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')"Without prejudice to the objective of price stability", the Eurosystem will also "support the general economic policies in the Community with a view to contributing to the achievement of the objectives of the Community". These include a "high level of employment" and "sustainable and non-inflationary growth".
The Treaty establishes a clear hierarchy of objectives for the Eurosystem. It assigns overriding importance to price stability. The Treaty makes clear that ensuring price stability is the most important contribution that monetary policy can make to achieve a favourable economic environment and a high level of employment.
These Treaty provisions reflect the broad consensus that
the benefits of price stability are substantial (see benefits of price stability). Maintaining stable prices on a sustained basis is a crucial pre-condition for increasing economic welfare and the growth potential of an economy .
the natural role of monetary policy in the economy is to maintain price stability. Monetary policy can affect real activity only in the shorter term (see the transmission mechanism). But ultimately it can only influence the price level in the economy.
The Treaty provisions also imply that, in the actual implementation of monetary policy decisions aimed at maintaining price stability, the Eurosystem should also take into account the broader economic goals of the Community. In particular, given that monetary policy can affect real activity in the shorter term, the ECB typically should avoid generating excessive fluctuations in output and employment if this is in line with the pursuit of its primary objective.
Compare that with the Federal Reserve of US.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')pen market operations as directed by the FOMC are the major tool used to influence the total amount of money and credit available in the economy. The Federal Reserve attempts to provide enough reserves to encourage expansion of money and credit in keeping with the goals of price stability and sustainable growth in economic activity.