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Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo"

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&q

Unread postby Iaato » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 11:33:39

I think this is why they had to drop it 50 bits. Compliments of Dagg-PB board, the short term cost of money as the most urgent need:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')So what does the above chart tell us? On September 12 the money market was truly ugly, with a big "hump" in the cost of money from 1 month out to 6 months. The spread in interest rates between 3 months and O/N was almost exactly 50 bp. The reason was that Asset Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP) that typically came due in 30-90 days was not being rolled over and everyone was scrambling for money to replace it. This is also why the ECB was constantly pumping huge amounts of money into the system: it was bailing out the banks' SIVs that could not find any money to replace their ABCPs (I wrote elsewhere that the ECB was doing the Fed's laundry - this is the reason).

At a borrowing cost of 5.70-5.80% against assets that yielded maybe 5.50% and leveraged 10-20x, various SIVs and other borrow short - lend long players were bleeding money like crazy. The situation was indeed critical and the cost of money had to be brought down sharply or the banks would have to sell collateral (CDOs, CLOs, etc.) in a depressed market and write huge losses in their books - If they could find a buyer, that is."


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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 11:43:04

You all sound like a bunch of greedy capitalist pigs, worried about your wealth. Take a hike in the woods with the dog for C'hrists sake!!!

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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby mattduke » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 11:46:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('midnight-gamer', 'm')y wife is very reluctant to do anything with our savings in any way.

You are "doing something" with your savings! You are choosing to own dollars rather than to own stocks or bonds or euros or gold or whatever. There is no escaping the marketplace. You cannot "not do anything" with your savings. You must choose which types of property you want to own, and you have chosen dollars. Actually, I suppose you probably do not even "own dollars". Most likely what you really own are "bank promises to pay you dollars." I hope this response does not sound rude because I do not intend it that way.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&q

Unread postby Jester » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 12:19:14

Here in Canada, the effects were almost instant, our dollar is just under par with the US now (in the 99.xx cent range).

The realty expert on the news warned people here to buy now if they plan to, as in the next couple of months it will likely become much harder to get a mortgage (and even harder to get a business loan). He said that the lenders will be much more careful with how people qualify.

He also said people better lock in now for their rates (Canada is slightly different than the US on how long you can lock a rate in) because he feels it's quite realistic to see double digit rates on the horizon...

On a personal note, I had a fairly large cheque coming to me in US funds, which got to me just as dollar spiked up... if the cheque had arrived 1 day earlier, I'd have made a fair bit more. :(
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby FoxV » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 12:20:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'Y')ou all sound like a bunch of greedy capitalist pigs, worried about your wealth.

First people will worry about their wealth
Then people will worry about their jobs
Finally people will worry about their meals

As for taking the dog for a walk in the woods, I believe we already have a topic on that
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&q

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 12:31:54

Nope. Health is 1 & the rest are 0's.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby Iaato » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 12:39:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', 'A')s for taking the dog for a walk in the woods, I believe we already have a topic on that

Oh, so sly. Actually I am taking the neighbor's dog for a walk in the woods later, but I don't plan to eat him. At least not this week.

Here's a clear summary on what 50 basis points means for mortgages of all sorts and flavors.

What the Fed's rate cut does--and doesn't--mean for mortgages
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby nth » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 14:11:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
The European Central Bank has but one written objective, preserve the value of the Euro.

The American Central Bank (The Fed) has two written objectives keep economic growth at a healthy clip and restrain inflation.

So in a rising inflation world, which central bank is going to keep its currency strong?


In a rising inflation world, all hard currency will suffer as they are bound by treaty to keep currencies from gyrating including the USD. Remember European Central Bank and the Japan are leading players with a history of intervening markets to stablize currencies. US and UK are more reluctant. I fail to see how it is possible for inflation rates to go a lot higher in one of the major players and not the other as we are in a global economic system. I do see inflation and USD falling, but at a moderate rate. If your savings in USD, you will see it eat away slowly, until it is worthless.

To answer your question, I would buy companies with hard assets like mining and oil. These two types of businesses are more sensitive to real inflation. Energy plays a small role in government inflation indexes. Housing plays a greater role and housing prices are going down.

As for monetary policy, you have a narrow view of their policies. You are correct in that European Central Bank has a primary mission of maintaining price stability. Below is their mission statement and also US for comparison.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')"Without prejudice to the objective of price stability", the Eurosystem will also "support the general economic policies in the Community with a view to contributing to the achievement of the objectives of the Community". These include a "high level of employment" and "sustainable and non-inflationary growth".

The Treaty establishes a clear hierarchy of objectives for the Eurosystem. It assigns overriding importance to price stability. The Treaty makes clear that ensuring price stability is the most important contribution that monetary policy can make to achieve a favourable economic environment and a high level of employment.

These Treaty provisions reflect the broad consensus that
the benefits of price stability are substantial (see benefits of price stability). Maintaining stable prices on a sustained basis is a crucial pre-condition for increasing economic welfare and the growth potential of an economy .
the natural role of monetary policy in the economy is to maintain price stability. Monetary policy can affect real activity only in the shorter term (see the transmission mechanism). But ultimately it can only influence the price level in the economy.

The Treaty provisions also imply that, in the actual implementation of monetary policy decisions aimed at maintaining price stability, the Eurosystem should also take into account the broader economic goals of the Community. In particular, given that monetary policy can affect real activity in the shorter term, the ECB typically should avoid generating excessive fluctuations in output and employment if this is in line with the pursuit of its primary objective.

EU monetary policy

Compare that with the Federal Reserve of US.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')pen market operations as directed by the FOMC are the major tool used to influence the total amount of money and credit available in the economy. The Federal Reserve attempts to provide enough reserves to encourage expansion of money and credit in keeping with the goals of price stability and sustainable growth in economic activity.

Federal Reserve Structure and Mission
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby perdition79 » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 14:37:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'M')y economic doomometer hit gold, then bags of rice, and finally ammo before it just popped and I have glass all over the floor now.


I don't think I spilt glass and mercury all over the floor when my doomometer burst. I think it was crap, from when I crapped my pants over the dollar index dropping almost one percent in a day!

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

78.59!!!!! The dollar's in the crapper, gold's at record levels, the loonie is damn near at partiy. Remember that mid-day stock trading video with that guy crapping his pants over a 2/10th's drop in the dollar index? I bet that guy just drank the kool-aid.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&q

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 14:40:18

The ECB does not have to bow to political pressure.

The chairman of the ECB isn't dragged in front of a popularly elected Congress to explain himself on a monthly basis.

The notes of the ECB meetings aren't dragged through the media's filter and attacked by the London/Paris/Frankfurt business elite.

European central bankers can raise rates to stamp out inflation (and crush economic growth) without fear of losing their jobs.

In America, Congress has to renew the term of the Federal Reserve Governors. As you can imagine, that makes them less willing to raise rates to combat inflation and gives them an incentive to cut rates during election season.

Basically, the Fed is not independent enough to do its job and preserve the value of the American dollar.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 14:50:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('midnight-gamer', 'I') realize that putting my savings into gold or euros would have been a wise thing to have done several years ago. I had been putting it off until I saw something dramatic enough to prompt doing it. The problem I have had all along is that my wife is very reluctant to do anything with our savings in any way.
Also, this may seem like a simple thing, how do I hold my euros or what ever, once I change it? In the bank, buried in the lawn, ect.


In Canada, you can open what's called an international account and convert US dollars into Canadian. I imagine that you can do the same thing in the US, and that if you can convert to Canadian dollars you could convert to Euro, Swissies, as well. If you do try, let us know how it works out.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&q

Unread postby Revi » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 14:50:11

I wish I had put my savings in loonies when I thought of it a couple of years ago. That dollar index is really scary! What is going on? It looks like a bobsled run! Only what's at the bottom?
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 14:57:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'Y')ou all sound like a bunch of greedy capitalist pigs, worried about your wealth. Take a hike in the woods with the dog for C'hrists sake!!!

Image


I understand how you feel. I feel sometimes I am way too preoccupied with this. It started as a genuine interest born out of concern for income as I can't work due to ill health. It then became something of an obsession and a game, involving trying to understand belief systems, closed self referential loops in logic etc...in other words, a kind of epistemological pursuit, and a study of group dynamics. This spins off into a deeper understanding of how religion works and the madness of crowds or mob psychology. And now...I actually am trying to spend more time with my dog as she was getting depressed as I was devoting to much play time to other things. So...your post is kind of apt.

However, I don't think that what you have here is predominantely greed, it's more people interested in preservation of capital. It's something everyone should take seriously. Prior to the hyper inflation of Weimer Germany, those who spent too much time walking their dogs, and not tending to survival issues, ended up pimping their wives and children on street corners.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 15:06:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
The European Central Bank has but one written objective, preserve the value of the Euro.

The American Central Bank (The Fed) has two written objectives keep economic growth at a healthy clip and restrain inflation.

So in a rising inflation world, which central bank is going to keep its currency strong?


In a rising inflation world, all hard currency will suffer as they are bound by treaty to keep currencies from gyrating including the USD. Remember European Central Bank and the Japan are leading players with a history of intervening markets to stablize currencies. US and UK are more reluctant. I fail to see how it is possible for inflation rates to go a lot higher in one of the major players and not the other as we are in a global economic system. I do see inflation and USD falling, but at a moderate rate. If your savings in USD, you will see it eat away slowly, until it is worthless.

To answer your question, I would buy companies with hard assets like mining and oil. These two types of businesses are more sensitive to real inflation. Energy plays a small role in government inflation indexes. Housing plays a greater role and housing prices are going down.

As for monetary policy, you have a narrow view of their policies. You are correct in that European Central Bank has a primary mission of maintaining price stability. Below is their mission statement and also US for comparison.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')"Without prejudice to the objective of price stability", the Eurosystem will also "support the general economic policies in the Community with a view to contributing to the achievement of the objectives of the Community". These include a "high level of employment" and "sustainable and non-inflationary growth".

The Treaty establishes a clear hierarchy of objectives for the Eurosystem. It assigns overriding importance to price stability. The Treaty makes clear that ensuring price stability is the most important contribution that monetary policy can make to achieve a favourable economic environment and a high level of employment.

These Treaty provisions reflect the broad consensus that
the benefits of price stability are substantial (see benefits of price stability). Maintaining stable prices on a sustained basis is a crucial pre-condition for increasing economic welfare and the growth potential of an economy .
the natural role of monetary policy in the economy is to maintain price stability. Monetary policy can affect real activity only in the shorter term (see the transmission mechanism). But ultimately it can only influence the price level in the economy.

The Treaty provisions also imply that, in the actual implementation of monetary policy decisions aimed at maintaining price stability, the Eurosystem should also take into account the broader economic goals of the Community. In particular, given that monetary policy can affect real activity in the shorter term, the ECB typically should avoid generating excessive fluctuations in output and employment if this is in line with the pursuit of its primary objective.

EU monetary policy

Compare that with the Federal Reserve of US.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')pen market operations as directed by the FOMC are the major tool used to influence the total amount of money and credit available in the economy. The Federal Reserve attempts to provide enough reserves to encourage expansion of money and credit in keeping with the goals of price stability and sustainable growth in economic activity.

Federal Reserve Structure and Mission


My husband and I discuss the fate of the Canadian currency quite a bit. I've been of the opinion that as the Canadian dollar strengthens, our Central Bank will struggle to keep it from rising too much agains the American currency, if they can do that without causing even more problems. Do you see the Canadian fed also cutting rates to synchronize with the U.S. dollar?
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&q

Unread postby RdSnt » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 16:27:37

I honestly don't see the BofC lowering interest. I would expect Dodge to raise rates to hold inflation as best he can. Perhaps print more money to offset that currency's value.
To a great degree there is little Dodge can do, our country is seen as commodity central and those are becoming more important all the time.
Who would have admitted even 5 years ago that the hewers of wood and drawers of water would be the backstop of the global economy.
I would prefer to see Canada return to being a neutral, peacekeeping country, and have our currency as a backbone stabliizer to various baskets of currencies in the various economic regions of the globe.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby nth » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 17:19:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')he ECB does not have to bow to political pressure.

The chairman of the ECB isn't dragged in front of a popularly elected Congress to explain himself on a monthly basis.

The notes of the ECB meetings aren't dragged through the media's filter and attacked by the London/Paris/Frankfurt business elite.

European central bankers can raise rates to stamp out inflation (and crush economic growth) without fear of losing their jobs.

In America, Congress has to renew the term of the Federal Reserve Governors. As you can imagine, that makes them less willing to raise rates to combat inflation and gives them an incentive to cut rates during election season.

Basically, the Fed is not independent enough to do its job and preserve the value of the American dollar.


Where did you get these misinform ideas?

The ECB is held accountable to the EU. ECB President has to give monthly newsconferences. You ever see Fed Chief answering media questions in public? Well, ECB President has to do that.

The ECB President must give quarterly presentations and annual ones, too.

I don't see how that is any different than US Fed Chief. If anything, the ECB has to do more.

ECB communications

As for politics, the last President of ECB will seriously disagree with you as the media and politicians kept complaining about his actions during 2000 EUR currency crisis.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby Specop_007 » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 17:21:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'Y')ou all sound like a bunch of greedy capitalist pigs, worried about your wealth.


Heck yes I'm worried about my wealth!
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby nth » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 17:30:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')
My husband and I discuss the fate of the Canadian currency quite a bit. I've been of the opinion that as the Canadian dollar strengthens, our Central Bank will struggle to keep it from rising too much agains the American currency, if they can do that without causing even more problems. Do you see the Canadian fed also cutting rates to synchronize with the U.S. dollar?


First, I am not an expert.

I do not see rates rising. Their economy is growing. If anything, they should be raising rates, but they cannot do that now. They can only intervene in currency market and inject CAD into their banks to combat liquidity crisis. They will not do the former without other Central Banks joining in a concerted effort. The latter they have already done and will continue to do it as needed.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 18:21:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'Y')ou all sound like a bunch of greedy capitalist pigs, worried about your wealth. Take a hike in the woods with the dog for C'hrists sake!!!

Image


I understand how you feel. I feel sometimes I am way too preoccupied with this. It started as a genuine interest born out of concern for income as I can't work due to ill health. It then became something of an obsession and a game, involving trying to understand belief systems, closed self referential loops in logic etc...in other words, a kind of epistemological pursuit, and a study of group dynamics. This spins off into a deeper understanding of how religion works and the madness of crowds or mob psychology. And now...I actually am trying to spend more time with my dog as she was getting depressed as I was devoting to much play time to other things. So...your post is kind of apt.

However, I don't think that what you have here is predominantely greed, it's more people interested in preservation of capital. It's something everyone should take seriously. Prior to the hyper inflation of Weimer Germany, those who spent too much time walking their dogs, and not tending to survival issues, ended up pimping their wives and children on street corners.


Yes, but it's such good exercise. We go into the woods & I Nordic Hike (with hiking poles). You gotta be able to move on your feet if TSHTF. :razz:
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 18:23:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'Y')ou all sound like a bunch of greedy capitalist pigs, worried about your wealth.


Heck yes I'm worried about my wealth!
Why do you think I work?? Because I like to??


To mantain your current lifestyle.
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