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Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo"

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&q

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 17:13:59

What are the chances that this had to be done because there wasn't enough liquidity in the system to set up the various bankruptcies that need to happen in order to pass on the bad debts from the capitalists to the upper middle-class? Wall Street is bound to take this as the beginning of a trend.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&q

Unread postby roccman » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 17:21:19

They cut and the 10 year yield went up!!!

Looks like the opposite effect of what was intended.

The is going to end so very badly/

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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby mattduke » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 17:31:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'T')hey cut and the 10 year yield went up!!!

Looks like the opposite effect of what was intended.

Got gold?

The only thing I would rather own less than a dollar right now, is a promise to pay me dollars ten years from now.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby FoxV » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 18:12:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'T')hey cut and the 10 year yield went up!!!

This is actually the very predictable (albeit ironic) outcome of a Fed rate cut.

With the the dollar tanking (which started last week, so no "I didn't see it coming" excuses for Ben), they're going to have to give foreigners a lot more than 4.5% for US bonds. This is why I'm not too upset about my housing short getting spanked. The Law of Gravity will prove itself soon enough.

The FED has just proven how ineffectual its going to be in all of this. As was mentioned many times before, this is not a liquidity crisis, its a solvency crisis. If Ben really wanted to help home owners he would of actually raised rates. This would have driven up the dollar and brought foreigners back into the bond market.

But ultimately, this rate cut was not about bailing out homeowners was it Ben.

Personally I'm surprised at how ball-less Ben demonstrated himself to be. A decent Fed would have only gone 0.25%. A good Fed would have done nothing. A great Fed have acted the first day in office.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby MOCKBA » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 18:59:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', 'P')ersonally I'm surprised at how ball-less Ben demonstrated himself to be. A decent Fed would have only gone 0.25%. A good Fed would have done nothing. A great Fed have acted the first day in office.


Doing 0.5% and be done for the rest of the year was actually very prudent move. Now watch USD stabilizing as the rest do their cuts. Canada is the next to cut, or is it UK? The question is would the rest do 0.5% or would drag with twice a quarter.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&q

Unread postby dissident » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 19:19:03

Blowhard MOCKBA can't lose an opportunity to spread some hate. Russia's monetization is at about 25%, while in western countries it is over 50%. This is the reason why Russia's inflation has been at around 10% even though the money supply has been growing by over 40% every year. Russia's economy is still in a transition state with various structural adjustments that have many more years left to equilibrate. Increasing the money supply by 40% in the USA annually would drive the inflation rate to something comparable.
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Re: Fed puts money presses on "Turbo"

Unread postby darren » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 19:57:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', ' ') At this rate I expect by christmas gold at $750 oil at $85 and the canadian dollar on par to the US dollar.


Christmas? I expect those things by the end of the week. 8O
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby darren » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 20:04:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MOCKBA', ' ')Canada is the next to cut, or is it UK? The question is would the rest do 0.5% or would drag with twice a quarter.


Huh? Canada isn't cutting, pal. We're hiking, before December. Our housing sector isn't going into the toilet like the US, and we actually are adding jobs, not shedding them.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby strider3700 » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 20:32:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('darren', '
')
Huh? Canada isn't cutting, pal. We're hiking, before December. Our housing sector isn't going into the toilet like the US, and we actually are adding jobs, not shedding them.


I agree. with the US economy slowing we're forced to hike rates just to not get too hot and have no customers to sell to.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby nth » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 20:32:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('darren', '
')
Huh? Canada isn't cutting, pal. We're hiking, before December. Our housing sector isn't going into the toilet like the US, and we actually are adding jobs, not shedding them.


Canada held rates in Sept, but raised them in July.
Canada is having major inflation problems boosted by strong commodities. Commodity prices will increase due to US rate decrease. Canada is experiencing same liquidity issues as US due to large investments in US paper.

official press releases
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby strider3700 » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 20:36:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')Canada held rates in Sept, but raised them in July.
Canada is having major inflation problems boosted by strong commodities. Commodity prices will increase due to US rate decrease. Canada is experiencing same liquidity issues as US due to large investments in US paper.

official press releases


Our inflation problems are far worse then out liquidity issues. We'll raise or at worst hold.
shame on us, doomed from the start
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby MOCKBA » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 20:48:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')Canada held rates in Sept, but raised them in July.
Canada is having major inflation problems boosted by strong commodities. Commodity prices will increase due to US rate decrease. Canada is experiencing same liquidity issues as US due to large investments in US paper.

official press releases


Our inflation problems are far worse then out liquidity issues. We'll raise or at worst hold.

And be without jobs prior to recession being reported - very Canadian!

Dodge would cut in October.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&q

Unread postby frankthetank » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 21:20:24

So this doesn't help the housing industry and hurts the dollar? I don't get this shit anymore. I've pretty much given up trying to understand the motives of these monsters, most of us are f##### anyways.


Note to Canadians, I can be to the border in less then 4 hrs :) Hopefully Chicago and Minneapolis don't have the same idea.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&q

Unread postby RdSnt » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 21:40:43

A truly loving picture, provided of course you weren't from there,

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Take a look at near the bottom of the article at the collapse of the Argentine peso. This isn't nosebleed rates, this is the bends.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&q

Unread postby seldom_seen » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 22:10:31

My economic doomometer hit gold, then bags of rice, and finally ammo before it just popped and I have glass all over the floor now.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&q

Unread postby truecougarblue » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 22:29:01

The fed is pushing on a string. The only reason they made this move was to provide themselves with "plausible deniablity".

There is nothing they can do at this point to re-inflate the global credit bubble. The nipponese dropped their rate to 0% in the early 90s and still couldn't pull out of credit induced deflation. This bubble makes that one look like hopscotch in the park.

This rally in the market will last maybe a week, maybe two, and then all bets are off.

My only remaining question is whether this will cause sufficient demand destruction to stave off PO a few more years.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby Heineken » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 22:58:20

What I don't understand is why the 0.50% cut is being taken as a surprise.

It was obvious this was going to happen.

The US economy is housing-centric. Housing must be protected at ANY AND ALL COSTS, especially now that it's so fantastically leveraged.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 23:07:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'W')hat I don't understand is why the 0.50% cut is being taken as a surprise.

It was obvious this was going to happen.

The US economy is housing-centric. Housing must be protected at ANY AND ALL COSTS, especially now that it's so fantastically leveraged.


Image

Ugh, this is going to get ugly.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&q

Unread postby Heineken » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 23:16:06

Those are extremely interesting graphs side-by-side, Tyler. Thanks for posting them.

I agree that there is potential that the system will not be able to take the shock, this time.
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Re: Fed cuts rate 50 BP, puts money presses on "Turbo&a

Unread postby FoxV » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 23:54:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'C')anada held rates in Sept, but raised them in July.

It was a hold, but they actually wanted raise rates. They just wanted to see how the credit issues worked out first.

Tomorrow the CPI comes out, and it'll probably be a nice and low Fed friendly number. The real fun is when September and October numbers are released when exporting countries start adjusting their prices. Once the Loonie hits parity our marketing VP is going to have to raise the US prices.

Now just extrapolate that to China. They're using a sliding dollar peg. So what do they do now? Allow the Yaun to fall with the dollar? They already have inflation troubles. And this is not even talking about what to do with those rapidly shrinking T-Bills. The thing also to consider about the dollar falling is that it also just took a nose dive below its support level. Its next support level is somewhere down in the 30's or 40's

considering that the US market is only 10% of China's exports following the US dollar down would be foolish (especially if the EU (safety bid) and Asian (carry trade) currencies rise)
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