PeakOil is You
has the S*** finally hit?
Re: has the S*** finally hit?
by threadbear » Fri 07 Sep 2007, 16:25:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')China is poised to sieze up too.
I'd be willing to bet China won't sieze up until after they host the Olympics. I reckon they'd do pretty much anything to keep up the illusion of prosperity, even propping up America's illusion of prosperity, until they've put on the greatest Olympic spectacle we're ever likely to see - after all, London 2012 will be smack bang in the middle of the epic-diarrhoea-splattering-the-10-megawatt-wind-turbine incident. After that, it's unlikely any country will be able to host an Olympics on a par with one held in the era of supreme, uncontrolled opulence.
I don't think seizing up is a matter of choice, this time. In the past, I would have completely agreed with you, but not now.
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Re: has the S*** finally hit?
by Heineken » Fri 07 Sep 2007, 16:45:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'M')y guess is that this is not yet "it."
The market's behavior is still essentially greedy, not fearful. The Dow soars on the slightest suggestion of good news and is quite reluctant to sell off---really sell off---on terrible news, even though there's been a lot of that.
The "s***" will finally hit, in the big-picture way---only when the natural resource base is sufficiently moribund. There's still some natural capacity for "the economy" to chew through and destroy. There's a whole new planetful of carefully trained consumers just desperate to buy whatever crap is arrayed before them in garish colors. Money is no problemo---it can be printed at the push of a button. As long as people believe it has value, the game goes on.
The market's behavior is still essentially greedy, not fearful. The Dow soars on the slightest suggestion of good news and is quite reluctant to sell off---really sell off---on terrible news, even though there's been a lot of that.
The "s***" will finally hit, in the big-picture way---only when the natural resource base is sufficiently moribund. There's still some natural capacity for "the economy" to chew through and destroy. There's a whole new planetful of carefully trained consumers just desperate to buy whatever crap is arrayed before them in garish colors. Money is no problemo---it can be printed at the push of a button. As long as people believe it has value, the game goes on.
Heineken, China is poised to sieze up too. This is global. People can want to buy, all they like. They won't have the means to do so. Credit crunches are like that.
T-bear, "the economy" is half substance and half smoke. There's really no way to see through the smoke, which is just the way They want it. So all we can do is guess, and your guess is as good as mine.
China has a considerable domestic market now; it can sell to its own zillions of cipher-like gnomes.
I've watched too many of these stock-market selloffs only to see the damned thing recover and go even higher. So far the Dow has lost considerably less than 10% of its value, not even enough to qualify as a correction.
I'll believe it when I see it, and not until.
Bear in mind that when the Ultra-Depression comes, as it most certainly must, the global-dimming effect will be removed and Global Warming will lurch forward by a decade or two overnight.
"Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---I & my bro.
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---I & my bro.
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