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"Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisis 07

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Postby cube » Mon 30 Jul 2007, 00:55:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '.')..
You know we're in uber deep shit - way more than in the 1970s - but can't bring yourself to admit it.
...
Does that mean we can't raise the federal funds rate to 20% (Paul Volcker style) to fight inflation? :P
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Postby AirlinePilot » Mon 30 Jul 2007, 02:29:56

One of the key differences about the problem in the 70's (and i lived through it too) was that EVERYONE knew it was going to be something short term. There would be an end and things would go back to the way they were. This time that will not be the case. It's a different animal really.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Mon 30 Jul 2007, 05:31:39

Bush and Cheney have off-grid private bunkers

If the overwhelming evidence of the numbers doesn't convince you, that little piece of information sure should.

All these idiots saying theres' no problem as the men in charge make personal preparations that dwarf those of even super doomers.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Postby Narz » Mon 30 Jul 2007, 08:31:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Battle_Scarred_Galactico', '[')b]Bush and Cheney have off-grid private bunkers

How do you really know that though?

Only place I've read that is on Matt's site. Do you have a more legitimate source?
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Postby DantesPeak » Mon 30 Jul 2007, 10:18:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Battle_Scarred_Galactico', '[')b]Bush and Cheney have off-grid private bunkers

How do you really know that though?

Only place I've read that is on Matt's site. Do you have a more legitimate source?


If my memory is correct, I posted the link to this subject from an AP article a year ago, albeit the Asscoiated Press report originated from outside of the US.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Postby shortonoil » Mon 30 Jul 2007, 10:49:00

MattSavinar said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou know we're in uber deep shit - way more than in the 1970s - but can't bring yourself to admit it.


The shit is deeper than most want to admit. What is keeping the earth 3 to 4 deg C cooler, than it would otherwise be, is the huge quantity of aerosols being injected into the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels. This temporary cooling affect is preventing much of the planet from turning into a dessert - as higher global temperatures will significantly reduce precipitation. Once the oil runs out, so will the water that is needed to maintain the ecology and our food supply. We will soon be in “uber, uber deep shit”!


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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Postby NotMyBlood » Mon 30 Jul 2007, 12:03:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bshirt', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '
')A major disruption due to terrorism in Saudi Arabia, another Katrina type hurricane and bam . . . it could all fall apart inside of a couple weeks.

Or maybe we'll keep getting lucky for another 3-4 years.

So there you have it: "TSHTF" some time between 48 hours and 4 years

Happy?


Makes sense to me.

Add in GW, fiat currency default and/or hyperinflation, trillions of dollars of unpayable debt, etc....yep, anytime is as good as any.


Yeah, the "evidence" of impending doom seems to mount daily. Its real easy to put a spin on just about anything and the mind works in odd ways sometimes. But for someone who has been programmed (by parents) too avoid such extreme thinking, you crazy doomer guys just might be right.

48 hours to 4 years until doom? I want the fast crash and I want it as soon as possible. I'm an American, I have no patience.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Postby yesplease » Mon 30 Jul 2007, 12:36:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'O')nce the oil runs out, so will the water that is needed to maintain the ecology and our food supply. We will soon be in “uber, uber deep shit”!
How does that work out?
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Postby shortonoil » Mon 30 Jul 2007, 14:00:15

yesplease said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow does that work out?


As surface temperatures increase, the air adjacent to the ground heats up more than the layers above it. This disrupts the trade winds that bring moist air to the temperate regions from the tropics. The temperate regions will subsequently turn into deserts, like the Sahara. This will happen in a few years once the troposphere, stratosphere boundary is established.

Professor Elderfield of Cambridge has shown that this is what happened at the beginning of the Eocene era 55 million years ago. A rapid temperature increase of 5 to 8 deg. C. caused the disassociation of methane hydrate which put the planet into a positive feed back situation, transforming most of the planet into desert, and killing at least 50% of the terrestrial life and 70% of the marine life. If this same scenario were repeated today, undoubtedly, most of humanity would perish.

A good read on the subject which is not technically challenging for the technically challenged is James Lovelock’s “The Revenge of Gaia”. To eliminate needless discussions with trolls and moronic imbeciles, it will be sufficient to say that personal attacks against Lovelock will only be responded to if you can produce your own Noble Prize credentials.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Postby yesplease » Tue 31 Jul 2007, 01:24:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'P')rofessor Elderfield of Cambridge has speculated that this is what happened at the beginning of the Eocene era 55 million years ago. A rapid temperature increase of 5 to 8 deg. C. caused the disassociation of methane hydrate which put the planet into a positive feed back situation, transforming most of the planet into desert, and killing at least 50% of the terrestrial life and 70% of the marine life. If this same scenario were repeated today, undoubtedly, most of humanity would perish.
Fixed it for ya! ;)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kent, D. V.; Kent, D. V.; Cramer, B. S.; Lanci, L.', 'T')he Paleocene/Eocene (P/E) boundary is known to be associated with an extraordinarily rapid (probably less than 1 k.y.) and large (about -2.5 per mil) carbon isotope excursion (CIE) recorded in marine and terrestrial systems that coincided with a dramatic and equally rapid oxygen isotopic excursion interpreted as the Paleocene/Eocene (formerly latest Paleocene) Thermal Maximum (PETM). A widely accepted explanation for the rapid onset and magnitude of the CIE is the sudden dissociation of large amounts of 12C-enriched marine gas hydrates on a global scale. Such a large dissociation event could not have occurred spontaneously and requires either a thermal or mechanical trigger whose origin and efficacy remain uncertain. We postulate that the globally rapid simultaneous onsets of the CIE and PETM at about 55 Ma were induced by the impact of a large carbonaceous bolide (asteroid, or more likely, a comet).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wikipedia citing \"Rapid Acidification of the Ocean during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum\". Science 308', 'I')n 1990, marine scientists James Kennett and Lowell Stott, both then at the University of California, Santa Barbara, reported analysis of marine sediments showing that, not only had the surface of the Arctic ocean heated up about 10 degrees at the beginning of the Eocene, but that the entire depth of the ocean had warmed, dramatically changing its chemistry.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NOAA', 'S')cientists at NOAA have discovered that the world ocean has warmed significantly during the past 40 years, the Commerce Department announced today. The largest warming has occurred in the upper 300 meters of the world ocean on average by 0.56 degrees Fahrenheit. The water in the upper 3000 meters of the world ocean warmed on average by 0.11 degrees Fahrenheit

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote(' Environmental Monitoring and Assessment v. 44, p. 149-153 (1997)', 'T')he major concern with respect to clatharate destabilization would be for regions with clathrates deeper than 250 meters (see Fig. 1) with relatively warm temperatures. In the modern ocean with an average depth of 5000 meters and a temperature of waters at that depth on the order of 5 degrees Celsius, there is relatively little area in the oceans where existing clathrates would be destablized with a warming of up to 5 degrees.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')sing a range of scenarios and models, the IPCC report projected "best-estimate" temperature increases ranging from 1.8 degrees to 4.0 degrees Celcius from pre-industrial levels by the end of the 21st century.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IPCC', 'M')ost projections suggest that greenhouse gas concentrations will increase significantly during the next century in the absence of policies specifically designed to address the issue of climate change, with carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels being projected to range from about 5 to 35 GtC per year in the year 2100, compared to current emissions of about 6.3 GtC per year.

So, if there is relatively little area where the existing clathrates would be destabilized by warming of up to five degrees, and each degree increase in average temp corresponds to roughly half that at that depth, we would need a ~10 degree C increase in the Earth's average temp to see that event. The IPCC's high end "best-estimate" is 4 degrees C by 2100. So, given that we are at roughly 6.3 GtC per year as of now, and the high end "best-estimate" corresponds to emissions of 35+ GtC per year, we would need to burn way more fossil fuels just to get close to this.

Otoh, we're going to start to run out of oil, NG, and maybe coal, at least that which is easy to extract. Since the EROEI of the remaining stuff likely precludes easy extraction, how are we going to get this extra ~30 GtC? According to this site it likely won't be from oil or NG, or coal either... Even if we somehow manage to extract all these fossil fuels, say, by using nuclear power to help extract them at a net energy loss, at an increase in temperature of about 5 degrees C at 300 meters, there is relatively little area in the oceans where clathrates would be destabilized.

Otoh, an asteroid or comet may have provided the mechanical and thermal mechanism needed to release all the Methane, raising the Earth's temperature by ~5-8 degrees C and all the other lovely jazz. Iirc, there were only about 10 people at most at Prof. Kennett's talk in the geosci building at UCR back in 2004/05(?), which I posted about here right after. ;) Iirc, he referred to it as a mechanism that didn't allow the Earth's temperature to drop too much, since during an ice age, if enough water was land locked, the sea level, and pressure on different clathrate fields would drop enough for outgassing to bring temperatures back up. Or, if there were a large enough mechanical/thermal trigger, a large portion of those fields would rise to the surface. However, I see nowhere in the literature anything about a 5 degree C increase causing the rapid disassociation of clathrates.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('James P. Kennett', 'A')ccording to the Clathrate Gun Hypothesis, episodic atmospheric CH4 emissions resulting from instability of the hydrate reservoir contributed significantly to the distinctive behavior of late Quaternary climate change on orbital (Milankovitch) and millennial time scales. Resulting CH4 releases to the atmosphere provided a crucial trigger for abrupt warmings, reinforced by other greenhouse gases, including water vapor.

Not that Lovelock is wrong per say, a 5 degree C increase will have huge impacts on our terrestrial ecosystem. It just seems that like Twilight said, you're mixing and matching stuff to suit your soap box. I suggest taking another look at the literature. :razz:
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Postby yesplease » Tue 31 Jul 2007, 02:29:11

Oh, and about the section I quoted, According to Elderfield it was an increase of 4-5 degrees C in the bottom waters, not the Earth's average temperature.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aradhna Tripati and Henry Elderfield', 'A') rapid increase in greenhouse gas levels is thought to have fueled global warming at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Foraminiferal magnesium/calcium ratios indicate that bottom waters warmed by 4° to 5°C

And, just to make it clear, I'm not disputing that humans are creating significant problems for themselves. We're probably the best at wiping each other out. I'm just trying to bring the literature into the discussion.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Postby shortonoil » Wed 01 Aug 2007, 12:14:36

Even a professor from Cambridge can not get a paper published in Nature based on speculation. This is a very serious, and terrifying subject, and it could be perhaps, the most serious in the history of humanity. We have one of the great minds of the last century informing us that it is highly possible that most of humanity and perhaps all of civilization, as we know it, could perish in the next two decades. To have it obfuscated and trivialized by a pubescent data mining troll, that obviously doesn’t even understand the significance of the data they are mining, is not in the least disturbing.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Postby yesplease » Wed 01 Aug 2007, 17:56:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'E')ven a professor from Cambridge can not get a paper published in Nature based on speculation.
Ehm, just about everything in the sciences is/was speculation. The exception is mathematics, since that's built on itself and is constructed by us. In the case of something like physics, someone will use math to attempt to describe something via a theory aka speculation. Once it becomes widely accepted, it may become a law. But... laws do not always hold true, and can be broken under certain circumstances. In the case of paleoclimatology, everything is a theory/speculation. It can be based on a logical foundation, but unless we can travel back in time to actually verify whatever, it's still speculation. Not that there's anything wrong with that, a theory can gain widespread acceptance because there's not much in the way of contradictory evidence, and a good amount of supporting evidence. However, unless we can devise a relatively sure fire way to verify something, which can be done in physics/etc, it's still theory/speculation.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'T')his is a very serious, and terrifying subject, and it could be perhaps, the most serious in the history of humanity. We have one of the great minds of the last century informing us that it is highly possible that most of humanity and perhaps all of civilization, as we know it, could perish in the next two decades.
Ah yes, we can destroy civilization in an all out nuclear barrage with the push of a few buttons, but this is more pressing? We can be wiped out by way some obscene pathogen, a sufficiently powerful burst of Gamma radiation, Comet, Asteroid, black hole, or something we know nothing of. But somehow, your mixed up interpretation of Elderfield's paper combined with Lovelock's book is the most serious and terrifying subject in the history of humanity? Sure buddy... :-D

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'T')o have it obfuscated and trivialized by a pubescent data mining troll, that obviously doesn’t even understand the significance of the data they are mining, is not in the least disturbing.
I have obfuscated and trivialized nothing, I simply posted information from various sources, most of which were peer-reviewed, less the IPCC AFAIK. Just because you can't read and understand the difference between the average temperature of the Earth (atmosphere) and the average temperature of the bottom layer of the Earth's oceans doesn't make the literature, which I presented, automagically tr0ll b41t. I'd appreciate it if you either responded to the papers I posted in a mature manner, or went and fap faped to more d00m3r p0rn. :razz:
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