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"Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisis 07

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby cube » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 20:39:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'D')idn't take me 15 seconds to figure out whether it's worth watching:

"There is enough crude oil in the North Slope of Alaska as there is in Saudi Arabia."

*click.*
My favorite part was when the speaker said gasoline can be $1.50 at the pump within 12 months if only the US government can be honest with the public.

Honestly, this person doesn't sound that much different then those who try to peddle:
EV cars
bio-fuels
hydrogen
Ethanol
I like to group those people into the "business as usual" folks. What they ALL have in common is they believe we are not in overshoot. They actually believe this "American suburbia" lifestyle is indefinitely sustainable.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 21:16:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NotMyBlood', '
')
Why invest billions/millions when the risk assesment surely would be in the red after researching expected access to Oil .

.


The risk assessment models generally assume the market will provide an economical energy source. In other words, the Big Money guys have (in 99/100 cases) drank their own kool-aid.

[smilie=qpepsi.gif]

The 1% who haven't (Pickens, Rainwater, etc.) have pulled out of the markets or are investing in wind power (Pickens) and off-grid bunker compounds (Rainwater).

[smilie=qleft6.gif]

Bush, Cheney have their off-grid private bunkers as well. But hey what do they know about the status of the world's oil supply?
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby clueless » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 21:34:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think we may only have weeks or months. Just depends on how the cookie crumbles.


Matt - Have you thought about politics ? Have you even thought to analyze this statement ? It sounds impressive but really says nothing.

You start of by saying we have weeks or months, which could mean 2 weeks or an infinte number of weeks, and that is dependent on "how the cookie crumbles", you have more variables in that equation that the theory of relatvity (I don't know if the theroy of relativity has variables, but I was horrible in math and didn't know of another equation..Feel free to substitute your own)
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 22:11:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think we may only have weeks or months. Just depends on how the cookie crumbles.


Matt - Have you thought about politics ? Have you even thought to analyze this statement ? It sounds impressive but really says nothing.

You start of by saying we have weeks or months, which could mean 2 weeks or an infinte number of weeks, and that is dependent on "how the cookie crumbles", you have more variables in that equation that the theory of relatvity (I don't know if the theroy of relativity has variables, but I was horrible in math and didn't know of another equation..Feel free to substitute your own)


A major disruption due to terrorism in Saudi Arabia, another Katrina type hurricane and bam . . . it could all fall apart inside of a couple weeks.

Or maybe we'll keep getting lucky for another 3-4 years.

So there you have it: "TSHTF" some time between 48 hours and 4 years

Happy?
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby KingM » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 22:17:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '
')You start of by saying we have weeks or months, which could mean 2 weeks or an infinte number of weeks, and that is dependent on "how the cookie crumbles", you have more variables in that equation that the theory of relatvity (I don't know if the theroy of relativity has variables, but I was horrible in math and didn't know of another equation..Feel free to substitute your own)


Uhm, that would be e=mc^2, which has 1 variable, m. So, yes, you might want to choose another equation. :)
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sun 29 Jul 2007, 02:08:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'A') major disruption due to terrorism in Saudi Arabia, another Katrina type hurricane and bam . . . it could all fall apart inside of a couple weeks.

Or maybe we'll keep getting lucky for another 3-4 years.

So there you have it: "TSHTF" some time between 48 hours and 4 years

Happy?


I actually think this is about as good an estimate as any. When you think about all the unknowns, this is really all you have. The bottom line is modern man doesn't think it will happen and he is gonna go down kicking and screaming when the unthinkable unfolds right in front of his face.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby bshirt » Sun 29 Jul 2007, 02:53:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '
')A major disruption due to terrorism in Saudi Arabia, another Katrina type hurricane and bam . . . it could all fall apart inside of a couple weeks.

Or maybe we'll keep getting lucky for another 3-4 years.

So there you have it: "TSHTF" some time between 48 hours and 4 years

Happy?


Makes sense to me.

Add in GW, fiat currency default and/or hyperinflation, trillions of dollars of unpayable debt, etc....yep, anytime is as good as any.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby KevO » Sun 29 Jul 2007, 04:37:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'h')ey guys 'm with you all the way and Matt, LATOC is for most people THE wake up site, but somebody please debunk this debunking...if only for the record!
:)


Ok, here's a bit from a ppt program of mine.

ANWR: How much oil is there?

95% Probability 5.7 bbls = .5 mbpd
Mean (Expected)10.3 bbls = .9 mbpd
5% Probability 16.0 bbls = 1.9 mbpd

Seven to 12 years are estimated to be required from the time of approval to explore and develop ANWR to the first production of oil.

From first production to peak will take 3 to 4 more years where the production rate peaks at .9 million barrels per day.

7-12 years to explore and develop

2025 ANWR produces .9 mbpd of oil

By 2025, the US is projected to consume 30 mbpd at a 1.7% annual growth rate.

In 2025, .9 mbpd is 20% of domestic production but only 3% of US demand.

30 mbpd divided by 24 hours = 1.25mbph

EIA, best case scenario would reduce oil prices by $.30 to $.50 per barrel

Reduce oil imports from 68% to 65%.

.9 mbpd is 72% of one daily hour US demand

Conclusion: ANWR would power the US for 43 minutes/day, the rest would have to be imported.

Not too mention, how would you get that oil down here if you could increase production beyond the .9 mbpd?

The pipeline only holds 2 mbpd and it is half full now with current production.




Nice one Monte. Thanks. I'll pass these replies (this thread link) on to where the query came from (A Transition Town group in the UK).

Also I think August will be key month as to whether TS is about to fly off TF blades.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby KevO » Sun 29 Jul 2007, 04:42:49

PS If it is this year, we are in big ter ubble IMHO. We do need the 4 years
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby CrudeAwakening » Sun 29 Jul 2007, 05:17:49

I've got a really bad feeling that 2007-2008 is going to see the fan blades swinging and the shit slinging.

I'll be happy if we have another four years. I have a feeling the time will come soon enough when we are no longer discussing our fears over the internet, but rather living them in glorious "doom-o-vision". :(
"Who knows what the Second Law of Thermodynamics will be like in a hundred years?" - Economist speaking during planning for World Population Conference in early 1970s
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby Omnitir » Sun 29 Jul 2007, 06:50:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '
')So there you have it: "TSHTF" some time between 48 hours and 4 years

Happy?

No :(
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby Starvid » Sun 29 Jul 2007, 09:23:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ame problem here, everyone is pushing their own pet agenda and peak oil is just another tool, interpreted as they please. With the result that casual observers can't tell the nutcases from the well informed and concerned.

Very well put.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby Cyrus » Sun 29 Jul 2007, 13:27:51

Everything is riding on whether OPEC can increase production in September. If they can, we have a little while longer. If they can't, well, you all know.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby veliger » Sun 29 Jul 2007, 13:45:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'h')ey guys 'm with you all the way and Matt, LATOC is for most people THE wake up site, but somebody please debunk this debunking...if only for the record!
:)


Ok, here's a bit from a ppt program of mine.

ANWR: How much oil is there?

95% Probability 5.7 bbls = .5 mbpd
Mean (Expected)10.3 bbls = .9 mbpd
5% Probability 16.0 bbls = 1.9 mbpd

Seven to 12 years are estimated to be required from the time of approval to explore and develop ANWR to the first production of oil.

From first production to peak will take 3 to 4 more years where the production rate peaks at .9 million barrels per day.

7-12 years to explore and develop

2025 ANWR produces .9 mbpd of oil

By 2025, the US is projected to consume 30 mbpd at a 1.7% annual growth rate.

In 2025, .9 mbpd is 20% of domestic production but only 3% of US demand.

30 mbpd divided by 24 hours = 1.25mbph

EIA, best case scenario would reduce oil prices by $.30 to $.50 per barrel

Reduce oil imports from 68% to 65%.

.9 mbpd is 72% of one daily hour US demand

Conclusion: ANWR would power the US for 43 minutes/day, the rest would have to be imported.

Not too mention, how would you get that oil down here if you could increase production beyond the .9 mbpd?

The pipeline only holds 2 mbpd and it is half full now with current production.


Blah, Blah, Blah……….

Any and all unexploited oil in the world will not help one little bit. So don't even bother trying, because I told you already, you are doomed, that' what doomsday cults do, dammit! :roll:

Because I want a peak oil hard crash and I want it now! So please don’t try to develop any new oil sources, because that would ruin my Y2K, oops, Peak Oil doomsday scenario.
:roll: :roll:
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 29 Jul 2007, 14:06:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('veliger', ' ')Blah, Blah, Blah……….

Any and all unexploited oil in the world will not help one little bit. So don't even bother trying, because I told you already, you are doomed, that' what doomsday cults do, dammit! :roll:

Because I want a peak oil hard crash and I want it now! So please don’t try to develop any new oil sources, because that would ruin my Y2K, oops, Peak Oil doomsday scenario.
:roll: :roll:


Can't refute the facts: attack the messenger.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby joewp » Sun 29 Jul 2007, 20:12:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('veliger', ' ')Blah, Blah, Blah……….

Any and will not help one little bit. So don't even bother trying, because I told you already, you are doomed, that' what doomsday cults do, dammit! :roll:

Because I want a peak oil hard crash and I want it now! So please don’t try to develop any new oil sources, because that would ruin my Y2K, oops, Peak Oil doomsday scenario.
:roll: :roll:


Can't refute the facts: attack the messenger.


It won't get through to him, after all he's proposing the "strength through exhaustion" solution, attempting to pull "all unexploited oil in the world" out as fast as possible. I guess nobody understands the math that doing that (even if you could, which you can't) would just lead to a slightly later but much steeper crash.

I always ask people like that, "And then what?". I get blank stares because I think they want to say something like "by then I'll be dead" but can't because they know they'll look selfish and greedy at the expense of their kids.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby clueless » Sun 29 Jul 2007, 21:02:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') major disruption due to terrorism in Saudi Arabia, another Katrina type hurricane and bam . . . it could all fall apart inside of a couple weeks.

Or maybe we'll keep getting lucky for another 3-4 years.

So there you have it: "TSHTF" some time between 48 hours and 4 years

Happy?


As a clam -


I know things are going to unravel - BUT oil consuption dropped dramatically in the 70's with no major catastrophe...Inconvenient yes - Catastrophy ? No.....
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby joewp » Sun 29 Jul 2007, 21:28:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') major disruption due to terrorism in Saudi Arabia, another Katrina type hurricane and bam . . . it could all fall apart inside of a couple weeks.

Or maybe we'll keep getting lucky for another 3-4 years.

So there you have it: "TSHTF" some time between 48 hours and 4 years

Happy?


As a clam -


I know things are going to unravel - BUT oil consuption dropped dramatically in the 70's with no major catastrophe...Inconvenient yes - Catastrophy ? No.....
_________________


Huh? Did you live through it? I did, and the gas lines were quite major, and more than just an inconvenience. Also those double digit inflation and unemployment rates were quite the catastrophe. If oil consumption had been forced even lower by more production cuts from OPEC, we would have had a depression.

And it wasn't that dramatic a drop, only about 5% and it caused prices to quadruple. A drop like that, followed by another drop the same or larger, will cause hell to break loose, especially when people understand the future will see even more dramatic drops.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby MattSavinar » Sun 29 Jul 2007, 22:13:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') major disruption due to terrorism in Saudi Arabia, another Katrina type hurricane and bam . . . it could all fall apart inside of a couple weeks.

Or maybe we'll keep getting lucky for another 3-4 years.

So there you have it: "TSHTF" some time between 48 hours and 4 years

Happy?


As a clam -


I know things are going to unravel - BUT oil consuption dropped dramatically in the 70's with no major catastrophe...Inconvenient yes - Catastrophy ? No.....
_________________


Economy is totaly different now. Way more leveraged. People are way more indebted. In 1980 your wife could go get a job to pick up the slack if the economy tanked. Today, no can do. She's already working.

That's just one example.

You know we're in uber deep shit - way more than in the 1970s - but can't bring yourself to admit it.

Go ahead, flame me or something. If that makes you feel better and makes the scary thoughts go away, then go for it.
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