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"Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisis 07

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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"Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisis 07

Unread postby KevO » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 06:21:52

now on video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbakN7SLdbk

.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby killJOY » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 07:04:44

Didn't take me 15 seconds to figure out whether it's worth watching:

"There is enough crude oil in the North Slope of Alaska as there is in Saudi Arabia."

*click.*
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby KevO » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 07:26:33

well I agree. But this is what the sheeple want. 27,000 views and a 4* + rating. It's grist for the burn baby burn, hummer mill.
I posted it because I'm, like many, a peak oil voyeur as opposed to an informed 'expert'.
And a _why_ it's BS would be woth reading rather than it just is - but not for me though, I'm converted so to speak but so many others are starting to grasp on to this view that the debunking really needs to be debunked for the newcomers who are wandering towards the precipice of understanding, or wandering back ...so to speak
especially as now the oil price is 1 cent off an all time record AND stocks are in the early stages of an avalanche free fall
:)
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby Twilight » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 10:16:10

Seen it before. Debunking stuff like that is a waste of time.

It's always the same.

(Real event of public concern) + (Personal bias) = (Conspiracy theory n)

It doesn't help that the conspiracy is always so powerful that the question of resistance never arises, while the "truth" is a comfort.

In other words, nothing useful added, nothing achieved.

Don't worry about people falling for it, means less competition in the long run.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby Novus » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 12:11:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'D')idn't take me 15 seconds to figure out whether it's worth watching:

"There is enough crude oil in the North Slope of Alaska as there is in Saudi Arabia."

*click.*


The situation in Alaska is quite dire at the moment because by all accounts the North Slope is crashing. There are a lot of inteligent people who think America can somehow sustain itself on its own resources including oil by thinking if only we could drill in Anwar and off Florida's gulf coast we could produce 6 million barrels a day for the next 50 years. They understand the nature of peak oil but fail to grasp the final implications of peak and what it means for civilization. Everything we know and take for granted about the modern world will come to an end in very short order. I think these people who have some knowledge of what is comming but live in a state of denial will be in for a greater shock then the people who are completely ignorant.

One must drink deeply from the cup of knowledge or not at all.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 12:23:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', ' ')There are a lot of inteligent people who think America can somehow sustain itself on its own resources including oil by thinking if only we could drill in Anwar and off Florida's gulf coast we could produce 6 million barrels a day for the next 50 years.


I agree. I hear this regularly any time oil resources and problems looming are mentioned. Anwar and offshore is our "ace in the hole". I also hear a lot of folks talk about "all the little wells capped off" in TX and OK. They believe we will just uncork them and it will flow freely due to higher prices. I do believe it's a form of denial.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby killJOY » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 12:27:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')ell I agree. But this is what the sheeple want. 27,000 views and a 4* + rating. It's grist for the burn baby burn, hummer mill.


Yeah, I got your point. Thanks for posting it. It's good to see this stuff to see what we're against.


There's a real obsession with control. Some people simply can't believe that things are out of our hands. Somebody must be in control.
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 15:20:23

at LATOC, I regularly (about once-twice a week) I get emails that say,

"I've been studying PEak oil for 3 years and I thought it was a serious problem but this you tube video has convinced me otherwise!"

I don't even bother responding.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby thuja » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 15:30:41

But Matt- I made those you tube videos- and they are right. You are the one who is deluded! Go back to your cave and eat assflesh if you want!!!
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby KevO » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 15:35:03

hey guys 'm with you all the way and Matt, LATOC is for most people THE wake up site, but somebody please debunk this debunking...if only for the record!
:)
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 16:17:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'h')ey guys 'm with you all the way and Matt, LATOC is for most people THE wake up site, but somebody please debunk this debunking...if only for the record!
:)


Just read LATOC. Or any of the other primers. This guy says "there is plenty of oil." I've got what will print as 50 pages of debunking that idea. There's a literal library of debunking at this point, most of it available online.

Besides, who cares at this point? We've got maybe a few years before all hell breaks loose.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby Roccland » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 16:19:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', ' ')Besides, who cares at this point? We've got maybe a few years before all hell breaks loose.


Few years???

Bwhahahahahaha...!!!

Next Wednesday...maybe Thursday.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 16:25:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', ' ')Besides, who cares at this point? We've got maybe a few years before all hell breaks loose.


Few years???

Bwhahahahahaha...!!!

Next Wednesday...maybe Thursday.


That's why I said "maybe."

I think we may only have weeks or months. Just depends on how the cookie crumbles.

I think having a stocked bunker (or in your case multiple stocked bunkers) is an excellent idea.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby Roccland » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 16:30:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', ' ')Besides, who cares at this point? We've got maybe a few years before all hell breaks loose.


Few years???

Bwhahahahahaha...!!!

Next Wednesday...maybe Thursday.


That's why I said "maybe."

I think we may only have weeks or months. Just depends on how the cookie crumbles.

I think having a stocked bunker (or in your case multiple stocked bunkers) is an excellent idea.


Ok - so on a "craigs list" this guy has 250 units of 2 people Mountain house dried food...and 223 ammo and mags.

I am getting the mountain house for $1 per unit...and 223 ammo at .05 per round - (500 rounds) and the mags at $5/ea

I asked why he is selling...he said he had these stocked up for Y2K and does not need them any more...he is moving to Hawaii.

I will pick up in a few hours.

Bhwhahahahahahahahahahahahha!!
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 16:39:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'h')ey guys 'm with you all the way and Matt, LATOC is for most people THE wake up site, but somebody please debunk this debunking...if only for the record!
:)


Ok, here's a bit from a ppt program of mine.

ANWR: How much oil is there?

95% Probability 5.7 bbls = .5 mbpd
Mean (Expected)10.3 bbls = .9 mbpd
5% Probability 16.0 bbls = 1.9 mbpd

Seven to 12 years are estimated to be required from the time of approval to explore and develop ANWR to the first production of oil.

From first production to peak will take 3 to 4 more years where the production rate peaks at .9 million barrels per day.

7-12 years to explore and develop

2025 ANWR produces .9 mbpd of oil

By 2025, the US is projected to consume 30 mbpd at a 1.7% annual growth rate.

In 2025, .9 mbpd is 20% of domestic production but only 3% of US demand.

30 mbpd divided by 24 hours = 1.25mbph

EIA, best case scenario would reduce oil prices by $.30 to $.50 per barrel

Reduce oil imports from 68% to 65%.

.9 mbpd is 72% of one daily hour US demand

Conclusion: ANWR would power the US for 43 minutes/day, the rest would have to be imported.

Not too mention, how would you get that oil down here if you could increase production beyond the .9 mbpd?

The pipeline only holds 2 mbpd and it is half full now with current production.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby yesplease » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 17:15:46

roflz! conspiracy theorists flaming fringe lunatics is always good for a lolz. :-D
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby Twilight » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 17:22:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'r')oflz! conspiracy theorists flaming fringe lunatics is always good for a lolz. :-D

Sadly that's the way of the world, the people standing on a soap box are the most divided of them all. In the comedy Life of Brian there was a running joke about the Judean People's Front, People's Front of Judea, and Popular Front of Judea spending as much time and energy on their rivalry as on their struggle against the Romans. Same problem here, everyone is pushing their own pet agenda and peak oil is just another tool, interpreted as they please. With the result that casual observers can't tell the nutcases from the well informed and concerned.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 19:02:30

Oh, I think the considered opinions here prove that we're not lunatics or nutcases. Someone might be puzzled by Matt and Roccland going at it...
It might be worthwhile to cut and paste Monte's reply into the comments on this flick, if there isn't something equally damning already.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby killJOY » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 19:15:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think we may only have weeks or months. Just depends on how the cookie crumbles.


After this past week (oil above $77, stock market crash, news of Mexico "running out" in 7 years), I've already marked my calendar on Monday, July 30: "wheels begin flying off?"

I'll know in a couple of days. I'll give it till the end of next week.

2007 is the year I've feared.
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: "Peak Oil is a Misnomer", The Energy Non Crisi

Unread postby NotMyBlood » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 19:33:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ame problem here, everyone is pushing their own pet agenda and peak oil is just another tool, interpreted as they please. With the result that casual observers can't tell the nutcases from the well informed and concerned.


Well put, and as a casual observer that's exactly how I feel most of the time. Just the other day, on one of the more respectable news progams, produced by NBC(i think), an Oil "expert" told the reporter there is enough Oil off the coast of Virginia alone to keep us running for 30 years. He enfatically(sp?) claimed that if current Environmental laws/regulations were lifted we would have access to as much Oil as we needed. Also, I'm always hearing claims that 60-65% of "off-shore" areas havent even been explored.

However, I also read reports from the GAO, respected community members(simmons) and others, IEA , read these boards, etc etc that claim the exact opposit and demand will soon surpass supply.

As a casual obeverver I think..."??????" The real question is time. I think everyone recognizes were running out but do we have 50 years left before we start seeing problems or 5 months? I see the world chugging along like its "no problem". Building mega cities in the desert, investing billions and billions in the Global economy. You would think with the amount of money invested, firms/entities must feel pretty confident that Oil will remain "relativley" cheap and accessible. Why invest billions/millions when the risk assesment surely would be in the red after researching expected access to Oil . That's my first thought. But I really "dont know". Its incredibly interesting though. I wonder, in 4-6 years, will members still be predicting "the end of Oil" as the rest of the world continues the stats quo? - i dont know. I'm one who thinks humans are just getting started. There is so much we havent discovered, that we dont know. Nanotech, Dark matter/energy, etc etc etc.....
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