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What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

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What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby Denny » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 01:51:36

There seems to quite a big concern of late about some oil producers demanding payment in Japanese yen or the euro. But, what difference does it make, as money is so fungible? If the producer wants to be paid in yen, or rubles, or whatever, its a simple matter to exchange US$ for yen at a big bank or currency trading company. I would also expect the U.S. treasury holds other major currencies, along with gold. Even Canada's treasury holds other major currencies.
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby gampy » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 03:49:37

Dude. The only reason the US can maintain it's current trade deficit and economy is because oil is priced in US dollars.

There are many threads on this site devoted to the petrodollar and implications thereof.

Search "petrodollar" and you will find the answer to your question.

I thought about doing this for you, but fucked if I am going to do your work for you.

Suffice to say...you have some research to do before creating another thread.

PS : for someone with that many posts on this forum, I am a little confused that you are unfamiliar with the search function, nevermind the subject at hand.
Last edited by gampy on Sat 28 Jul 2007, 03:55:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 03:55:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gampy', 'D')ude. The only reason the US can maintain it's current trade deficit and economy is because oil is priced in US dollars.

There are many threads on this site devoted to the petrodollar and implications thereof.

Search "petrodollar" and you will find the answer to your question.

I thought about doing this for you, but fucked if I am going to do your work for you.

Suffice to say...you have some research to do before creating another thread.


Give us a synopsis. I don't feel like reading pages and pages of bs. I know the petro dollar is important to the US, but why ? How does the US benefit from oil being traded in dollars instead of another currency ? Is it just because the world would lose confidence in the $ and would no longer feel the need to buy bonds, treasuries and other american assets ?
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby gampy » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 03:58:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gampy', 'D')ude. The only reason the US can maintain it's current trade deficit and economy is because oil is priced in US dollars.

There are many threads on this site devoted to the petrodollar and implications thereof.

Search "petrodollar" and you will find the answer to your question.

I thought about doing this for you, but fucked if I am going to do your work for you.

Suffice to say...you have some research to do before creating another thread.


Give us a synopsis. I don't feel like reading pages and pages of bs. I know the petro dollar is important to the US, but why ? How does the US benefit from oil being traded in dollars instead of another currency ? Is it just because the world would lose confidence in the $ and would no longer feel the need to buy bonds, treasuries and other american assets ?


Pffft. *sigh*

You don't feel like reading ,eh? Am I supposed to put together a package of links within this site for you lazy asses?

Why did I even respond to this thread? Silly me.
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 04:18:22

I don't need links, just give me a short 1-2 line answer. It can't be that difficult, can it ?
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby master_rb » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 04:46:10

1-2 line I can even do

oil is blood for economyies around the world, to get oil you need dollars and everybody needs it to stay alive, you can't go around it this system till another currency comes along,

the value of dollar is kept high because of this arrangement - simple supply demand
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby CrudeAwakening » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 04:55:00

Well, as I understand it, it provides artificially increased demand for the USD, since dollars are required for the transaction, keeping the dollar value higher than it would be otherwise. In terms of the effect on the value of the USD, it's almost as if the US was the sole exporter of all of the world's oil. It also allows the US to print money to pay for oil without experiencing the level of currency risk or transaction costs of other countries.

However, it does appear to depend to a large extent on oil exporters opting to retain their earnings as USD or USD denominated assets, and as they decide not to do so, the influence of the petrodollar should in theory be lessened. So there's a bit of a vicious circle involved - petrodollars tending to be retained and recycled due to the USD being the de facto world reserve currency, and the petrodollar also helping to prop up the dollars status as reserve currency.
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby cube » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 05:05:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gampy', 'D')ude. The only reason the US can maintain it's current trade deficit and economy is because oil is priced in US dollars.
TOTALLY DISAGREE

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gampy', 'T')here are many threads on this site devoted to the petrodollar and implications thereof.

Search "petrodollar" and you will find the answer to your question.
There seems to be 2 schools of thought:
1) people who believe in this petrodollar theory
2) and of course people who don't
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby cube » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 05:23:34

I guess I have to explain myself now huh?

I believe that ultimately what is important is whether the rest of the world wishes to hold onto US dollars. The fact that oil is priced in US dollars is irrelevant.

What's keeping the US dollar afloat right now is the central bankers of the world (especially Asian nations) holding onto US dollars.
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby MrBill » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 05:49:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I') guess I have to explain myself now huh?

I believe that ultimately what is important is whether the rest of the world wishes to hold onto US dollars. The fact that oil is priced in US dollars is irrelevant.

What's keeping the US dollar afloat right now is the central bankers of the world (especially Asian nations) holding onto US dollars.


Correct. Demand for USD does NOT come from pricing OIL in USD, but from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers and Asian exporters deciding to retain some or all of their export receipts in USD denominated assets.

I have covered this before. I can post links, but right now I am off to the beach, so no time.

Basically,
1. you sell yen, yuan or euros to buy USD
2. you then sell USD to buy oil
3. net net there is no extra demand for USD
and then
4. the exporter can sell USD to buy yen, yuan or euro assets

If they decide to keep their export receipts in USD that is another matter altogether. That is because they want USD assets. Why I do not know, but apparently they do despite their public concerns to the contrary.

You can make the argument that OPEC or non-OPEC oil producers or Asian exporters need to keep USD to pay for imports, but as Asians and Germans are large exporters as well you can argue that those trade flows could also be denominated in yen, yuan or euros if they so choose. No one forces them to use the USD. And some like Iran obviously would prefer not to.

Off to the beach now. Cheers.
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby pogoliamo » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 07:08:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'W')hy I do not know


Oil is sold in USD. It makes oil quoted in USD. So oil and USD are
counterwight. A hedge. That a good reason and you cant deny it :)

There are also polical reasons. As fiat currency the ultimate value of
USD is nothing. It is the trust of the public which makes a currency
to hold any value. This is even more the case when there are high
deficits. If oil, which is somehing valuable, is quoted in USD, it means
it can be exchanged for USD. It give the USD ultimate value, special
priviledge.

What you are illustrating is a pure accounting calculation, unfortunatelly
the world and economics is not only a multiplication by an FX rate.

MrBill, your case is sooooooo wrong. Dead wrong! But I agree i is
technically correct :)

PS I should also say I always enjoy reading your comments
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby SILENTTODD » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 08:08:01

I don't really care in the short term;

Buy nothing but Gold. Make everything in America like we use to. Then everything will turn around. Don't talk to me till then!
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby kjmclark » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 09:25:16

Actually, it does matter, and some people have danced around the reason, but not quite hit it. Here's how I understand it.

Countries maintain currency reserves of foreign currencies to help keep their own currency stable (e.g. China) and to ensure that they can buy important goods in world markets. If the seller of a particular good wants payment in a particular currency, it behooves you to have a reserve of that currency to ensure you can make payments at a reasonable cost (without currency transaction fees), even in a time of emergency. Since most of the world has a reserve of US Dollars, and the world's most important commodity is traded in US Dollars, that works acceptably well for everyone.

It works particularly well for the issuer of that world reserve currency, since the rest of the world, by holding your currency, is giving you valuable goods/services for nothing more than pieces of paper you issue.

So the real value to the US of having oil traded in dollars is that it makes sense for the rest of the world to have dollar reserves. If the oil exporting countries decide to take payments in other currencies, there won't be as much value to various countries to hold dollar reserves. In that case, those dollars will come back to the US, with various, mostly negative, effects for the US.
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby vision-master » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 10:08:13

So you thought you were bringin' "freedom" to the IRAQ people? Pffffft... think again! This time try using your brain.

IRAQ = OIL = U.S. Petrodollars
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby Denny » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 12:15:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gampy', 'D')ude. The only reason the US can maintain it's current trade deficit and economy is because oil is priced in US dollars.

There are many threads on this site devoted to the petrodollar and implications thereof.

Search "petrodollar" and you will find the answer to your question.



Well, I hav read and have searched, and yes there are many but everyone just leaps to the concusion that buying oil priced in another currency is curtains for the US$. No real analysis, just seems like emotions. I don't see anything different from buying consumer goods from China priced in yuan or aircarft from France priced in euro.
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby FloridaGirl » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 12:17:38

When the US invaded Iraq, the soldiers found huge stashes of millions of US dollars. At the time, I wondered why they had US dollars. Why wasn't their stashes in their own currency or a mix of currencies if they didn't trust their own? I didn't know then that all oil was traded in US dollars.

So if Iraq was stashing dollars, I expect other exporting oil countries are stashing dollars. When they keep the cash, that adds to the world-wide demand for the US dollar.

Here's where the US economy could go bad real fast if (oops, change "if" to "when") the world loses faith in the stability and/or value of the dollar. When the holders of the dollar see it's value falling too much they will start selling their dollars for more stable currencies, thus flooding the market (adding dollar supply) and then they will insist on other currencies for their oil (reducing dollar demand at the same time).

What we'll see here in the US is tremendous inflation.
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby Denny » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 12:25:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pogoliamo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'W')hy I do not know


Oil is sold in USD. It makes oil quoted in USD. So oil and USD are
counterwight. A hedge. That a good reason and you cant deny it :)

There are also polical reasons. As fiat currency the ultimate value of
USD is nothing.


Oil is sold and quoted in US$, but its not a firm price, the changes every day presumably reflect the underlying value of the US dollar relative to other currencies.

I don't agree that the underlying value of the U.S. dollar is nothing. Every dollar is a claim on the most important economy in the world, and one that relative to the world has shown great stability over time. Even today, one can argue that the U.S. dollar is undervalued in terms of what it can buy domestially compared to what other world currencies can buy in their countries. I know this, I just returned from an overseas trip where I found that most people more in euros than Americans pay in dollars for the same goods and services. A big portion of that is due to taxes, but there is a good 15%% or more in the European price structure that is either high labor costs, inefficiencies inside their economies or overvaluations of the euro.
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby pogoliamo » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 17:15:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', ' ')Even today, one can argue that the U.S. dollar is undervalued in terms of what it can buy domestially compared to what other world currencies can buy in their countries. I know this, I just returned from an overseas trip where I found that most people more in euros than Americans pay in dollars for the same goods and services.


Nice observation! The Purchasing Power Parity is one fundamental indicator for
currency strength :) In the case of the usd, the puchasing power
advantage you discovered is only a consequence of it the special
status of the dollar and not a genuine value of the dollar.

Now it is easier to explain why the euro evolved from 0.8 to 1.3852
recently and why the trend will continue in the future.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')very dollar is a claim on the most important economy in the world


Saying that today is a bit ridiculous, the dollar is just a source of
humiliation for the USAmericans, it's worth just a bit less than a
ticket for Titanic. :-D
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 17:54:48

What Cube and Mr Bill said +1.

This story of "Iranian euro oil bourse of doom" tends to float around wacky unreliable left wing sites the same way "Al-Qaeda suitcase nukes from Russia of doom" float around wacky RW sites. Sure Iran not keeping their piggybank in USD denominated assets is negative for the USD, but in the grand scheme of things (international capital flows) a two-bit nation not buying USD assets is basically irrelevent.
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Re: What does it matter if oil is traded in US$ or other?

Unread postby Qolio » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 18:35:21

Ok, I hope someone can tell me if I've understood correctly. (The numbers are just examples, don't take them seriously.)
1) Because oil is traded in dollars, other countries must have huge dollar reserves, lets say $1 trillion.
2) More dollars are printed by US, and more credit money is created, so that dollar supply increases by 10%.
3) Dollar value drops by 10%. (Well, perhaps not this much, but that's irrelevant here.)
4) Other countries' dollar reserves lose 10% of their "real value", i.e. $100 billion.
5) They need to buy 100 billion dollars more just to keep the real value of the reserves constant.
6) Practically, US is getting $100billion worth of oil, other products, or other currencies for free.

Comments? :oops:
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