[Revi]

I can't see the whole thing lasting another 2 years. It'll be hard to hold things up for that long around here. Here in Maine it's already getting bad. People are already in trouble around here. It may not get as bad as the rest of the country, but it starts earlier. The housing market has tanked, vacationland seems really quiet and the cost of heating oil and gasoline will put a damper on the economy a lot earlier around here, since we don't make as much as people in other parts of the country. They asked an old Mainer how he got through the depression and he answered, "I didn't know it was over".

[Sasquatch]

This is my inaugural post.

I'm surprised no one has started a forum pool on this subject.

Let's identify some clear markers of a state of TSHTF (i.e. the Dow drops below 6000; the Fed announces a "bank holiday" to stem a run; a foreign country dumps the dollar; etc.) - perhaps the forum veterans can offer suggestions, or we can do a poll and the top 3-5 will be used.

Then we can all predict a date to the occurrence of each marker. When that marker happens, the one with the closest prediction can declare themselves Nostradamus for a day.

As for me, while all who visit this site are clearly plugged in and PO aware - 99.99% of the rest of the population has not an inkling that anything is amiss. Sure, there are some, maybe even many, who have a sense of "unease" about something - but they likely attribute it to Iraq, the ME in general, the grand opening of the latest Wal-Mart, the rising cost of increasingly tasteless strawberries, who knows...

Even if the housing market does implode and gas edges up steadily over the next year or two to $4-$5/gal, I really believe that absent some other massive catalyzing event (pandemic flu anyone?), the anglo-saxon masses will do their utmost to cling to the belief that "it will get better" - or at least - "it won't get any worse."

For all the discussions on this forum about human nature - and despite the general pessimistic streak of it's residents - people do not want to contemplate "bad things happening" - or at least not to them. The masses will desperately grasp onto the hope that those aren't really dark clouds on the horizon - all the while steering the ship in that direction at full speed ahead.

Even with a recession, housing implosion, a high gas prices, I don't foresee a widespread understanding (much less a discussion of any merit) in the general public of PO and it's consequences for at least two years. The government, the oil industry, and the media will do a standup job at presenting a case for just about anything other "the oil's running out" for as long as they can. But in the mean time, you can bet Frank Carlucci and group will be shoring up the compound walls and stockpiling twinkies.

Greetings.

[grink1tt3n]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sasquatch', '
')As for me, while all who visit this site are clearly plugged in and PO aware - 99.99% of the rest of the population has not an inkling that anything is amiss. Sure, there are some, maybe even many, who have a sense of "unease" about something - but they likely attribute it to Iraq, the ME in general, the grand opening of the latest Wal-Mart, the rising cost of increasingly tasteless strawberries, who knows...

[vision-master]

Most are in total denial if informed about PO. Matter of fact, 99.99% of the people That I do inform get down right ugly about the subject.

[eXpat]

Hi Sasquatch, is true that most people doesn't know and dont want to know, and that's the reason why the masses dont go rushing to the bank and the SHTF starts formally (and things still go on as normal).
I was as well (as you suggested) check for some indicators that show that is finally time to barricade the door, but since I'm not the economic type, I read about crisis in Russia, the great depression and although there are similarities of course I coudn't make a list of items to check and formaly mark that this is it.
Maybe some of the more knowlable people here can suggest some things to look for? I think it would be of good help for everyone here.

[darren]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', '
')What would happen if a democratic Iraq decided to trade in Petroeuros and refused to sell to the US?

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IrrationalExuberanceMonky', '
')I ain't buying it...

Seee you in the doom....

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'M')ost are in total denial if informed about PO. Matter of fact, 99.99% of the people That I do inform get down right ugly about the subject.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IrrationalExuberanceMonky', '
')I ain't buying it...

Seee you in the doom....

[IrrationalExuberanceMonky]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IrrationalExuberanceMonky', '
')I ain't buying it...

Seee you in the doom....

[Revi]

The standard of living is definitely going down. It's more and more expensive for the average person to make a living, and we are all getting dragged down slowly by it. I wonder what the lowering of the fed's rates is going to do? Start up a new bubble? They predict that they will cut rates this year. Won't that make our t-bonds less attractive to the Chinese and Japanese who are keeping us afloat? Will we be able to count on them for the 1.8 billion we borrow a day if we cut rates?

[PraiseDoom]

[quote="Revi"]The standard of living is definitely going down. It's more and more expensive for the average person to make a living, and we are all getting dragged down slowly by it. [\quote]

The Prophets don't speak of "long and slow declines which nobody will notice" they speak of DOOM.

Zombies, parked food transport trucks, airplanes falling out of the sky. Poor mouthing the effects a vast majority expected just a couple of years ago does disservice to historical perspective.

[Baldwin]

If I am lucky, I will need this cherade to really hold for 12 months, 18 comfortably, and any more is gravy.

I wager that we can keep this up until 2010. It'll be increasingly difficult as we grind through '08 and '09, but I wouldn't start with "end of life as we know it" talk until 2010. We shouldn't underestimate a power-hungry, albeit dying, lion's ability to carry on.

I feel extremely helpless and desperate. I am stuck in suburbia and will very likely be stuck in my senior year of high school. Do you know how miserable it will be to watch my civilization unwind glued to a chair listening to some sheep proselytize or dried up English major assign a paper that disappears and presumably is enver read? (I go to a Catholic school and the priests/brothers can be rather....overconfident at times. I say this and yet I aspire to be a priest, but I must be honest).

I honestly want to quit senior year, just take the GED tests ( I've covered the material), and pursue priestly aspirations. (It would dramatically reduce my fossil fuel use, as I'd pretty much read books and teach CCD/catechist classes for an hour at 4pm at the local parish school. I would walk to the school). The one problem is that the priestly aspirations might be damaged by not completing that last year and earning a high school diploma, rather getting a GED.

[Rabbit]

The down side is that you would find yourself looking for children to have sex with.

Put down the bible, and get your head out of your ass. The bible was written published and printed by people.

If you want to help people, apply yourself to educating people about the changes they need to make in the transition to a post oil world.

[Alcassin]

Old religions of nature would be more appopriate. They worshipped trees, rain and sun. That was really universal Everybody can live without symbols and dogmas of faith, but no one can live without sun, trees and rain. Simplicity is always stunning.

Baldwin do what you want, you choose "black international" it is up to you, but you wanna teach people that contraception is bad... population control is bad and so on? I can pray to your god that not many of the sheeple you will teach gonna take it seriously.

At the end don't be so sure that you're gonna be in heaven, maybe Jews are right, or maybe muslims are right? Who knows, who knows?

[galacticsurfer]

I understand seminary is a hard slog and very selective and they don't like very young people like yourself without life experience just jumping in there without seriously knowing what they want in life(can you live without sex,etc. so Iwould say it is an impractical decision at this point in time. Try out various things as a seminary prep, i.e. whatever major would count towards seminary or else in seminary take classes that would count outside in "real life" if you drop out. Be flexible. As a teenager I once thought of priesthood. At this age interests can change quickly, particularly considering that TEOTWAWKI is happening on the news everday making a 7 year committment to any college course is unrealistic.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', 'T')he Prophets don't speak of "long and slow declines which nobody will notice" they speak of DOOM.

Zombies, parked food transport trucks, airplanes falling out of the sky. Poor mouthing the effects a vast majority expected just a couple of years ago does disservice to historical perspective.

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', ' ')When oil pushes past $100 who knows, he may be right - most others say we'll simply face more economic turmoil.

[gnm]

Don't worry the economic collapse will keep the price from going too high...


-G

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rabbit', 'P')ut down the bible, and get your head out of your ass. The bible was written published and printed by people.

If you want to help people, apply yourself to educating people about the changes they need to make in the transition to a post oil world.