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Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby Alcassin » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 14:48:34

NArz, I admit you are in serious denial of reality.

People live in harm, compete not cooperate. You have to cooperate in global scale and discard competition. And this is improbable if not impossible.

I give you one example: Mom bought a snickers to her two sons, if she doesn't divide it into two halves they will fight each other over it. This is our "competition" culture. She made scarcity because each of her sons think this bar is for him. When she give it to one son more - making him priviliged (in any society we created we have priviliged class, and globally we have priviliged nations), and this is worse - we are used to thinking "this is ours".

In reality there is nobody to play mom's role.

We will compete, the world exists on the paradigm of competition. Once limits of growth are recognized it will become true - that economy is always win-lose game because of scarcity. Humanity is nonprofit, it doesn't produce more goods and doesn't care about the shareholders.

First - as humanity we have to stop slaughter each other and cooperate - impossible.
Second - as humanity we have to forget about our national interest, as it is catalyst for global competition - impossible.
Third - we need international agreement - forget it, impossible, look at Kyoto, and bigger efforts will be dismissed as well.
Fourth - we need to create quotas for oil, as it is scarce - this is absolutely impossible. We will compete by paying more or militarize this.
Fifth - we need set global population limits - IMPOSSIBLE, as abortion is treated like a murder, this is also war on religion. Sorry man, doesn't help as people believe in heaven-hell things.
Sixth - we need to use more of our fossil fuel to create sustainable technologies, not jet fuel for fighters, and diesel for tanks, and gas for SUV. Did I mention impossible?
Seventh - shift cultural thinking from "resources exist to be consumed" to "we have to manage them carefully". IMPOSSIBLE - it is not thinking of average man, it is not thinking of profit makers, people die they don't change.

Einstein once said "if 2% of world population agreed not to fight, we will never see wars". Forget, they rule, we follow.

Doomers know one thing - world will not change, so ultimately doom is inevitable.
Peak oil is only an indication and a premise of limits to growth on a finite planet.
Denial is the most predictable of all human responses.
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 14:50:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'W')e just don't want to hear that "doomer" negativity, no matter how rooted in solid biological science and history.


Don't we see that pattern here?

People are raliing against the notion, thinking, the very idea of a die-off from overshoot.

You rail against me, as if it is my thinking, my ideology, my beliefs that are in question.

Where are the critical minds that will try to refute the known biological science behind overshoot and collapse?

Where are the critical minds to try and refute Catton's seminal work on overshoot?

Folks, this isn't about me. I am just the messenger.

This is about your denial of reality.

This is about your denial of how the world works.
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby Chesire » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 15:16:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Folks, this isn't about me. I am just the messenger.

This is about your denial of reality.

This is about your denial of how the world works


Denial is not just personal its society wide from my observations. IE if there are only going to be 500 million people post oil crash. It will break down something along these lines.

My little section of the world minus all the people I think need to be culled . Plus x amount of friendly , allied or people similar to me that add up to make up the difference to 500 million ).
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby Ferretlover » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 16:16:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ') Changing a culture is possible, but changing humanity is not.


Ok, I admit it-I am dense. Could you please hit the highlights: How can there be any human culture that doesn't contain humans?
If a culture changes, doesn't that also mean that the humans made a change that changed their culture? IMHO, a culture can not change on its own-it is not a living entity.
I do understand that there are different kinds of cultures (although, I think that they all must have some similarities); I have never heard of a human culture that could survive without using the environment-eating up the plants, hunting , fishing, breathing..

"There are other cultures on earth that don't practice all out war on the environment."

Are you saying that a culture with the least interaction with the environment is the only viable culture? (I have written and rewritten this sentence about ten times..)

Take a deep breath, and be patient with me-but, I really am trying to understand your theory.
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 16:45:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ') Changing a culture is possible, but changing humanity is not.


Ok, I admit it-I am dense. Could you please hit the highlights: How can there be any human culture that doesn't contain humans?
If a culture changes, doesn't that also mean that the humans made a change that changed their culture? IMHO, a culture can not change on its own-it is not a living entity.
I do understand that there are different kinds of cultures (although, I think that they all must have some similarities); I have never heard of a human culture that could survive without using the environment-eating up the plants, hunting , fishing, breathing..

"There are other cultures on earth that don't practice all out war on the environment."

Are you saying that a culture with the least interaction with the environment is the only viable culture? (I have written and rewritten this sentence about ten times..)

Take a deep breath, and be patient with me-but, I really am trying to understand your theory.


We used to practice "limited competition" like all other forms of life...until we created agri-culture which forgot about the law of nature. Then we waged all out war on it, killing everything but human food.

There are cultures today that still practice limited competition and do not have famines, even in drought conditions. Can you name them?

Trouble is, with the Great Forgetting, we forgot.

Read the Story of B by Daniel Quinn.
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby Ferretlover » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 17:01:44

"Can you name them? "

No, I don't think so.

"Read the Story of B by Daniel Quinn."

Ok, I will. Be prepared-I may have more questions! :-)
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby Narz » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 20:03:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'N')Arz, I admit you are in serious denial of reality.

That sentence doesn't really make sense.

What you're really saying is "I disagree".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'P')eople live in harm,

What does that mean?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', ' ')compete not cooperate.

People do both.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', ' ')You have to cooperate in global scale and discard competition. And this is improbable if not impossible.

People do both every day and will continue to do both. It's in our genes and our best interest.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'I') give you one example: Mom bought a snickers to her two sons, if she doesn't divide it into two halves they will fight each other over it. This is our "competition" culture. She made scarcity because each of her sons think this bar is for him. When she give it to one son more - making him priviliged (in any society we created we have priviliged class, and globally we have priviliged nations), and this is worse - we are used to thinking "this is ours".

In reality there is nobody to play mom's role.

We will compete, the world exists on the paradigm of competition. Once limits of growth are recognized it will become true - that economy is always win-lose game because of scarcity. Humanity is nonprofit, it doesn't produce more goods and doesn't care about the shareholders.
Economy is not a zero-sum game. Otherwise how to explain increasing quality of life. Oh yeah, oil. Interesting theory but quality of life was increasing long before oil. Some might even argue it peaked before oil (as the oil has tended to spoil us rotten like the two little boys addicted to candy).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'F')irst - as humanity we have to stop slaughter each other and cooperate - impossible.
First - we said that solution (built your strawman) and how is fighting or not fighting an issue here?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'S')econd - as humanity we have to forget about our national interest, as it is catalyst for global competition - impossible.
Again, why would that be a solution?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'T')hird - we need international agreement - forget it, impossible, look at Kyoto, and bigger efforts will be dismissed as well.
How do you know? They won't be dismissed if they're enforced and people take them seriously. People dealt with rations before.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'F')ourth - we need to create quotas for oil, as it is scarce - this is absolutely impossible. We will compete by paying more or militarize this.
Again, why is it impossible (besides that your opinion is "the truth" and all)?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'F')ifth - we need set global population limits - IMPOSSIBLE, as abortion is treated like a murder, this is also war on religion. Sorry man, doesn't help as people believe in heaven-hell things.
Not impossible. The largest nation on Earth is doing it. Most Western nations (Italy, England, etc.) are in population decline except for immigrants & their kids. (note : not against immigrants per se, just saying)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'S')ixth - we need to use more of our fossil fuel to create sustainable technologies, not jet fuel for fighters, and diesel for tanks, and gas for SUV. Did I mention impossible?
Yeah, it seems to be your favorite word.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'S')eventh - shift cultural thinking from "resources exist to be consumed" to "we have to manage them carefully". IMPOSSIBLE - it is not thinking of average man, it is not thinking of profit makers, people die they don't change.
Not impossible. People are already making this shift, rising energy costs will help them make it (by force if necessary).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'E')instein once said "if 2% of world population agreed not to fight, we will never see wars". Forget, they rule, we follow.
Man, it must be depressing to be as apathetic as you are. :(

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'D')oomers believe one thing - world will not change, so ultimately doom is inevitable.

They also believe a second thing, that their ideas and theories are fact & gospel.
There, edited that for you. ;)
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby Narz » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 20:07:08

By the way, I second the Daniel Quinn recommendation. Good books.

Remember though, when you read social philosophy (which is what Quinn is) that philosophy is merely theories, not facts. Take everything with a grain of salt and don't forsake critical thought and become an ideology (even a pretty good one).

As sum ol gai said, "beware of the man of one book".
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby Narz » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 20:17:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')nd this false belief that we can alter or be above nature is what brought us to this cliff. Man cannot change biology. He can affect it, but change it? What hubris!

Is hubris your favorite word? Of course we can change it and have changed it. Oft-times for bad, oft-times for good.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'T')he Indian never trusted the "White Man," as he appeared to the Indian as quite presumptuous; a quality they never fathomed. How could anyone presume to improve upon Nature, much less, out live it?

“The white man seeks to conquer nature, to bend it to his will and to use it wastefully until it’s all gone and then he simply moves on, leaving the waste behind him and looking for new places to take. The whole white race is a monster who is always hungry and what he eats is land.”
—Chiksika, elder brother of Tecumseh, March 19, 1779

Yeah, I agree we have to scale down our greed but demonizing whitie and making it seem like all achievement is as bad as the worst of what Europeans (and now Chinese, Japanese, etc.) have done is not helpful.

Maybe you're a primitivist who would prefer life without the Internet, I know for myself, I'm grateful for it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ikewise, stewardship of the land and permacultural practices can raise it. Would you disagree to this?


Yes it can, but not beyond sustainable limits and it cannot replace a phantom carrying capacity.

What is the exact carrying capacity of Arizona? What is the exact carrying capacity of Earth? Who gets to have children? Who doesn't? I haven't read your other site but am curious when talking to people (especially in real life) how you answer these questions. I imagine you probably don't say, "You want to raise children?! What hubris!!". :-D

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o you must agree that making the planet livable (at least for some) is a worthy goal, right?

Of course, but only if you reduce the existing population at the same time. Otherwise, you perpetuate the overshoot. We need to shift to permaculture while reducing food production.
People won't reduce food production except by force. Look at the people here as an example. What do people do when scared? Grow more. Horde more. The coming years will be filled with people trying to get as much food/oil/wealth/safety as they can. I suppose you probably agree and predict this as the beginning of the end. Maybe you're right but I don't think you're as right as you'd like to be.

I've seen some pretty strange estimates flying around. One guy said something like "The Earth was never meant to hold more than 500,000 people total". I wonder where he gets his numbers.

What's your worldwide estimate just out of curiosity & how did you come up with it?
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby bshirt » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 20:32:00

MQ;

Pray tell, for one so extremely knowledgable about "overshoot", why do you chose to live with over six million people in a desert?
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby keehah » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 21:03:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')erretlover:IMHO, we should be trained, almost from birth, how to function without destroying our environment. To have the least amount of negative impact on the planet no matter what we do.


This fixes half the problem, so your culture has decided to stop growing in numbers. You will then be overrun by a neighbouring culture that continues growing. As has been noted:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')hose who decide to live unsustainably will always get a temporary upper hand over those who try otherwise.


So your group not only will have to live sustainably, but in addition have the means to fight off all those groups that do not. And groups that could decide to use all their resources in an attempt to grab yours.

So some of our elites may have decided the solution is to make the entire world their small group's private property.

Could a part of MQ's thesis be the entire world needs to become common property if a stable civilization could be attempted (back to hunter-gather)?

Should we not worry too much questioning if the sustianablilty problem or delusion is not solvable at the macro level? What can I as a single person do? Live sustianably, conserve local resources and maintain the means to fight off the unsustainable neighbours.
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 22:56:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', ' ')What's your worldwide estimate just out of curiosity & how did you come up with it?


Obviously, you have read little of what I have written.

I have come up with nothing. I just do my homework and report.

The leading pherologists estimate that the carrying capacity of the earth is about 2 to 3 billion living a lifestyle and standard of living far below the first world, with a large focus on ecological care, preservation of biodiversity, pollution control, food equity across the globe, and using renewable sustainable systems.

This link shows studies that say it is 2 to 5 billion using many of the same metrics. I cite it, as it is a broad example of various studies and is not cherry-picked facts.

http://www.ilea.org/leaf/richard2002.html
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby Ferretlover » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 23:03:03

"You will then be overrun by a neighbouring culture that continues growing. "

But, what if our group a** whups the other group-Without harming the environment?? Would that be okay?? :-)
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 23:04:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bshirt', 'M')Q;

Pray tell, for one so extremely knowledgable about "overshoot", why do you chose to live with over six million people in a desert?


I don't live in the desert. Arizona is not all desert. We have the largest stand of Ponderosa pines in the entire world. I live in the middle of a wilderness area in a small town near a fertile valley with one of the longest stretches of willd and scenic river in the US. I can walk to catch trout. I have fresh water springs nearby. I am a desert ecologist and know the edible plants.

And I was born here in Winslow, Arizona. I know the country.

I also own a working farm in Missouri.

It isn't so much about where you live but about who you surround yourself with. Your skills and theirs.
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 23:09:25

And, of course, this is a good refernce as well. Everything I have ever written about overshoot is supported by these experts in the field.

The Case For Dramatically Reducing Human Numbers

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')illey declares his complete agreement with Smail and deplores the fact that those who disagree with the often apocalyptic conclusions of pherologists (students of carrying capacity) rarely provide detailed rebuttals.


Always my point.
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby Alcassin » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 06:48:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'P')eople live in harm,

What does that mean?


Sry, I meant "do harm" :lol:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')People do both.


Middle East is an example of competition for "our oil", we cooperate with some tyrants there.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')People do both every day and will continue to do both. It's in our genes and our best interest.


Sure we will ally to kill others. Like Eastern Island.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Economy is not a zero-sum game. Otherwise how to explain increasing quality of life. Oh yeah, oil. Interesting theory but quality of life was increasing long before oil. Some might even argue it peaked before oil (as the oil has tended to spoil us rotten like the two little boys addicted to candy).

Sure as we live in the world of abundance it appears not to be zero-sum. When it changes to scarcity it become a zero-sum game. Others must die for our growth. Oil is just an example - we can exhaust all the materials in order to mantain unsustainable way of life.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', '
')First - we said that solution (built your strawman) and how is fighting or not fighting an issue here?

Every war is doom for those who die. 20th century was an endless war, we have tools to destroy all nations... Every war is an opportunity to start war to end all wars.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'S')econd - as humanity we have to forget about our national interest, as it is catalyst for global competition - impossible.
Again, why would that be a solution?

Solution is simple - when you have thousands of people competing about one thing give me a guarantee that they will not slaughter each other.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'T')hird - we need international agreement - forget it, impossible, look at Kyoto, and bigger efforts will be dismissed as well.
How do you know? They won't be dismissed if they're enforced and people take them seriously. People dealt with rations before.

Peakers are not in majority, I don't think that we will ever be.
135kk Americans believe that Flintstones are documentary (dinosaurs lived with humans). Most people around the world never read a book... I think that human condition is helpless.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'F')ourth - we need to create quotas for oil, as it is scarce - this is absolutely impossible. We will compete by paying more or militarize this.
Again, why is it impossible (besides that your opinion is "the truth" and all)?

I read about almost all conflicts in 20th century, my observation is simple - we rather fight and not cooperate. Europeans and Russians would have started projects in Iraq by 2004... but somebody was first and won competition. It was national interest. Every country want to grow as fast as possible - so they will start wars to keep the growth going.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'F')ifth - we need set global population limits - IMPOSSIBLE, as abortion is treated like a murder, this is also war on religion. Sorry man, doesn't help as people believe in heaven-hell things.
Not impossible. The largest nation on Earth is doing it. Most Western nations (Italy, England, etc.) are in population decline except for immigrants & their kids. (note : not against immigrants per se, just saying)

In 2050 there will be around 9 biliion people, Europe is just an old lady. If not forced abortions in China (30-50 milion each year - there would be around 1,8 bilion Chinese). Still impossible... Can you imagine how Saudis or other sharia country are fighting population growth?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'S')eventh - shift cultural thinking from "resources exist to be consumed" to "we have to manage them carefully". IMPOSSIBLE - it is not thinking of average man, it is not thinking of profit makers, people die they don't change.
Not impossible. People are already making this shift, rising energy costs will help them make it (by force if necessary).

Sure some do, nations don't. These who change are very little minority.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'E')instein once said "if 2% of world population agreed not to fight, we will never see wars". Forget, they rule, we follow.
Man, it must be depressing to be as apathetic as you are. :(

I'm a minimalist, I'm never dissapointed, when something good happens I'm very happy :)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')They also believe a second thing, that their ideas and theories are fact & gospel.
I admire your optimism :)
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby Narz » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 17:06:14

Hi Alcassin.

Sometimes growth is possible without taking from others. For example if I improve the soil on my lot I can feed maybe eight people instead of four. Now obviously it doesn't go on forever (eventually there's a limit and IMO it's usually important to not push it) but I don't agree that all progress comes at the expense of another. Look in nature, it's full of symbiotic mutually beneficial relationships. Now granted such victories (by cooperation) aren't generally as highly touted in this culture and people live in fear of others but I'd say a cooperative society (even one of just a few hundred the hell out of the way of the rest :lol: ) is possible. Just got to plan carefully.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'S')olution is simple - when you have thousands of people competing about one thing give me a guarantee that they will not slaughter each other.

They won't? Why not?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'P')eakers are not in majority, I don't think that we will ever be.
135kk Americans believe that Flintstones are documentary (dinosaurs lived with humans). Most people around the world never read a book... I think that human condition is helpless.

I think that's more a product of poor education than anything. The Bushman of Africa might believe a lot of silly things but it doesn't mean they're hopeless.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'I') read about almost all conflicts in 20th century, my observation is simple - we rather fight and not cooperate.

It depends mostly on whether we think we can get away with it or not. We're not at war with 99% of the world who we have trade relationships with. Violence seems to be only a last resort unless things get desperate (which I don't deny they might).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'E')instein once said "if 2% of world population agreed not to fight, we will never see wars". Forget, they rule, we follow.

Man, it must be depressing to be as apathetic as you are. :([/quote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'I')'m a minimalist, I'm never dissapointed, when something good happens I'm very happy :)
Sounds like a good attitude to have towards life. :)
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby Alcassin » Mon 30 Jul 2007, 07:28:04

Hi Narz.

Economy is not a zero-sum game in short-term. With abundance of resources and growing productivity. Productivity also cannot grow forever. That's my point.
Oil-based economy in long-term seem to be a zero-sum game when decline will start - it will rather mean that we used that oil to build western societies and we used it only for us.

Bushmen in Africa don't elect president of nuclear empire ;)
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 02:41:06

Just a reminder about this denial syndrome that is running amok.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby Jenab6 » Fri 30 Nov 2007, 22:53:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mark', 'W')ho is John Galt?

He's a fictional character. Who was Paul Warburg?
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