Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 06 Mar 2008, 02:29:32

As oil goes north of $104/barrell, I still see the "techno-fixers" ranting on about how little of the solar flux we need to replace our energy needs. :roll:

Warren Buffet doesn't see a techno-fix in the offing, and neither does Richard Heinberg in his latest prose.

http://energybulletin.net/41231.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Richard Heinberg', 'A')ddressing the core of the problem means letting go of growth; in fact, it means engaging in a period of controlled societal contraction characterized by a stable or declining population consuming at a per-capita level far lower than is currently taken for granted in the industrialized world.

For anyone who understands the basics of ecology—having to do with relationships between population, resources, and carrying capacity—nothing could be clearer. But for those who insist on seeing only technical problems with technical solutions, the forest remains lost from sight behind a single tree.

To be sure: minimally polluting technologies must be part of our response to climate change and all the other symptoms of global crisis—whether those technologies include wind turbines, better public transit systems, or more efficient electrical storage devices. But just as important are changes in individual attitudes, habits, and expectations; and more essential still is a fundamental reworking of economic institutions and policies, so that endless growth ceases to be seen as good or even possible.

Some (Sir David King among them) would say that climate change is so serious and pressing a crisis that we may have to put off grappling with other environmental problems and use any means at our disposal—including otherwise problematic technologies such as nuclear power—to address it. But there is no way we can substitute alternative sources of energy—including nuclear—for fossil fuels to reduce carbon emissions as much and as quickly as the science says we must, unless we also dramatically reduce overall energy consumption. No matter how you slice it, we’ve got to downsize and re-localize our economies, and so culture change is indispensable to the required response.


We also seem to forget just how much of the peak oil dilemma is about economics.

And to top it off, we are going to try and replace liquid fuels with biofuels and CTL before we try to go electric via wind and solar.

And this goes for all of us, not just the poor countries or techno-impaired ones who are slashing their forests to grow palm oil.

Look at what this craze has done to the price of cereal grains, especially wheat and corn.

To feed our machines, something else has to go hungry.

There is no techno-fix.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby seldom_seen » Thu 06 Mar 2008, 02:49:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Richard Heinberg', '[')b]For anyone who understands the basics of ecology—having to do with relationships between population, resources, and carrying capacity—nothing could be clearer. But for those who insist on seeing only technical problems with technical solutions, the forest remains lost from sight behind a single tree.

Reminds me of what Aldo Leopold said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne of the penalties of an ecological education is that one lives alone in a world of wounds. Much of the damage inflicted on land is quite invisible to laymen. An ecologist must either harden his shell and make believe that the consequences of science are none of his business, or he must be the doctor who sees the marks of death in a community that believes itself well and does not want to be told otherwise.

It's really not the economy stupid. It's the ecology.

No matter how you slice it, dice it, cut it, roll it, flip it or fry it. Industrial civilization has a gaping blind spot when it comes to ecology. It's the achilles heel, the kryptonite that will cut our 'way of life' off at the knees.

Economists (and others) who are satisfied with nature-free equations develop a dangerous hubris about the potency of our species. ~Garett Hardin
seldom_seen
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2229
Joined: Tue 12 Apr 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby s0cks » Thu 06 Mar 2008, 07:22:32

It is actually rather heart-warming, and a bit of a relief to know that there are people like you Monte. Sometimes one can feel alone in his more than skeptic view of civilization. Richard Heingberg has also moved in a similiar direction to which I am greatly joyed.

I don't know about you, but it feels as if I am enlightened. As if I am wiser than most. I can see past the immediate "problem" of peak oil (I would be more inclined to call it, or hope it is a "semi-solution") that others are just too blind to see. While Bob see's solar as the next big thing, or that big hydrodam as his saviour... we know, it will only make it worse.

Its a BIG thing when you start to realize even renewables are the wrong way to go. It sounds a bit egoistic, but that is how it "feels".

We know nothing will change. But atleast we can try to take care of ourselves if nothing more, as the rest wander around like headless chickens saying "WTF?".

Monte, do you bother arguing with people anymore? After reaching this point of "enlightenment" it seems so pointless to do so. I came to these conclusions by myself. The material is plentiful if people wish to watch/read it. Its up to them to analyze and draw their own conclusions.
User avatar
s0cks
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 108
Joined: Wed 17 Oct 2007, 03:00:00
Location: New of Zealand

Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby DryObserver » Sun 09 Mar 2008, 22:50:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'S')orry Revi, I was trying on a joke there. I didn't intend for you to do anything more than acknowledge that the worst is possible (what so much humor relies on) and leave it at that. I have been thinking about some of what you have done as well. I reckon that a wind generator can be put together from left overs of the old age fairly easily. Everything is, after all, already under the hood, everything except the blades (which can probably be made from the doors) and the inverter that can be taken from an RV.


I think that's a good attitude. We need more people to take a practical, adaptive stance in dealing with the kind of problems peak oil is apt to bring.

Personally, I don't know how much electricity you could get out of a car's electronics, but since there's apt to be a few hundred million lying around unused in the U.S. after a crash, it's a resource to bear in mind. Even if you burn out a few car-based turbines, you can always find more.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'I') suppose water is really the hard thing to ensure you have enough of? Then you can list the longer term things that will be difficult, like anti-biotics. I guess I can grow my own for glaucoma. As far as defending myself, I'll succeed or I guess I die. I know my chances are better in a group. My loved one's chances certainly are.

As for whether there is a chance mankind could have avoided this. Yes, I think so. Of course, that is assuming that we learned to live within our means. I suspect, in fact, that everyone that has ever lived could probably live at once on the planet given the right way of living. There is a lot to overcome down that road, however, and I have a hard time believing that man will get there is one fell swoop. After this works its way out, maybe?


Speaking of water, tomorrow I'll be posting my cheap, solar desalination invention (public domain, so anyone can use it) either here or on the Life After the Oil Crash forum. Do with it what you will.

Renewing the Earth: Public Domain Inventions for a Sustainable Future
User avatar
DryObserver
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 40
Joined: Sat 23 Feb 2008, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby BigTex » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 00:50:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Richard Heinberg', '[')b]For anyone who understands the basics of ecology—having to do with relationships between population, resources, and carrying capacity—nothing could be clearer. But for those who insist on seeing only technical problems with technical solutions, the forest remains lost from sight behind a single tree.

Reminds me of what Aldo Leopold said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne of the penalties of an ecological education is that one lives alone in a world of wounds. Much of the damage inflicted on land is quite invisible to laymen. An ecologist must either harden his shell and make believe that the consequences of science are none of his business, or he must be the doctor who sees the marks of death in a community that believes itself well and does not want to be told otherwise.

It's really not the economy stupid. It's the ecology.

No matter how you slice it, dice it, cut it, roll it, flip it or fry it. Industrial civilization has a gaping blind spot when it comes to ecology. It's the achilles heel, the kryptonite that will cut our 'way of life' off at the knees.

Economists (and others) who are satisfied with nature-free equations develop a dangerous hubris about the potency of our species. ~Garett Hardin


Maybe if we had more ecological science fiction it would be different. Instead of reading of deep space trips, we should be reading about ecological adventurers who try to prevent damage to our habitat before it occurs.

Unfortunately, when I think about that I picture those idiots running into the tuna boats and hanging the banners off the side of their ships.
:)
User avatar
BigTex
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3858
Joined: Thu 03 Aug 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Graceland
Top

Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 22:46:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('s0cks', ' ')Monte, do you bother arguing with people anymore? After reaching this point of "enlightenment" it seems so pointless to do so. I came to these conclusions by myself. The material is plentiful if people wish to watch/read it. Its up to them to analyze and draw their own conclusions.


Only if it spins a new twist into the discussion. Most people, IMHO, do not have enough grasp of the concepts behind the peak oil issues to even debate them.

For exampole, not knowing the difference between exceeding the carrying capacity and overshoot.

The difference between reserves and production flow.

The EROEI of obtaining energy from any source.

And most of all, the failure to grasp how our money system is based upon cheap, readily accessible oil.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby Revi » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 23:06:48

There's a lot of desperate scrabbling around here. People seem to have a clue, then I talk to them and realize that they don't. The most popular vehicle for most males is the oversized Dodge truck. They aren't using them. They are just some kind of a massive suit of armor. Those of us with little trucks are always using them to haul things around.

I am starting to agree with you, Monte. I have a guy at my work who has told me to keep my mouth shut on energy issues. He feels that I shouldn't talk about them at all. He knows nothing about them, and doesn't want to know anything. I wish I had never talked about it with him in the first place.

It's rare that I talk with anyone who knows what is going on.

That's why this forum is such a great place.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby John_A » Tue 08 Oct 2013, 14:46:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')What ever happened to critical thinking?


Apparently it continues on in the ingenuity of oil men who are doing something quite unexpected when it comes to post-peak production rates.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Get very prepared for a war footing.


Love these old threads! Yup....5 years later....war footing....good one! NASCAR is still turning left, F1 is still racing, transoceanic shipping is still shipping, and the cars! Cars everywhere! And people keep buying them!

Doomer Tales from the dark ages...back when Savinar was predicting the draft was coming for this war footing.
45ACP: For when you want to send the very best.
John_A
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1193
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2011, 21:16:36
Top

Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby John_A » Tue 08 Oct 2013, 15:07:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')
A nice to time to recollect Montequest, the Peak-Oil Slayer. LOL. He took no prisoners, and was usurped.


Usurped isn't the right word when you throw out really bad prognostications and reality comes back and kicks you in the balls for it. "Running and hiding lest someone notice" might be a better way to describe what appears to be Monte's long absence. Certainly he wasn't euthanized for being old, nuked during the resource wars, he probably hasn't starved as lack of fuel stopped the tractors from running, he certainly wasn't drafted...DAMN what happened to the fast crashers? Their doomer porn was the best!

Some of the old website quotes which may have been "purged" from the history of this website but are immortalized elsewhere are great!! Here is a war footing for you! Take down the citizens!

"I always thought of a scenario where the food and supply shortage situation gets too out of hand.
The government would actually authorize nuclear euthanizations of mass population areas (LA, NYC, Dallas, etc) to quell the suffering.
Kind of like putting a dying horse out of its misery."
bentstrider 11-7-2004
45ACP: For when you want to send the very best.
John_A
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1193
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2011, 21:16:36
Top

Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Unread postby dsula » Tue 08 Oct 2013, 15:28:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')Doomer Tales from the dark ages...back when Savinar was predicting the draft was coming for this war footing.

Speaking of dark ages. I was wondering why the good old romans descended into it. Couldn't they just have innovated themselves out of a squeeze? Coal, oil, uranium all theirs for the taking. With low population density across Europe they could also have frakked for gas without causing much harm to population centers. I think it's good that we're so much smarter than the romans. We take care of business. LOL
User avatar
dsula
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 982
Joined: Wed 13 Jun 2007, 03:00:00
Top

Previous

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests

cron