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Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby Judgie » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 19:40:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mircea', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A') [/quoteprudent society would have invested in renewable sustainable systems long ago.


Wrong as usual.

Let me see you generate asphalt and plastic polymer base out of renewable wind, or solar, or nuclear power.

Bla Bla Bla...............



Mircea, I have no idea how long you have been lurking here for, prior to growing some balls and becoming a poster in May of this year. That's beside the point however, here's what I want you to do:

(1) You have several years of Montequest to read, go and read it. Understand the evolution of his arguments. Learn where he has been coming from for the last 3 years. I may have joined at the same time as you, but at least I have been taking the time to do exactly that.

(2) Get off your arrogant high-horse, and learn to be civil in your posting on this site, or you will be banned. Many have come before you, and many have been smited and readily forgotten. Would you like to be one of them?. It's not the content of your post that's the issue, it's your attitude.

(3)
When you have done the 1st objective, and learn't how to do the second, re-write that monstrosity of a post above.
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby Zardoz » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 21:12:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jellric', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mircea', 'Y')our're [Monte] so clueless.
I'm sorry but that is the most stunningly ignorant post I ever recall reading here at peakoil.com.

Agreed.

He's scared. He's frightened out of his wits. He knows what's coming, and he's so fearful of it he's in a full-on panic state. He's in a state of aggressive, belligerent denial. That nearly-incoherent post was fueled by panic-induced adrenaline.

It's tough to face, isn't it, Mircea? It's hard for all of us. None of us want to face what's coming. None of us want to believe that this incredibly convenient and comfortable culture we've created can ever come to an end. Deep inside, we want to believe that Dick Cheney's immortal line "the American way of life is non-negotiable" will somehow turn out to be true.

It's getting harder and harder to deny the reality of the situation, isn't it, Mircea? It was bad enough trying to deal with the thoroughly-researched and reasoned arguments of the MonteQuests of this world, but now, in just the past couple of weeks, we've been hammered with the National Petroleum Council report, The Oil Drum's devastating Import Land - Export Land Model, and the IEA's Medium-Term Oil Market Report. I don't blame you for being so scared. I am, too. We all are.

But we can't let our great fear get the best of us. We need to get tough. We need to work through the fear and denial and accept the reality that is drawing nearer every day.

Everything is going to be different, Mircea, and not in a good way. Pretending that MQ and the NPC and the IEA and the boys at TOD are all wrong is a classic exercise in futility. A great wave is about to sweep over us all. Standing on the beach and cussing it out as it approaches will serve no good purpose.
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby threadbear » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 21:34:26

Mircea--You rock!!!
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby Tyler_JC » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 21:53:05

Why can't people have rational debates and constructive discussions without resorting to name calling and hyperbole?

And why has this conversation shifted so irrevocably away from its founding post about fossil fuels as a squandered resource that should have been used to build a sustainable future?

...
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby PraiseDoom » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 22:46:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')hy can't people have rational debates and constructive discussions without resorting to name calling and hyperbole?

...


What...have you suddenly forgot where you ARE? 2 years post peak and we're ALL getting a little cranky with the enormity of the situation...or the enormity of how no one has seemed to notice.
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby Omnitir » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 22:47:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', ' ')Likewise, the oil age has not entirely been about wasting our one time gift in pursuit of a high standard of living. While that is mostly what people have cared about, it's disingenuous to assume that the spending of the oil lottery payout has been entirely a waste, when it can be argued that, like the analogy of buying a house, this spending has been a form of investment that may or may not pay off.


I see no sign of any possible energy dividend from the Squanderville investment.

That's because you, like many posters, are not interested in technology. Now I'm not saying here that you (and others) are Neo-Luddite, but I am saying that there is a clear dislike of shiny, gimicky, science-fictiony sounding technologies. These are irrelevant, right? These are merely symptoms of human hubris that fail to acknowledge that nature always bats last, right?

Perhaps, but that's besides the point. Regardless of whether one believes that any 'technofix' may ever be possible or not, the point is that a technologically sustainable future is what we have been investing our fossil energy supply into (mostly unintentionally though).

We may have only cared about the latest consumer toy, the fastest car, the coolest entertainment etc., however investing in these things has not only resulted in instant gratification, but has also resulted in progress.

For instance, in the demand for the greatest possible television technology, we advance the possibilities of solar power. In our desire for more powerful computers, we have greatly accelerated most technologies to a point where many technologies are beginning to behave and perform like information technologies - and accelerate at a similar pace.

Maybe in twenty years accelerating technology will give us our first molecular nano-factories, revolutionising all manufacturing and dropping energy demands to a minuscule amount. Or perhaps in the future solar technology may approach the point where we can capture that tiny fraction of sunlight we need to power everything.

Maybe we won't get there, maybe we will, it is besides the point. The point is, love it or hate it, this is the future we have been heavily investing our fossil wealth into. We haven't been "squandering" our energy gift, we have actually been investing in a possible sustainable future. By seeking the latest in instant gratification, we have been pushing science and technology forwards at an accelerating rate, giving us the chance to become a truly sustainable civilization through advanced technology.

And that is perhaps the most important point to note: the sustainable future that we have actually been investing in over the oil age, if achieved, will be the most sustainable possible world we could live in, lasting many orders of magnitude longer than any agrarian view of a sustainable world. We have chosen to shoot for true long-term sustainability that is only possible with radically advanced technology, rather than merely trying to make what limited resources we have on this little planet last as long as possible until nature decides to wipe us out in short order.

As MonteQuest is fond of saying “nature bats last”. The only truly long-term sustainability we can possibly have is one where our species isn’t subject to the will of nature on this tiny planet. Investing our fossil fuel gift “wisely” in living a low-tech sustainable lifestyle would have guaranteed our short term (in the geographical sense) demise at the hand of nature as she bats last. But striving for a high-tech future as we are, gives us the chance to diminish the force of the bat that nature is holding over us, perhaps even eliminate it entirely.

The fossil energy gift wasn’t squandered; it was just invested in a high risk/high gain scheme. We risk losing everything slightly quicker than if we strived for sustainability from the beginning, but we have a shot at achieving true sustainability, and perhaps outliving Mother Earth and even the stars themselves. Hardly a squandered gift.
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby Zardoz » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 23:02:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '.')..we have a shot at achieving true sustainability, and perhaps outliving Mother Earth and even the stars themselves. Hardly a squandered gift.

There you go again!

Dude, it is really hard for us to take you seriously when you make mind-bogglingly crazy statements like that. Talk about eroding your credibility. Good Lord...
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby MC2 » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 00:45:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', ' ') There are major challenges facing people, but the predominant view from many seems to be to retreat to some kind of pre-industrial age. I really suspect many here are Luddites.


No, people wish to pursue sustainability. What that level is, is not determined by anyone, but by nature.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')echnology can and will make a difference. It won't replace oil, and it shouldn't. The population will probably drop off over the next forty years or so, but that's also to be expected, as anyone who's had a basic sociology course should be able to figure out (more advanced societies gradually evolve toward zero or negative population growth).


And as I have pointed out so many times my head hurts, only because of a demographic transition fostered by the advent of fossil fuels and the comcomittant rise in the standard of living...which won't be possible post-peak to continue.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')oomerism is becoming a fundamentalist faith for many, I fear. And you wonder why you have no credibility? Stick to factual issues and open your eyes to possibilities you may not have seen, or those that may yet be developed.


And ad hominem and personal attacks seems to be the only ammo people like you can use in a feeble attempt to discredit and deny reality and the facts.

Science is not a "doomer cult" following.

You cannot debate the merits, so you resort to sand box name-calling like "doomers and Luddites."

How very professional the debate is then. :roll:


If anyone is descending to ad hominem attacks, it is you, with this post. What I've seen in this thread is primarily "straw man" arguments (taking what I and others posted out of context, applying your own conclusions, and then judging it by your standards). Doomer and Luddite are perfectly acceptable terms describing many of the positions taken on this forum by posters. It's also a take on why PO has so little credibility. When most thread have at least one or two people commenting on how soon the SHTF so they can start taking out their neighbors, well, obviously something's wrong.

Let's go back in the thread and see where this jumped the track.
Next post...
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby MC2 » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 00:47:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', 'E')xcellent point mmasters. TPTB were never interested in sustainability because it denies their foundation. Another realization I mentioned before is that everyone including TPTB do not have free will, neither individually or collectively. Their culture prevents a humanistic policy towards the common man.

I'm sure the average person if given a different history with opportunity for sustainable living, would all choose it over what we have today. If it meant sacrificing the cultural achievements of the past 50 years, which in humble and honest opinion is the pinnacle of all of western history, I wouldn't have wanted it any other way. Its a selfish thought, but at the same time I'm fully aware I'm very much susceptible to the die-off. We were born into this society and instead of fighting fate, its healthier to find the beauty it created, even with the little time left of civilization.


I see the beauty, and I like riding around in a car. I also know that it won't last. We are going to have to change or die. Adapt or perish. Now is the time to make the changes you need to in order to survive. You can get a great bug out spot together someplace now. Visit a place a hundred miles from where you are now. Get to know it. You may have to live there.

There is an alternative. We use half the fossil fuel we did 5 years ago. We save $2655 every year. We could use even less. We live the same lifestyle we did, with half the energy.

If the export land model is right, we'll be down to less than half of what we use now in about 12 and a half years. Everybody else will have to join us, but we are already there. There is a huge unexploited resource out there. It comes up every morning. 100 watts per square meter. All you have to do is put up something to catch it. Trees do it. Check out our solar car. It weighs half the weight of a golf cart. With full panels it can make all it's own energy. It goes 25 mph and gets infinity miles per gallon:

www.sunnev.com


Good post. We have to have an energy revolution, based on decentralization of supply to the end-users (us), that effectively decouples most people from the "grid." This has been possible for many years, the technology is there, but there's been no incentive due to the continued availability of inexpensive energy sources from centralized marketers. They, of course, have resisted the move toward decentralization of energy supply. All that must change as we enter PO. Yes, it's a liquid fuels crisis, at present, but the technology is most definitely there to ameliorate that crisis through electric assist technology, and, in the not distant future, to virtually eliminate the need for large quantities of liquid fuels from centralized production and storage for end users (yes, there will continue to be a need for mass transportation). Of course, as long as huge profits are still there for corporations, resistance will continue. It's only when there is no alternative but to decentralize the energy cycle that it will happen. That day is coming. There is a lot of reason for optimism, but the world is going to have to change, and that will be painful. But it's not a "back to the 18th century" scenario. It's moving forward to a 21st century scenario.


Let's see, this is where I entered the thread - a positive post backing up what I take as an excellent post, amplifying my position, and establishing a counter-point to some of the blatant doomerism.
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby MC2 » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 00:50:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', ' ') Yes, it's a liquid fuels crisis, at present, but the technology is most definitely there to ameliorate that crisis through electric assist technology, and, in the not distant future, to virtually eliminate the need for large quantities of liquid fuels from centralized production and storage for end users (yes, there will continue to be a need for mass transportation).


See what I mean? We want a fix.


Then, we have this little dilly of a post. Entirely dismissive, and not even addressing my main points. Who said anything about fixing anything? This is a classic "straw man" argument. (If you don't know that that is, google it and learn about the underhanded tactic.)
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby MC2 » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 00:51:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')See what I mean? We want a fix.


MQ,

I don't think most people do see. That is such an abstract construct for them it is simply not possible.

Hope is not a plan, yet most (all?) views of the future being essentially like today only better are based on the hope of unrealized technological breakthroughs that apparently are conjured out of thin air.


Yes, let's call it the Technology Paradox. The effect is the opposite of what we hope for.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t the same time, we are suggesting making matters worse with talk of electric cars and other techno-fixes to perpetuate an unsustainable lifestyle…a pure construct of overshoot via fossil fuels.


Then, we had this little piling on and amen chorus action, again taking the mutilated and straw-manned revisionist quote of the original take I had....
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby MC2 » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 00:56:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', ' ') Yes, it's a liquid fuels crisis, at present, but the technology is most definitely there to ameliorate that crisis through electric assist technology, and, in the not distant future, to virtually eliminate the need for large quantities of liquid fuels from centralized production and storage for end users (yes, there will continue to be a need for mass transportation).


See what I mean? We want a fix.


MQ,

I don't think most people do see. That is such an abstract construct for them it is simply not possible.

Hope is not a plan, yet most (all?) views of the future being essentially like today only better are based on the hope of unrealized technological breakthroughs that apparently are conjured out of thin air.


No, only the doomers see it. People like Bucky Fuller (who said we have the means to solve our energy problems and increase our sustainability to double the earth's population, not that I'd want to be that crowded) have no vision. None at all. There are major challenges facing people, but the predominant view from many seems to be to retreat to some kind of pre-industrial age. I really suspect many here are Luddites.

Technology can and will make a difference. It won't replace oil, and it shouldn't. The population will probably drop off over the next forty years or so, but that's also to be expected, as anyone who's had a basic sociology course should be able to figure out (more advanced societies gradually evolve toward zero or negative population growth).

Some of you need to read more widely. The scales may fall from your eyes. Doomerism is becoming a fundamentalist faith for many, I fear. And you wonder why you have no credibility? Stick to factual issues and open your eyes to possibilities you may not have seen, or those that may yet be developed. I've got news for you: you're all going to die. Don't externalize your stress with that factoid into all this doomerism for the world. It WILL go on without us! :)


That brought this post in reply, which I hoped would point out some of the inherent weaknesses in taking such a doomerist view on everything associated with the topics covered here. There is (should be) room for more than one lock-step view, and there should be a degree of intellectual honesty in the dialogue here, which record is so easily manipulated by nefarious tactics that wouldn't even be allowed on the high school debate team.

Methinks we have a budding cult of personality. Let's all take a deep breath and try to have a little forbearance for viewpoints others may have. Might learn something.
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby Omnitir » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 01:31:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '.')..we have a shot at achieving true sustainability, and perhaps outliving Mother Earth and even the stars themselves. Hardly a squandered gift.

There you go again!

Dude, it is really hard for us to take you seriously when you make mind-bogglingly crazy statements like that. Talk about eroding your credibility. Good Lord...

I'm pro technology. Do you really think I expect anyone on this board to take me seriously?

Just trying to put into perspective the potential level of gain in the high risk/high gain scheme that we've invested in. If we succeeded in MQ's version of sustainability, we live with nature but last only slightly longer than if the world ends tomorrow. But if we succeed with the current plan, and achieve high-tech sustainability, we spread throughout the stars and, comparatively, live forever.

If we were to find a "technofix" to all our problems, would spreading out into space really be such a preposterous step further to take? Regardless of how star-treky it sounds, the fact remains that developing high technology and spreading out into space is the ONLY way we can survive long term. Anything else guarantees our short-term extinction. That's reality, regardless of how ridiculous a notion it seems.
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby Omnitir » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 01:43:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '.')..we have a shot at achieving true sustainability, and perhaps outliving Mother Earth and even the stars themselves. Hardly a squandered gift.

There you go again!

Dude, it is really hard for us to take you seriously when you make mind-bogglingly crazy statements like that. Talk about eroding your credibility. Good Lord...

And also, if I responded in likeness every time I read a "mind-bogglingly crazy statement" like I read every time I visit, I would have tens of thousands of posts dismissing almost every argument on this board as crazy and questioning the authors credibility.

I mean seriously, consdier your reation to my high-tech scenario. Well that's a perfectly normal reaction when one reads about how it's selfish to NOT want billions of people to die, or any other number of absurd concepts that are considered normal here.

But instead of the ad hominems like this post in response to your ad hominem, I try to respond to the actual arguments being made. Care to do the same?

What is it about my theory that we have invested our oil wealth in a techno-future that you disagree with?
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby Ibon » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 02:01:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', ' ')the fact remains that developing high technology and spreading out into space is the ONLY way we can survive long term. Anything else guarantees our short-term extinction. That's reality, regardless of how ridiculous a notion it seems.


I’ll entertain your fantasy.

Developing high technology while living within ecological limits could create a world where the very idea of spreading into space would be viewed as a complete absurdity. What possible habitat would we search for that could match the adaptability we have as humans on our own planet? How could such a vision compete with living in a sustainable way in our own home world?

Surely a big part of your vision of spreading into space is because you acknowledge that our planet will be degraded due to our own actions and not some inherent ecological instability. There is no evidence of any long term threat with our species or planet if we master sustainability.

I would say that any species intelligent enough to expand into space would be one that learned to master ecological sustainability on his own planet and not leave behind a toilet.

Would you like to be visited here on earth by an alien that left a toilet behind in his home world?
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby Judgie » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 02:24:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'w')e spread throughout the stars and, comparatively, live forever.

If we were to find a "technofix" to all our problems, would spreading out into space really be such a preposterous step further to take? Regardless of how star-treky it sounds, the fact remains that developing high technology and spreading out into space is the ONLY way we can survive long term. Anything else guarantees our short-term extinction. That's reality, regardless of how ridiculous a notion it seems.


Eventually our descendants would have to deal with the possible problem of having consumed everything that there is to consume. Assuming that

(1) The universe is finite. We actually don't know if it is either finite or infinite yet.

(2)
Our race survives that long.

Surely it would be selfish of you not to consider their possible fate??? Don't say it's too far down the track, they'll be human too, no matter the changes that evolution will bring upon them.

I too like you would love to see the human race spread out into the stars, why stay here on this little blue rock when there is so much to see out there?

Oh, it doesn't bring short term profits to our investors...... sorry, my mistake.......

The only chance you'll have of seeing that happen is if you can convince the energy and resource companies that it would be worth their while to invest in planetary mining in our solar system. to begin with, when TSHTF. That might be too late, but by some stroke-of-luck, it might not. The scientists may have the tech, and the engineers the means, but it is the bean-counters and exec's who'll say yay or nay. If we expand into space, as we both wish, it'll be 10% morality, ethics and love for your 5.9 billion fellow chimps driven (let's face it, the rich don't care if you're alive or dead) and 90% economics and survival of the fittest driven. It won't be to preserve your status-quo, it'll be to preserve theirs and you will be part of the means through which they achieve that.
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby Ibon » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 03:07:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'R')ather than realize his lifestyle was unsustainable, he instead tries to find ways to continue it, robbing Peter to pay Paul, loans, robbery, etc.

A prudent society would have invested in renewable sustainable systems long ago.


Back to Monte’s original post.

A prudent species would have achieved prudence by learning the same way we will have to learn. Through burning our fingers with the gluttony and indulgence of our wasteful ways. I like the analogy of the lottery. Discovering fossil fuels was like winning the lottery and it was like throwing 100 million dollars on the lap of someone not really mature enough to understand what he was given and how to manage it.

So we do have to cut our species some slack. We are doing the same probably that any other species would do in being the first clumsy example of a species that became sentient, manipulated their environment and then tried to control predators, disease and prevent starvation.

Living within ecological limits and preserving diversity with balance on our planet is not inherently in contradiction with developing high technologies. It is not technology that is the source of our being unsustainable but rather our hubris that we can live outside the constraints of nature. That we can take from our planet resources at the expense of other species and the systems like global climate that sustains all life.

We can return to living within natural limits as did our ancestors without having to return to their level of primitive technology. Technology will be a necessary component to any sustainable modern culture but only within a new paradigm of reduced consumption and living within ecological limits.

We are very close to the point where our fingers will be scorched. Very close. If we weren’t wearing these thick gloves of denial we would have already been feeling the heat like many of us allready do as individuals. But it is upon us collectively.

We are too close to gaining mass consensus on this issue to lose hope. Everyday more and more people are recognizing the ecological peril of our times. Continuing to tenaciously chip away, one person at a time, at educating people, is what we have to do.

I don’t worry too much about those still in denial or those deluded into believing we can solve this problem with technology alone. Events are coming sooner than we think that will either kill us off or rally our resolve to evolve toward sustainability.

There is a common sense akin to not shitting in your own well that we will soon be forced to acknowledge.

I remain optimistic that an imperfect belated mitigation will take place as our modern culture falls under the grip of the consequences we have brought upon us.

Just a little bit longer is all we have to wait. But in the meantime hammer and chisels still remain our best tools.

It may take still another 10,000 posts Montequest!
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby Zardoz » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 03:27:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '.')..What is it about my theory that we have invested our oil wealth in a techno-future that you disagree with?

Over the last couple of years I've come to the conclusion that it is technology itself that will destroy us. It is becoming increasingly apparent that there is simply no way possible to reconcile the inevitably destructive effects of technology with the fragile biosphere of this planet.

As I've said before, we homo sapiens existed for about 200,000 years without doing any significant damage to the ecosystems that sustain us. We got up to a population of something like 700 million without doing any irreparable harm to the biosphere, right up until the beginnings of the Industrial Revolution.

Since then, in that miniscule little eyeblink of time, the technology we have developed has created chaos and destruction on a scale that rivals the great extinctions of the past. The effects of technology are so profoundly destructive they have induced the Sixth Extinction and have the potential of eventually threatening our very existence. We could well go the way of the thousands of species we have exterminated so far.

You are deluding yourself if you deny that it is technology itself which is the root cause of the destruction that is ongoing, and accelerating even now.

I see no evidence that we can mitigate our way out of this. The effects of technology on the health of the biosphere is so toxic that the planet may be able to tolerate virtually none of it. Since we are incapable of giving up on modern technology and returning to the ways of the past, I see no future scenario that is anything but grim.

Forget your grandiose dreams of proving Einstein wrong, conquering the vast distances of space, and carrying our toxic culture to some so-far-undiscovered habitable planet tens of thousands of light-years away. We'll be lucky have a tiny remnant surviving population left two or three centuries from now.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby return1880s » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 04:08:24

Very good read, everyone!

I want to say again that we will be returning to technology of the 1880s. One that is much less toxic and pollutes very little.

The laws of nature and biology dictate carrying capacity. We will have a mass die off due to peak food, peak medicine, etc.
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Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 04:12:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')We are too close to gaining mass consensus on this issue to lose hope. Everyday more and more people are recognizing the ecological peril of our times. Continuing to tenaciously chip away, one person at a time, at educating people, is what we have to do.

We will not achieve this mass consensus, as you are suggesting above.
Those who have meaningful interest in ecology are tiny proportion of humanity.
We will try to mitigate our situation by means of conservation and technofixes.
All our efforts will go towards switching to electric cars and building more nuclear or solar power plants to support status quo.
In any case from individual point of viev, or from perspective of current generation it is a reasonable thing to do.
Noone cares what will happen after s/he dies. Dead people are feeling nothing and nothing bothers them.
Policy makers know it very well...
Any democratic society will vote for prosperity, not for transition to some imaginary setups requiring hard choices.
On the other hand any authoritarian society will seek military solutions to PO, GW etc.
You are totally deluded if you think otherwise.

Efforts to conserve will deliver an illusion that something can be achieved and we will learn every week that some miraculous technofixes which will solve all our problems are just behind a corner.
And they will be all advertised as green (I hope, you are noticing that...).
So we will carry on our relentless race to the bottom. No hope to change that.

Any comments on above?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don’t worry too much about those still in denial or those deluded into believing we can solve this problem with technology alone. Events are coming sooner than we think that will either kill us off or rally our resolve to evolve toward sustainability.

So you are ignoring 95-99% of population...
It is very unlikely that we will go extinct in short term, as you suggest, neither we will convert to sustainable paradigm.
We will just fall into miserable, conflicted mess with no hope to find a way out of that.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is a common sense akin to not shitting in your own well that we will soon be forced to acknowledge.

Correct, we don't shit into our well, but many of us are pissing into swimming pool :-D
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