[MonteQuest]

This is my 10,000th post on peakoil.com. Over the last 3 years, I have read and written much. The overwhelmingly constant theme I read, is one that focuses on the same short-term thinking that brought us here; addressing the symptoms rather than the causes.

Let me illustrate this with an analogy.

Suppose you found a bag of money or won the lottery. What would you do? A prudent and wise person would invest the money and set his lifestyle to meet the income from his investments. Sure, he might spend some to enhance his current lifestyle, but only a fool would squander it like there was no tomorrow and that the money would never end.

The fool would spend it maintaining an unsustainable lifestyle until he was down to a few bucks, then spend the few remaining dollars either on more lottery tickets or some pie-in-the-sky investment, hoping for a quick return or another windfall.

Rather than realize his lifestyle was unsustainable, he instead tries to find ways to continue it, robbing Peter to pay Paul, loans, robbery, etc.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xpecting some other energy resource to provide energy on the same scale and level of concentration as petroleum, just because we happen to want one, is a little like responding to one huge lottery win by assuming that when that money starts running out, another equally large win can be had for the cost of a few more tickets. This is close enough to today’s consumer psychology that it’s easy to imagine somebody in this position pouring all the money he has left into lottery tickets, and throwing away his chances of avoiding bankruptcy because the only solution he can imagine is winning the lottery again.

[I_Like_Plants]

Genius as always Monte.

I know I am as guity as anyone - looking back over my life, even though my earnings have been below average, if I'd managed what I had carefully, just rationally, I'd be rather wealthy now. But did I do that? No, I've acted like some ape who expects everything to grow on trees. As Ran Prieur says in his essay on dropping out, we have millions of years of evolution behind us as animals who had everything they needed grow from trees - it's nowadays that people have to learn to work with money. Most of us are better off on a "short leash" where we can't get into trouble, but the oil party has been the opposite of that.

Yeah, we're screwed.

[Roccland]

"It seems that Peak Oil escapes most people's comprehension. Either it is too technical or too much like a conspiracy theory in their minds. The "that can't be true" reflex is very strong, especially among the "educated", who consider themselves too smart to have missed something that big, too important to be upstaged by amateurs, too intellectual and noble to delve into such distasteful topics, too abstract and sensitive to bother with concrete things like numbers, oil, technical stuff, etc"

Joe Gathman at ERT

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '
')
"It seems that Peak Oil escapes most people's comprehension. The "that can't be true" reflex is very strong, especially among the "educated", who consider themselves too smart to have missed something that big . . ."

Joe Gathman at ERT

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')We choose to be selfish, rather than learn to share.
...
Get very prepared for a war footing.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
What ever happened to critical thinking?

[Revi]

Rationality isn't the reason most people do things. They just do what their neighbors do. If their neighbors go out and get a new car, they do too. Humans aren't that smart. We just think we are. The herd has been on this fossil fuel kick for quite a while now. They won't like what follows in a few years. Most people can't afford to drive around in the cars they are in now. They can't afford the light bill. They need to start conserving, but have no idea what to do. Here's what we have done:

http://www.msad54.org/sahs/appliedarts/ ... /index.htm

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', 'b')ut anyone capable of stuff worth being paid for nowadays is out doing it, particularly in the energy generation / energy conservation end of things.

[mmasters]

How much can you blame people for not knowing themselves that are being taken advantage of by way of a collectivist influence originating from those who do understand human nature? Do you think the sheep are being led to slaughter unintentionally, that this really could have been avoided? I'm not so sure myself. I'm also not so sure that this is entirely rooted in incompetance and greed. In any case, at this point, can any one person or small group of individuals make much of a difference for the direction of where things are headed? I don't think so.

[mark]

Thank God I learned of peak oil when I did; waiting more than a few years would have been torture.

I share Monte’s big picture view of what we’ve done but I think I’ve carried it just a bit further. It’s not just that peak oil is a symptom; most of us here understand that, but a symptom of what? Uncritical thinking? Hubirs? All that of course, but there’s more.

We have come as far as we can dependant on our own mind. Even the techies know that so they propose bonding with silicone. But that’s not the way things will work out. We will bond of course; it’s the only way we’ll survive. How long it takes us to figure it out will determine how many of us are left.

Based on history, I’m betting about half a billion.

[jupiters_release]

Excellent point mmasters. TPTB were never interested in sustainability because it denies their foundation. Another realization I mentioned before is that everyone including TPTB do not have free will, neither individually or collectively. Their culture prevents a humanistic policy towards the common man.

I'm sure the average person if given a different history with opportunity for sustainable living, would all choose it over what we have today. If it meant sacrificing the cultural achievements of the past 50 years, which in humble and honest opinion is the pinnacle of all of western history, I wouldn't have wanted it any other way. Its a selfish thought, but at the same time I'm fully aware I'm very much susceptible to the die-off. We were born into this society and instead of fighting fate, its healthier to find the beauty it created, even with the little time left of civilization.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')We choose to be selfish, rather than learn to share.
...
Get very prepared for a war footing.

[SILENTTODD]

MonteQuest, you're the one person who's posts I always read because I find I have to agree with your analysis 100%.

But you know what? There's a part of me that welcomes Peak Oil. I hate my Job. I always wanted to be a Farmer. Now I will be!

[Russian_Cowboy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'L')et me illustrate this with an analogy. Suppose you found a bag of money or won the lottery.

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', 'E')xcellent point mmasters. TPTB were never interested in sustainability because it denies their foundation. Another realization I mentioned before is that everyone including TPTB do not have free will, neither individually or collectively. Their culture prevents a humanistic policy towards the common man.

I'm sure the average person if given a different history with opportunity for sustainable living, would all choose it over what we have today. If it meant sacrificing the cultural achievements of the past 50 years, which in humble and honest opinion is the pinnacle of all of western history, I wouldn't have wanted it any other way. Its a selfish thought, but at the same time I'm fully aware I'm very much susceptible to the die-off. We were born into this society and instead of fighting fate, its healthier to find the beauty it created, even with the little time left of civilization.

[evilgenius]

Revi,

You forgot to include the picture of the blackout curtains that will be vital to prevent the masses from knowing about your setup.

[Revi]

"The masses" will have to be with us. We don't live in a fancy house or anything. We will have to make it together. We might have to blockade the town against outsiders, but we live in a small town in the middle of nowhere. Most people won't make it this far. What I hope is that people will see that average people can prepare for what's coming and start to do something. We are just doing it now, before the price of energy makes it necessary. You can do this too. It all cost much less than the price of a used SUV, and it saves us money. We save over $2500 per year from the changes we've made, and use half the fossil fuel (and make half the carbon dioxide).

[Omnitir]

Monte's analogy is flawed. The oil age was not the same as spending an entire lottery win on a high lifestyle without planning for the future. It was more like spending it on a high lifestyle by purchasing a nice big house on a nice bit of land, and enjoying having such a high living standard. One outside observer might detest the foolishness of this lottery winner in spending all of that money on a property instead of investing it all in shares, which is what this observer considers to be the only smart investment. Though another observer might point out that investing in property itself is a smart investment, one which will pay for itself in due time.

While the lottery winner in my analogy may only care about his high standard of living, it's disingenuous to argue that we has wasted his money when clearly his spending is a form of investment that may or may not pay off down the track.

Likewise, the oil age has not entirely been about wasting our one time gift in pursuit of a high standard of living. While that is mostly what people have cared about, it's disingenuous to assume that the spending of the oil lottery payout has been entirely a waste, when it can be argued that, like the analogy of buying a house, this spending has been a form of investment that may or may not pay off.

We haven't spent all of the riches of the oil age with no investment for the future. We have just invested in a future that most people on this board can't accept as being possible or 'reality'. In spending our winnings of the oil lottery, we have been investing in a technological future. It's a future that may or may not payoff, but it is however still a preparation for the future.

[Omnitir]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Russian_Cowboy', ' ')The end result has even been quantified and plotted by Jonathan Huebner: http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/starkey/2 ... uebner.pdf . Our rate of innovation now is the same as in 1600AD and maybe even lower. We as humans were not aware of the peak science 150 years ago and that the Peak Oil and related challenges are coming now with a 150 year long lag.

[NugBlazer]

A very well-written, well thought out post as always, Monte. I'm surprised Saavinaar didn't incorporate you into "A Crude Awakening" somehow. BTW, congrats on your 10,000th post. That's quite a milestone.

As for your post itself, the gist of it is basically: "we're screwed". And you're right, though I desperately wish you were wrong. It's goddamn depressing.

Sometimes I wonder if Hedonism is the way to go. After years of trying to enlighten people about Peak Oil, and hoping that humanity will do the right thing and begin to powerdown and plan for the future, I've realized that it just isn't gonna happen. We will not begin to change until it's waaaaaay too late, as is often human nature. In short: we're screwed, as you already pointed out.

So, I ask, if we're pretty much screwed, then why not just go out with a bang? It's horrible thinking, I know, but honestly, does it really matter? I'm begining to think it doesn't.