[Ferretlover]

Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50: poll Wed Jul 18, 2007 By Rebekah Kebede
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Some 40 percent of Americans would curb their driving habits if retail gasoline prices shot up to $3.50 a gallon, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.
Surging energy costs have already forced many Americans to consider cutting back on travel, retail, and entertainment spending to ease sticker shock at the pump, according to the poll of 524 people across the country. … "It's so hard to read what consumer behavior is going to be at higher price points -- be that $3.50 per gallon or $4 per gallon -- because we're all in uncharted territory," said Geoff Sundstrom, a spokesperson for AAA.
Price thresholds for cutting time on the road varied, with about 19 percent of participants responding they would cut back at $4 per gallon. Another 9 percent said it would take $4.50, while 7 percent said prices would have to reach $5 a gallon before they would scale back. Some 19 percent indicated that they could not cut their road travel no matter how high prices climb.
Entire article at: http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersE ... 8220070718

[Bas]

While I think the sales of SUV's might plummet yet again, I don't think Americans would drive less. They might for a little while but once they get used to the new price psychologically they forget what they said on a poll like this.

[WisJim]

I don't think it would make any more difference than $3 a gallon gasoline did. The price of gas would have to go up a LOT, and at one time, to make people slow down in purchasing/using gas, and then they would get used to it again, and consumption would increase. $5 a gallon might slow people down for a bit, for a while, but I think it would have to be an almost overnight increase. A real noticable decrease in supply, requiring rationing or making it hard to find a station that has a supply of gas, would make a bigger difference.

People in the USA are going to keep driving their gas hogs no matter what.

[Lore]

As long as we "slowly boil the frog" the public won't panic. Not at least until disposable income is used up and wages and jobs fall.

The effect of continued consumption at higher prices will be felt by other goods and services first.

[DoubleD]

Well... for many weeks this spring we were at $3.47/gallon for regular unleaded in our local area - and it sure did not stop people from buying and driving. They bitched about it - but they kept on keeping on.

There may be modest adjustments to use but short lived I think.

[Nickel]

I don’t think $3.50’s going to make a bit of difference either. In Canada, the price has been up and down over a dollar a litre for a couple of years now… that’s over $4 a gallon… and it hasn’t made much difference that I can see. I still see SUVs and “mini” vans and sports cars and even Hummers. Those things make me angry. We all have to get around, but there are some ways that make more sense than others. Driving an SUV or one of those other monstrosities simply because you can afford to (for the moment) strikes me as showing all the regard for your grandchildren as sending them to bed in a room full of scorpions, tra-la, sleep tight…

[frankthetank]

No they wouldn't! If they lost their jobs and credit cards, then maybe.

[eastbay]

This isn't exactly 'Current News'.

But I'm with Frank.

If $7.00 /gallon gas doesn't prevent the freeways in UK from being constantly jammed up with traffic, I doubt if $3.50 /gallon gas (or even $7.00 /gallon, for that matter) will prevent North Americans from significantly altering their driving habits. US and Canadian drivers may over time switch to smaller vehicles but the amount of driving won't be seriously impacted until the cost gets really high... like over $10.00 /gallon.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')With each passing year, we're experiencing new highs," said Sundstrom. But he added, "We've not had a climate where large numbers of Americans are fearing for their economic future."

[Windmills]

As prices rise, people will adjust in the manners and speeds that they are able. Discretionary driving, spending on, as was mentioned, retail, entertainment, and travel will be sacrificed first. Those changes can be made quickly. Other changes, like buying a vehicle with better fuel economy and living closer to work are examples of changes that will happen slowly for most. Most people won't cut much on driving because they can't. People often live far from work and there are few substitutes for the daily commute. Many places don't have light rail, buses, subways, or other forms of mass transit. Commutes may be too far to make bicycling or walking practical. Gas prices will have to get higher and stay higher (I'm sure they will) for people to slowly make the move away from the car.

Fuel takes up about 7% of our net income. If all other prices didn't also rise with it, gas could double without affecting our budget much. Beyond that, we'd have to start making cuts everywhere we could.

Rather than taking polls, it might be more useful for these reporters to try to do a bit of math or research and discover what might be a tipping point for serious behavior change in terms of percentage of net income spent on fuel. When entire paychecks begin to disappear to fuel, when all discretionary spending is gone, when standards of living begin to decline, when industries begin to falter or fail, when a spouse quits a job because it's cheaper to stay home, when people begin to lose their jobs, these things might wake people up.

[vision-master]

$3.00 gal has already had a impact on me. Mainly, it's I'm not gonna squander my moola on fuel just to drive around with all the other road ragers.

[Boris555]

$3.00 was my break-point.

at $3/gal I bought a used convertible to commute in rather than my truck. Gets about 70% better mileage than the truck, so I save about $30/week. The savings only covers half the car payment, but it's a hell of a lot more fun to drive. And I still have the truck for the farm.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'T')his isn't exactly 'Current News'.

But I'm with Frank.

If $7.00 /gallon gas doesn't prevent the freeways in UK from being constantly jammed up with traffic, I doubt if $3.50 /gallon gas (or even $7.00 /gallon, for that matter) will prevent North Americans from significantly altering their driving habits.

[MC2]

I don't think 3.50 will make a dent in our use. It's already been close to that several times, and no one out here slowed down their use in any visible way.

I think it will take well over 5.00 to make much difference in either how much or what people drive.

[wxman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', 'I') don't think 3.50 will make a dent in our use. It's already been close to that several times, and no one out here slowed down their use in any visible way.

I think it will take well over 5.00 to make much difference in either how much or what people drive.

[eastbay]

Without a doubt Emersonbiggins, for the poor, every increase in gas reduces their driving. For the wealthy, oil price will have no impact on driving.

Now, for the rest of us in the middle, as gas increases to $5.00/ gallon, then to $10.00/ gallon, I believe North Americans can mostly switch to more fuel efficient personal transport or take other measures to reduce the personal impact of higher gasoline prices. We can, over time, trade in our obnoxious trucks, SUV's, or minivans for one of the many more fuel-efficient cars available and still continue fairly 'normal' driving patterns.

For example, I now generally use my bicycle or the 90 mpg scooter for all local errands. But I still have a 40+ mpg Civic for carrying the family or when it rains too hard. (dang it, I just spilled a spoonful of milk and cereal on my keyboard...) This will carry us through the coming $10.00/ gallon gas without altering our driving patterns. Now $20.00/ gallon gas might be another matter entirely... we'll probably rely more on the bicycles when that time comes.

Well, one thing is 100% certain: we'll all find out soon enough.

[Windmills]

A tricky part of the problem of determining a gasoline tipping point in behavior is the fact that the price of other goods and services will be rising along with the price of gasoline. My girlfriend and I could handle $10/gal, but only if the price of all the other inputs to our household changed relatively little as gasoline rose, which I don't see as realistic.

[Minvaren]

I think we're going to see the $5/gallon test sooner than we would like. My guess? Noone's going to drive less, but we may see fewer sales of the largest gas-guzzlers.

$5 will be a psychological barrier. In my opinion $8-$10 is where demand destruction will strike, as filling up even an econobox crosses the $100 barrier.

(off-topic : had a discussion with a co-worker Friday who told me about how he "needed" the largest Ford SUV due to a family of 4 and a dog...)

[WisJim]

I've been thinking about this a lot in the past months. I remember being horrified when I could finally put $5 worth of gas in the tank of my VW beetle (original rear engined air cooled version), and I think that was a 10 gallon tank, so I was probably paying 60cents a gallon or so at that point. Of course, when I pay $30 to put some gas in cans so I can run the tractor and rototiller, etc., it seems like a lot of money, but then I think about how much time I am saving by running those engines with that gas, and it doesn't seem so bad. And $30 worth of gas (2 five gallon cans almost filled) lasts me most of the spring and summer.

We consciously chose to live where we do, when we moved 18 years ago, so that we were within walking or biking distance of work, library, and most stores in the town.

If gas were $10 a gallon, we wouldn't mow as much (much of what we mow now is for mulch on the orchard and gardens), and I would be riding my bicycle more, but we would probably still drive those few times a year when we go 100 miles or more to visit relatives or go the the Energy Fair, for example. I'd be a bit more careful to drive slower, to get the 50 to 55mpg that our car is capable of, but it wouldn't make a real big difference to us, since we don't buy much that is new, and grow most of our own food.

[I_Like_Plants]

$3.50? Better put a 10 in front of that - $13.50, about 2X what gas is in Europe.

In Europe, people are driving as much as they possibly can.