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Americans would hit brakes if gas price hits $3.50

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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby veliger » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 11:58:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'O')h, I got it. Veliger is a white-collar who has "late work nights at the office" with an office skank or three. Sometimes they don't finish up until 1 AM, long after the last train has left and, if he didn't drive in earlier that day, poor Veliger is forced to stay overnight at his desk. I can see where that would be a bother, yes. :roll: :o

Seriously, though, who has a work schedule (or "range of hours," or "awake time", etc., whatever sounds least socialist to you) that a good mass transit system wouldn't meet?

(oh, and Veliger, if any of this "late night" lasciviousness is true, then you, sir, are my hero!)


Man I wish I stayed late to do something fun like you postulate above. One office skank would be a dream come true, but 3 is beyond even my vivid imagination.

My work start time only occasionally varies, but when it does for meetings and such, it does so by an hour or two.

My work end time varies regularly from about 4:30 PM to 7:30 PM depending on workload and how much I have been or will be traveling on business.

I live in Western Maine; the population density here is far too low for mass transit to ever be efficient and convenient here.

Mass transit and car pooling take away freedom, that's why most American aren't interested. If you aren't from the USA, I'm not sure you can fully understand how ingrained the automobile and the real and perceived freedom it brings are into the American culture.

Emerson, your ID Photo is great. I'm hoping the dog-owner is handicapped, but I bet he/she is just beyond lazy.
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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby jdmartin » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 12:04:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('veliger', '
')
Man I wish I stayed late to do something fun like you postulate above. One office skank would be a dream come true, but 3 is beyond even my vivid imagination.

My work start time only occasionally varies, but when it does for meetings and such, it does so by an hour or two.

My work end time varies regularly from about 4:30 PM to 7:30 PM depending on workload and how much I have been or will be traveling on business.

I live in Western Maine; the population density here is far too low for mass transit to ever be efficient and convenient here.

Mass transit and car pooling take away freedom, that's why most American aren't interested. If you aren't from the USA, I'm not sure you can fully understand how ingrained the automobile and the real and perceived freedom it brings are into the American culture.

Emerson, your ID Photo is great. I'm hoping the dog-owner is handicapped, but I bet he/she is just beyond lazy.


Western Maine is way too sparsely populated for mass transit to work well there as a daily way of getting around, I agree. Though I could see a once-a-week train running twice a day at central points. Or as it passed through the area on its way somewhere else.

And the car is absolutely ingrained into us here in the US - that's more or less why we're SOL. It wouldn't be so bad if it wasn't so necessary for every minute facet of life, and it didn't used to be that way, up until the late 50's/early 60's. Even heavy rural areas people only went to town once/twice a week/month - anyone living in those areas was working for themselves on the farm, not commuting 2 hours to Boston.
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby emersonbiggins » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 12:16:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('veliger', 'I') live in Western Maine; the population density here is far too low for mass transit to ever be efficient and convenient here.


Agreed, you live under a different set of circumstances than do most Americans. If you happen to work in a region, rather than one small town, walking would even be out of the question.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('veliger', 'M')ass transit and car pooling take away freedom, that's why most American aren't interested. If you aren't from the USA, I'm not sure you can fully understand how ingrained the automobile and the real and perceived freedom it brings are into the American culture.


I associate the freedom of an automobile (I own one myself) with the ability to take up and leave to go do WHAT I want WHEN I want. This, however, doesn't square with 90% of my driving habits, which are to drive to/from the same workplace, Monday through Friday, day-after-day, year-after-year. This is the exact opposite of that aforementioned freedom: general schedules that need to be met, routes that must be followed, being stuck in traffic congestion and copious amounts of smog, etc. This is where mass transit offers the ideal solution, and allows you more personal time to get work done (WiFi on the train, for instance). Removing inane, repetitive, irritating tasks such as car-commuting in exchange for living in a vibrant city and having more free time equates with my notion of "freedom", IMHO.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('veliger', 'E')merson, your ID Photo is great. I'm hoping the dog-owner is handicapped, but I bet he/she is just beyond lazy.


I've been thinking about changing it, but I'm glad to see it's still generating comments. :-D
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

George Carlin
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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby jdmartin » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 13:18:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '
')
I've been thinking about changing it, but I'm glad to see it's still generating comments. :-D


Don't do it - I look for that picture every time I see your name on a post :-D
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby NotMyBlood » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 16:10:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I associate the freedom of an automobile (I own one myself) with the ability to take up and leave to go do WHAT I want WHEN I want. This, however, doesn't square with 90% of my driving habits, which are to drive to/from the same workplace, Monday through Friday, day-after-day, year-after-year. This is the exact opposite of that aforementioned freedom: general schedules that need to be met, routes that must be followed, being stuck in traffic congestion and copious amounts of smog, etc. This is where mass transit offers the ideal solution, and allows you more personal time to get work done (WiFi on the train, for instance). Removing inane, repetitive, irritating tasks such as car-commuting in exchange for living in a vibrant city and having more free time equates with my notion of "freedom", IMHO.


Couldn't agree more. That feeling of freedom at the age of 17 when I bought my first car has long been replaced with a feeling of entrapment. Even as a young adult , having a nice car and driving for the most part was a pleasant experience. "A nice sunday drive". Maybe a drive into the country or a trip to the beach. It was an adventure, enjoyable. Now , there is so much congestion, I dont do any of that anymore. It sucks. Now, those trips to the beach become a test of endurance. I just want to freaking relax. You can't do that anymore, hell you can't even speed anymore because A) too many cars on the road and 2) its 3k dollar fine in Virginia now. 3K if caught going 20 mph over the posted limit. 3K!!!
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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby emersonbiggins » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 16:16:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NotMyBlood', ')') its 3k dollar fine in Virginia now. 3K if caught going 20 mph over the posted limit. 3K!!!


Wow! That's insane! 8O
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby NotMyBlood » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 16:31:48

Yeah, 3k. I think there is a growing oppostion starting to organize and fight the law, but yeah, 3k. But, once I think about it, maybe I'm just getting old. Im used to one thing, that has changed for me.

Do 20-25 year olds still enjoy taking "road trips". I bet they do :):):)

Its all relative. I always thought the desire for "personal space" as being a basic human instinct. But, I wonder if groups like the Chinese in heavily populated areas have lost that instinct ? Or doe they just realize they have to deal with it?
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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby Heading_for_the_hills » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 16:34:36

It is INSANE- I live in VA!!! I had a friend who got a speeding ticket going 45MPH in a 25 MPH zone- it was a speed trap-she was on her way to school-she is a teacher and school is out for the summer here...anyway..she now has a $2,500 ticket!! But hey, she can pay it off in 3 yearly installments. It is insane but don't worry-these fines only apply to VA Residents-0ut of staters pay just the regular fine-"separate but equal"???? Our Department of Transportation and funding for Roads is seriously depleted...so they raised the fines.
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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby NotMyBlood » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 16:50:40

hills -

I'm in VA too. My 45 minute commute has now become an hour commute becuase I dont want a 2,500-3k ticket. So, the "one" chance during the trip I can pick up the speed, I dont anymore.

They must need money something terrible. Ive noticed an incread level of traffic police. People pulled over. Witnessed 3 pull overs on the way to work today! They need money. So, be careful.

Look , I'm all for traffic laws. We can't have jackasses out on the road, but to get a 2500 ticket for going 15-20 mph over the speed limit is INSANE. For normal everyday drivers. (talk about a police state). Now, these people who are "repeat" offenders. The guys with 10 tickets in a year or DWI tickets. Sure, fine those people. But dont give a school teacher probably making less than 40,000 a year a 2500k speeding ticket!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! sons of bitches.

Anyway, there is going to be hell to pay for the politicians who allowed this to happen.....you wait and see.....
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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby veliger » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 17:25:13

I don’t want to live in a city, ever. I live in a rural area and lived in suburbia most of my life before moving to a small town and now 2 acres on a hill surrounded by forest. I will only live in a city if I have to, most Americans have voted for suburbs over cities with their feet and wallets. Cities Suck!
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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby FairMaiden » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 19:02:18

I work in this industry designing infrastruture, programs and services to get folks to take non-SOV trips. (SOV = single occupancy vehicle). Here is my take on - ppl LOVE their cars. Its an emotional, not a LOGICAL connection. They've been sold this dream/vision that cars are freedom, that cars display their individuality and that they represent status. The value of that goes far beyond #'s like $3.50/gallon. The increase in oil prices in 2005/2006 DID expand things like carpooling in greater numbers than we've previously seen. My take is that alot of ppl thought they'd sign up for a "month or two" bc they didn't really think prices would stay there...its the hurricanes...its the refineries...ie, its not here to stay. We currently see ALOT of waste in this industry. Ppl will idle their cars for 15 mins waiting for their kids at the elementary school only blocks away from their homes. That tells me that they do not think about the cost of gas. The price is far too low to be a deterrant. Also, we see ppl living upto 100 miles from their workplaces. This is only viable/desirable bc everyone can still afford the relatively cheap gas prices. Gas is less than bottled water & milk for f*&*(&^ sake!

At $3.50 gallon, you'll see some secondary industries such as restaurants and retail suffer as disposable incomes shrink. But unless the price goes considerably higher - you will not see folks give up their cars for walking, biking, public transit. You won't see ppl moving or a mass sell of SOVs & pick ups (tho, new vehicles may show a reduction). It will have to be alot higher for any major changes.

PS: gas prices in Canada just reached the national average of $1.03 per litre - so we are nowhere near any breaking point either.
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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby FairMaiden » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 19:05:53

And as a side note, off topic but somewhat related...my work is now starting to focus alot of attention on "climate change adaptation for transportation & food security" instead of public education/social marketing & infrastructure. Everyone here is PO aware and we are changing our strategic plans accordingly.
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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby Zardoz » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 19:26:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heading_for_the_hills', 'I')t is INSANE- I live in VA!!! I had a friend who got a speeding ticket going 45MPH in a 25 MPH zone- it was a speed trap-she was on her way to school-she is a teacher and school is out for the summer here...anyway..she now has a $2,500 ticket!!

Wait a minute. Time out.

Two thousand, five hundred dollars for going 45 in a 25? You've got to be kidding.
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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby lawnchair » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 22:02:00

He's not kidding, though $2500 is on the high end (school zone, possibly second or third ticket).

from the Washington Post

In this regard, Amtrak looks better each day. Sad that its days are numbered.
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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby jbrovont » Fri 20 Jul 2007, 02:36:24

Getting back to the question of the tipping point of gas prices, it really boils down to this:

How far does the majority of the population drive to work? The people who consume the most gas - the suburbanites.

How much do they earn, and what's the average household expense sheet look like?

income = gas expenses + living expenses + savings/other

when the = becomes a <, there's your tipping point. The first ppl to be really hurt here will probably be the minimum wage workers, since most have two jobs, not in the same location and thus more road distance to travel, and take home around $5 per hour after taxes. That's around $40 per day at 8 hours (most minimum wage jobs are part time, hence the need for more than one). If your apartment runs you $500 per month, there's 12.5 days out of your 25 day month. That leaves another $500 for food, electric, heat, laundry, toiletries, car repairs and of course gas. Unfortunately minimum wage workers can't afford a prius, so we'll figure 20 mpg actual (city). What's the average trip to work? 10 miles? You bring home $40 a day, and right now $3.50 of that goes in the tank. (~ $87.50 per month). That's 1/5 of all the money you have after shelter. If you, let's say double that, to $7.00... ?

There's a point where people won't be able to afford to drive to work. I think with a little research we could calculate exactly where that 'demand destruction' point is, but we're dangerously close to it already.

And about the $2500 tickets - all I have to say is omg. Whoever enacted that law or ordinance or whatever - needs to loose their job asap. They are not 'serving' the public. That might look good on a budget, but whoever is responsible for that is destroying people's lives.
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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby cube » Fri 20 Jul 2007, 04:53:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FairMaiden', '.')..At $3.50 gallon, you'll see some secondary industries such as restaurants and retail suffer as disposable incomes shrink. But unless the price goes considerably higher - you will not see folks give up their cars for walking, biking, public transit...
BINGO

I think you've just hit the nail on the head. I don't know why so many people think there's some type of "proportional relationship" between an increase in fuel costs and driving less miles....that's NOT true.

Aside from cutting back on going out to eat another way to save money is to simply hold onto your car for more years instead buying a new one. The average age of a car on the road today is much higher then perhaps 25 years ago. Yes I know, an argument can be made this was due to technological improvements in automotive design and quality control. However it's also a consumer trend.
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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby MD » Fri 20 Jul 2007, 06:16:37

Whever the price begins to rise this question emerges: "At what price does the system break down?".

It's not a particularly relevant question, and here's why:

If there is a price shock with a sudden and significant shift upwards, then there will be economic disruption. The degree of disruption is partially driven by the amount of increase up until significant shortages occur at which time price loses relevance.

If the rate of change upwards remains constant at moderate levels, then people will incrementally drive fewer miles, which means lower consumption of goods (i.e. fewer miles=longer lasting vehicle=slowdowns at the auto factories).

In other words, the energy cycles change.

Open your eyes and look at energy cycles. They are changing all around us.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby emersonbiggins » Fri 20 Jul 2007, 11:42:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I') think you've just hit the nail on the head. I don't know why so many people think there's some type of "proportional relationship" between an increase in fuel costs and driving less miles....that's NOT true.


Cube, rarely are you wrong, but consider this:
Image

Fuel costs are affecting how much travel people do by car, and eliminating discretionary driving is going to be among the first things to go. With that going, so goes discretionary spending. You know what's next.

Also consider this:
Image

Transit ridership was up 10% YOY in 2006, far outstripping population growth. Again, fuel costs are affecting how much travel people do and the mode by which they do it.
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby NotMyBlood » Fri 20 Jul 2007, 11:48:21

I know I've cut back, not because of price, because I dont want to spend 30-40% of my day behind the wheel of a car, waiting for a freaking light to change, listening to music or some shock jock screaming to get my attention all the while giving me a cramp in my back.


The internet is great;
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Re: Americans would hit brakes if gas hits $3.50

Postby I_Like_Plants » Fri 20 Jul 2007, 15:08:10

My so-recently-deceased small biz involved 2-3 HOURS a day driving - not doing errends plus the driving, but the 2-3 HOURS of time spent daily, ass on car seat, moving or sitting at lights, etc. I seemed to average 50 miles a day.
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