[NEOPO]

He jokingly said thanksgiving at first and then retracted and seemed to "settle" with december ER was that Heinberg and I am getting my PO prophets all confused???
no!!wait.....its starting again!!!
Ok - I sometimes make mistakes

Damn Dr Deffeyes not only stated the month and day he also said he would be sipping his 6th scotch on the rocks while smoking his 3rd fine cuban cigaro when the world peaks

Wheres that link?!?!!?
Wiki needs a little help in this area it seems.
Kenneth S. Deffeyes
This one is better:
Join us as we watch the crisis unfolding

Aw ok great.....now he is passing out popcorn and opera glasses!!!

Knowing what I know now I wouldnt seek to disgrace him if he is proven wrong even though I hope he is!!!
Its too soon, my preps are not complete and I am not ready to die!!

He was probably wrong, yes , most definately, yes, wrong
<walks away whistling>

[RdSnt]

I have been conducting my affairs with the assumption that he was correct. It won't hurt me in the least if he was wrong, I will still benefit.

[robski]

From 16/09/06: Link
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut Kenneth Deffeyes, a leading peak-oil theorist from Princeton University, has seen nothing that shakes his conviction. On the contrary, he said he can point to the precise month when global crude production peaked: December, 2005. Prof. Deffeyes noted that data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicates world crude oil production peaking at 85.1 million barrels a day last December and then declining to 84.3 million barrels this past June.

He rejected suggestions the downturn is a temporary blip and was unfazed by the fact the EIA itself forecasts that oil production will grow to 102 million barrels a day by 2030. The December peak "fits a long-term curve that goes back to 1900," he said yesterday. And he dismissed the EIA's forecast: "I work from facts contained in the data, not from fantasies in forecasts."

[NEOPO]

Like a good movie with a real crappy ending.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')If you double the price, you automatically increase reserves."

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'L')ike a good movie with a real crappy ending.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')If you double the price, you automatically increase reserves."

[Leanan]

Sunset

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he impending doom and gloom from the world oil peak is ominous. There has been so little preparation and yet, if I am correct, the peak is upon us. We're feeling it now. The US government tried to cushion the bad news by introducing a “core inflation rate” which excludes energy and food. Word is getting around. The July 2, 2007 cover of the New Yorker shows the Statue of Liberty holding up a torch consisting of a fluorescent light bulb. It looks as if we will go through another US presidential election with no candidate calling attention to the world oil problem, or to the North American natural gas problem. My only hope is that a candidate, who learns from private polls that he or she is behind, will drop the oil bomb into the debate.

[billp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..Right now, energy supply looks to be struggling to keep up with demand. A recent study by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory concludes that, thanks to the industry shift to low-end servers, global power consumption has doubled since 2000 to more than 123 million kw/hours. Power demands are expected to increase by 40 percent come 2010 -- and that's assuming that per-server power consumption remains at 2005 rates.

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') am concerned about future power generation ... and construction overbuilding. Not only water problems but natural gas and electricity problems?

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow big is the problem? Multiplying production (barrels per year) times the oil price (dollars per barrel) gives a total cost in dollars per year. It's an enormous number; tens of trillions of dollars per year. To put a scale on it, the three thin curves on the graph show the oil cost in contrast to the total world domestic product; the annual value the goods and services added up for all the world's countries. The three curves show the oil cost at one percent, two and a half percent, and five percent of the total world economic output. At $130 this morning, we are at six and a half percent.

Oil production obviously cannot consume 100 percent of the world's income. My intuitive, uninformed guess is that it cannot go above 15 percent. If we see oil at $300 per barrel, we will be looking out over the smoldering ruins of the world's economy.

[Cashmere]

I don't understand the graph.
Can you link to the original?

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'I') don't understand the graph.
Can you link to the original?

[RdSnt]

It's a very useful graph. The 3 curves represent a specific percentage of global GDP. The cost of oil is then measured against GDP. So at the moment oil cost represents 6.5 percentage of GDP.

What isn't mentioned is that this graph provides an unambiguous proof of peak oil.
Price of oil is moderated by increases in supply. Normally as prices go up supply goes up.
Now think of the point at which production can no longer increase as a wall. Price meets that wall and has two directions it can go in. If we abandon oil then the price can go down, but if oil is essential (which it is) then the price can only go up.

Now, one more step, consider that the wall moves. In the case of the graph, to the left which represents a decline in supply.
Even though there will be some demand destruction due to high prices, since supply is going to decline the wall move to compensate for the drop in supply. Thus, prices will continue to rise.
Plus there is a limit to demand destruction because the majority of the fuel is consumed in essential services.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'I') don't understand the graph.

Can you link to the original?

[arretium]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'I')t's a very useful graph. The 3 curves represent a specific percentage of global GDP. The cost of oil is then measured against GDP. So at the moment oil cost represents 6.5 percentage of GDP.

What isn't mentioned is that this graph provides an unambiguous proof of peak oil.
Price of oil is moderated by increases in supply. Normally as prices go up supply goes up.
Now think of the point at which production can no longer increase as a wall. Price meets that wall and has two directions it can go in. If we abandon oil then the price can go down, but if oil is essential (which it is) then the price can only go up.

Now, one more step, consider that the wall moves. In the case of the graph, to the left which represents a decline in supply.
Even though there will be some demand destruction due to high prices, since supply is going to decline the wall moves to compensate for the drop in supply. Thus, prices will continue to rise.
Plus there is a limit to demand destruction because the majority of the fuel is consumed in essential services.

[MD]

This chart tells the story. You all need to reflect on its implications.

[MD]

This one is stickied. Great catch Dude and much thanks Ken Deffeyes.
ERoEI right in in your face people. Wake up. The horizon, she's receding very fast now.

[essex]

Thanks for the graph !

[syrac818]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'T')his one is stickied. Great catch Dude and much thanks Ken Deffeyes.
ERoEI right in in your face people. Wake up. The horizon, she's receding very fast now.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('syrac818', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'T')his one is stickied. Great catch Dude and much thanks Ken Deffeyes.
ERoEI right in in your face people. Wake up. The horizon, she's receding very fast now.

[TheDude]

Oh...that graph!

Makes me think of those movies where you see a submarine starting to capsize.

"One ping only!"