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Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby eastbay » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 01:03:25

chris-h,

It's excellent that you're thinking about this coming situation. For individuals all we can do is learn and prepare the best we can. It looks like you're learning and that places you well and far ahead of the pack.

Keep up the great work. Ignore the ones who ridicule your efforts. You're on the road and whether you're far along that road or starting is unimportant at this point. Just make regular progress.

Stay on the road to making it through this disaster. Constantly refine your personal lists and thinking along the lines of scope and depth. Always take a step toward pulling yourself through this. Each day take another, and then another. You've been here awhile and know what I mean. Study them for academic value, but don't sweat the larger issues for we have very little control over the direction they make take and when to expect things to turn sour.

But we can control many personal things. Save money, keep fit, learn to grow food, learn basic skills, and learn to shoot, if you haven't already. That's just for starters. Ignore the unkind pundits. You will encounter many, even here. Read and learn. Practice what you can and strive to do better and you should do better than most.
Got Dharma?

Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
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Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby cube » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 03:36:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'I')f the last 7 years have taught me anything it's that people will put up with all kinds of aggravation. If gas goes up far enough in price some will start looking to carpools.
I agree that when gas prices rise there must be cutbacks....somewhere. However there are so many places to cut back Starbucks coffee and movie tickets (for example) I honestly think carpooling is going to be the last resort after ALL other options have been expended....perhaps even dropping a nuke bomb on a soon to be liberated foreign nation!

In some ways cutbacks are already being made. The current trend is to hold onto your car longer to save money. The average age of cars on the road in the USA went from
7.5 years during the 1980's to
9.0 years during the 1990's.

Are auto sales a precursor to recessions? If yes then I think we're in for rough ride ahead. :-D
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Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 04:26:20

Great chart, Cube, thanks! My colleagues in LA laughed at me when I attempted doing technical analysis on 'economic indicators', but I see this chart does exactly that? ; - )

A car is not just a car. It can be basic transportation, in which case the Cubans are still driving American automobiles from the 1950s. They are even passed down through the family in their wills.

But it can also be a fashion accessory. Planned obsolescence to keep automakers in business.

Personally, I do not see any long-term benefit to society from putting more and more automobiles continuously on new roads built to accomodate them.

But China hopes to put more cars on the road in the next decade, so worldwide automobile production numbers are not falling.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') The Middle Kingdom’s middle class

A social revolution will soon transform China, and multinationals that do business there can’t afford to ignore it. So far, they have mostly focused on the country’s tiny minority of urban-affluent consumers. But as more Chinese migrate to the cities for higher-paying work, they are steadily climbing the income ladder. By 2011, McKinsey research suggests, China should have a lower middle class of 290 million people; by 2025, the upper middle class will be 520 million strong, with staggering disposable wealth. For many multinationals, this is the market of the future.


Source: The McKinsey Quarterly, June 2007

Of course, that just speeds up post peak oil depletion. Oops!
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Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 14:23:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'G')reat chart, Cube, thanks! My colleagues in LA laughed at me when I attempted doing technical analysis on 'economic indicators', but I see this chart does exactly that? ; - )


You know, that's just utterly fascinating. I never cease to be amazed at how far up their asses economists' heads often are. Ivory tower, forget it, these guys live in an ivory kingdom, on an ivory planet.

My car - 2000 Plymouth - has scrapes too. Fix 'em? Buy a new one? What the hell for? More mileage? :lol:
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
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Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby KingM » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 15:03:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'L')imiting yourself and your partner to one baby each is the start of all solutions (get "fixed" after that one).


If everyone who thought like this would donate $1000 toward providing family planning in Third World Countries, most of our population issues would recede.

In the meanwhile, you're just increasing the ratio of dumb, irresponsible people to the educated planners.
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Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby 128shot » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 15:12:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', ' ')What do you think ?
I think you have missed the Big Picture. I think you have posted Solutions in Isolation
Conservation is reduced economic activity. On the scale you propose, it means massive unemployment as the reduced economic activity spreads throughout all facets of commerce, especially the auto industry, from tires to insurance, to car washes.
Consumers "buying less crap" = less sales= layoffs and business failures, which leads to more layoffs and more business failures. To keep everyone employed, we would have to cut wages 50% or abandon machine labor for human labor. And even then, how long would this last? With population growth alone, all gains from this would be eclipsed in a matter of years....even as oil moves rapidly down the terminal slope of decline.
What do I think? I think you haven't even begun to think this through.

humans always find a way to keep themselves occupied. Transitional periods aside..
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Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby 128shot » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 15:17:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') think you haven't even begun to think this through.
Sadly, I agree. Cutting back is just not going to cut it. With an economy based on an exponential growth rate, there's no way that a several percent a year contraction would do anything but devastate, and particularly when 70% of the economy is consumer spending and everbody is working in the service industry. Ma'am, may I service you? Sir, do you require and service?

So, what is the alternative to an exponential growth economy? It seems thats all humans have ever been capable of functioning in.
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Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 03:19:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'G')reat chart, Cube, thanks! My colleagues in LA laughed at me when I attempted doing technical analysis on 'economic indicators', but I see this chart does exactly that? ; - )


You know, that's just utterly fascinating. I never cease to be amazed at how far up their asses economists' heads often are. Ivory tower, forget it, these guys live in an ivory kingdom, on an ivory planet.

My car - 2000 Plymouth - has scrapes too. Fix 'em? Buy a new one? What the hell for? More mileage? :lol:


You know what? That's just bullshit!

Trying to predict the future based on the past is never easy. But the most important part of the exercise is in the gathering of data, and then trying to make sense of it.

Regression analysis proves causality. And that already is very fucking important!

Guess what? I have heard so many stupid, uninformed opinions on peak oil dot com that it would make even a mediocre economist/analyst look brilliant by comparison.

Every forecast is based on assumptions. Change the assumptions and you change the end point. The forecast is not important in itself. The assumptions are.

So the more analysis the better. It helps make informed decisions, but perhaps more importantly it helps to avoid costly mistakes. What matters gets measured whereas opinions are like assholes. Everyone has one.
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Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby SILENTTODD » Mon 16 Jul 2007, 23:09:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'L')imiting yourself and your partner to one baby each is the start of all solutions (get "fixed" after that one).


If everyone who thought like this would donate $1000 toward providing family planning in Third World Countries, most of our population issues would recede.

In the meanwhile, you're just increasing the ratio of dumb, irresponsible people to the educated planners.


Unfortunately I believe your right. That’s why I’ve become very pessimistic on the chances of avoiding a Malthian die off in the next two or three decades.
Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
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Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby KingM » Tue 17 Jul 2007, 09:29:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', '
')In the meanwhile, you're just increasing the ratio of dumb, irresponsible people to the educated planners.


Unfortunately I believe your right. That’s why I’ve become very pessimistic on the chances of avoiding a Malthian die off in the next two or three decades.


We call it dysgenic, but in reality, I think there's a feedback loop in human genetics between the grasshoppers and the ants. The grasshoppers multiply in times of plenty (never more evident than now), but die off during famines, collapses, etc. When the grasshoppers grow too numerous, society declines. Then, during the subsequent dark ages, the ants grow in numbers relative to the grasshoppers.

Energy issues aside, I think the only way to maintain human civilization across thousands of years would be if a single global government determined who could or could not reproduce in order to keep the world from turning into an overpopulated hellhole of idiots (see: Idiocracy) within a few hundred years. Once again, even assuming unlimitted energy supplies, how likely is this to happen?
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Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby xrotaryguy » Tue 17 Jul 2007, 17:37:04

Chris-h, you're over simplifying of course, but I think you're right. There are soooooo many ways to maintain a comfortable living in a post peak world. Your suggestions are only a few, but it illustrates just how easy some of the solutions are.
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Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby Scactha » Wed 18 Jul 2007, 07:07:51

I talked to a collegue at work recently. We work at a logistics company (not much work for historians :(). I mentioned that our business maybe don´t have such a rosy future. In the end he retreated into the silver bullit defense of electric cars fueled by fusion energy reactors. He just refused to contemplate the notion that business as usual wouldn´t continue to the point of losing his temper.

In short, people indeed are self delusional.
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Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 18 Jul 2007, 10:40:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Scactha', 'I') talked to a collegue at work recently. We work at a logistics company (not much work for historians :(). I mentioned that our business maybe don´t have such a rosy future. In the end he retreated into the silver bullit defense of electric cars fueled by fusion energy reactors. He just refused to contemplate the notion that business as usual wouldn´t continue to the point of losing his temper.

In short, people indeed are self delusional.


Is not a logistics company supposed to find the best, most cost efficient delivery options for their customer? I should think you would be on the cutting edge of looking for trade-offs between higher levels of inventory versus just in time delivery; alternate transport by ship or rail versus truck; fuel saving technologies, etc.?
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Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby Scactha » Mon 23 Jul 2007, 02:23:56

Right you are Mr Bill. I find it increasingly curious that the management is clueless about the future of energy. I have managed to realise this somewhat for them I belive and that e.g. real eastate or land in general would be a good investment alternative.
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Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 23 Jul 2007, 03:10:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Scactha', 'R')ight you are Mr Bill. I find it increasingly curious that the management is clueless about the future of energy. I have managed to realise this somewhat for them I belive and that e.g. real eastate or land in general would be a good investment alternative.


It is not easy to push senior management where they do not want to go. I just keep pitching my ideas and make sure they are well documented. Eventually they will catch on. Until then, my arrears are covered.
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Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby LateGreatPlanetEarth » Mon 06 Aug 2007, 01:16:31

good to have much debt when peak hits, since the debt will be forgiven since the dollar will be valueless.
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Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby LateGreatPlanetEarth » Mon 08 Oct 2012, 15:49:37

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