Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby chris-h » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 12:23:58

What would happen if 50 % of all oil that is consumed in the USA vanishes tomorrow ? (and that is the worst case scenario )

Cars - Solution 2 people in the same car instead of one. Instant doubling of the efficiency of the American car !
Trucks- Solution Get cargo from half the distance or use rail or boat or make the consumers buy less crap.
Homes . Solution Two families in the same home .
Vacations Go half distance .
Food : Solution Two ex fatties eat as much as one fat guy.
Two vegans eat as much as one meat eater. Or make more people work as farmers.
Health care : No problem . Very poor countries can have better health care than the US when doctors put human needs above profit _Points to Cuba.
Unemployment ? Solution . Work closer to home or have the company provide transportation or if your job is important to you use a bicycle or a scooter.
Economy ? Very simply there will be a new deal or a revolution. They are making preparations to stop that revolution .
Empire ? I do not benefit from the empire so frankly i do not give a damn.

All those above (except the keep the empire going ) apply in every developed country that is not an empire.

Peak oil is not the end of the world.It is however the end of the empire.They are desperate to keep the empire going .
EU is not an empire. Japan is not an empire. China is not an empire That is why their politicians are not desperate and do not act like desperate men.
Only the USA is an empire.


What do you think ?
88822-88822=0
chris-h
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 414
Joined: Mon 11 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 12:41:18

People won't react until there is a crises, and once the crises hits, it will be too late. The economy is about to have an epic crash. Personal debt is maxed out, housing refi's have maxed out, declining house prices will cause people to be upside down in their loans, sub prime loans are resetting with higher rates. The list goes on and on. This crash will make the great depression look like a day at disney world.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7450
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby Windmills » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 12:48:18

When the average American thinks solution, they are most likely looking for a way to continue business as usual with no sacrifices.
In that regard, I think what you've posted aren't solutions, but rather adaptations that will be forced on most people as the situation declines. Those are reasonable things to do now, but the problem will continue to get worse, and the responses will need to get more extreme. For example, you propose two-family households. Eventually, we might see a return to multi-generational households. Generally speaking, we'll have to multiply the reach of each of those adaptations, possible until an ultimate equilibrium is reached. What you've proposed may be just the beginning. The problem of peak oil is declining production, and nothing except a complete cessation of oil pumping is going to stop that decline.
Windmills
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 547
Joined: Tue 11 Oct 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Arizona, USA

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby SILENTTODD » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 13:58:03

Limiting yourself and your partner to one baby each is the start of all solutions (get "fixed" after that one).

For the United States, aggressively limit immigration into this country. Immigration from third world countries is the source of the extra progeny that has expanded the U.S. population by 100 million since 1967.
Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
User avatar
SILENTTODD
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 928
Joined: Sat 06 May 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Corona, CA

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby TheDude » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 15:08:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ars - Solution 2 people in the same car instead of one. Instant doubling of the efficiency of the American car !


One of my hunches is that Internet organized carpooling will become enormously popular when gas prices skyrocket. Or perhaps it will be enforced by mandate. You'd cut into demand in a big way at any rate - stop and go traffic is one of the most wasteful uses of gas we have going. I wonder if anyone's crunched these numbers for a scenario where even 5% of the commuting populace carpooled.

Carpooling
Car sharing

Interesting quote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')oger Snoble of the MTA (Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority) says that at 1.3 people per car, there would be no traffic in Los Angeles.


Image

And a modern take from Bill Maher:

Image
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
User avatar
TheDude
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4896
Joined: Thu 06 Apr 2006, 03:00:00
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby TheOtherSide » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 17:15:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '
')Peak oil is not the end of the world.It is however the end of the empire.They are desperate to keep the empire going .
EU is not an empire. Japan is not an empire. China is not an empire That is why their politicians are not desperate and do not act like desperate men.
Only the USA is an empire.

Peak oil isn't the end of empires, it's the rebirth of empires. Absurdly little technology and energy is needed. A tiny bit of coal and a steam engine - and you can rule half the globe. Some wood and a sail - and you can impose your will across a continent.

Only with the abundance of energy did people start concerning themselves with issues like international peace, respect for human life and the self-determination of nations.

Add to that that authoritarian nations will be better off after PO hits. While democracies will offer every solution to ignore the problem and assure people that they can continue living as they did, dictatorships can suck it up, sacrifice some population and the standard of living, but in end up with a functioning, organized society, and basic services for all.

Now add it up together.

It's just a matter of time until that invading other countries for resources is not only worthwhile, but also should be cheared.
User avatar
TheOtherSide
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 20
Joined: Sat 30 Jun 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby FloridaGirl » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 17:16:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')What would happen if 50 % of all oil that is consumed in the USA vanishes tomorrow ? (and that is the worst case scenario )


If the US has a 50% cut in oil, then the US gasoline consumers will have much a much bigger cut than 50%. You can be sure that the military will get 100% of what they need and electric companies, police, fire and other government agencies will get 100% of what they need. So how much does that leave for the gasoline consumer?

All of the "solutions" you mentioned will eventually happen, but not until people are forced to. If we started now, then the transition will be less painful (but painful all the same).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Trucks- Solution Get cargo from half the distance or use rail or boat or make the consumers buy less crap.


People will buy less crap because there'll be less crap to buy (less diesel to ship it) and people will not be able to afford as much (due to unemployment and inflation, see below).

About 2/3s of our economy is due to consumer buying, so buying a lot less stuff means high unemployment, businesses failing and the stock market crashing. In the Great Depression, the stock market lost about 95% (Dow) from peak to trough.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Homes . Solution Two families in the same home .


As the economy fails, more homes will be foreclosed on. It's already started with the subprimes, but investor loans will be next and ultimately prime loans will fail due to loss of jobs. That means the lenders will be stuck with a lot of homes which they cannot sell for anywhere near what was owed on them. So many lenders and banks will began to fail. The government will be strained trying to support the FDIC accounts and will have to print more money to do so. More money supply means inflation. Those who own US Treasuries will start cashing them in and the government will have to print even more money to pay them (our government has no reserves). Oil exporting countries will stop trading oil in US dollars because of it's instability, thus adding even more dollars to the market!

I agree that this transition from a plentiful and cheap oil economy/society to one with limited and expensive oil will make the Great Depression look like a piece of cake.

And I'm usually considered an optimist.
User avatar
FloridaGirl
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 165
Joined: Wed 30 May 2007, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 19:39:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', ' ')What do you think ?


I think you have missed the Big Picture. I think you have posted Solutions in Isolation

Conservation is reduced economic activity.

On the scale you propose, it means massive unemployment as the reduced economic activity spreads throughout all facets of commerce, especially the auto industry, from tires to insurance, to car washes.

Consumers "buying less crap" = less sales= layoffs and business failures, which leads to more layoffs and more business failures.

To keep everyone employed, we would have to cut wages 50% or abandon machine labor for human labor.

And even then, how long would this last?

With population growth alone, all gains from this would be eclipsed in a matter of years....even as oil moves rapidly down the terminal slope of decline.

What do I think?

I think you haven't even begun to think this through.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby ohanian » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 19:42:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FloridaGirl', '
')As the economy fails, more homes will be foreclosed on. It's already started with the subprimes, but investor loans will be next and ultimately prime loans will fail due to loss of jobs. That means the lenders will be stuck with a lot of homes which they cannot sell for anywhere near what was owed on them. So many lenders and banks will began to fail. The government will be strained trying to support the FDIC accounts and will have to print more money to do so. More money supply means inflation. Those who own US Treasuries will start cashing them in and the government will have to print even more money to pay them (our government has no reserves). Oil exporting countries will stop trading oil in US dollars because of it's instability, thus adding even more dollars to the market!


What you say is true (or would be true) BUT

I should point out that it would take 10-20 years to occur and would not occur in a timeframe of 1 year.

Just look at how long it took IBM to supposedly "collapse". USA is much much much bigger than IBM.
User avatar
ohanian
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1553
Joined: Sun 17 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby Roccland » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 19:57:03

500 MPH into a brick wall - me
User avatar
Roccland
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1604
Joined: Sat 16 Jun 2007, 03:00:00

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby Rogozhin » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 23:16:51

Commercial fuel costs eat out the the military section of the energy pie.

I've worked commercial harvesting/culitivation/planting, and I know how dependant commerical agriculture is on cheap energy.

When you combine the cost of gas/diesel with the REAL cost of a loaf of store bought bread you'll not be able to swing the line.

Unless you're rich. :)

Rogo
User avatar
Rogozhin
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 318
Joined: Tue 26 Dec 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Eastern Washington

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby FloridaGirl » Mon 09 Jul 2007, 01:26:52

ohanian wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I should point out that it would take 10-20 years to occur and would not occur in a timeframe of 1 year.


I didn't mention a time frame. I don't know when the economic collapse will occur, I just know that it will. If we consider the more optimistic but still realistic estimates of Peak being in about 10 years, then it may be 15-20 years before the new Great Depression occurs. That's a long ways away but it is still in our lifetime for most of us.

I talked about 3 phases of home foreclosures: subprime, investor and prime. We've been in the subprime phase for some months now and it will probably span a few more years. The other phases will overlap but with some delay.

I don't think we'll have a sudden 50% loss of oil since we have so many different sources for imports. That is, assuming our government doesn't do something stupid like limit the price of gasoline. Doing something like that would limit our ability to buy imported oil and gasoline.

As for the stock market crash, in the Great Depression, it took about 3 years for it to go from peak to trough.

Now the international loss of confidence in the dollar is where things could go bad for us really fast (matter of days). This could be any day now or decades from now. Considering how much the dollar is falling against other currencies, I'd guess sooner rather than later.

See

China Sells More US T-bonds

It says in an article dated 2007-06-19:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tatistics from the US Treasury Department show that China sold a net US$5.8 billion of T-bonds, the first drop in holdings since October 2005. Japan remains the largest holder of US T-bonds, with its holdings reaching US$614.8 billion in April, according to the statistics.

China remained the second-largest holder of US T-bonds, as its stake fell to US$414.0 billion in April from US$419.8 billion in March this year. The United States had US$4.4 trillion of tradable bonds in April


That's a lot of debt in the hands in foreign countries. We are at their mercy.
User avatar
FloridaGirl
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 165
Joined: Wed 30 May 2007, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby Gideon » Mon 09 Jul 2007, 01:35:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') think you haven't even begun to think this
through.

Sadly, I agree. Cutting back is just not going to cut it. With an economy based on an exponential growth rate, there's no way that a several percent a year contraction would do anything but devastate, and particularly when 70% of the economy is consumer spending and everbody is working in the service industry.
Ma'am, may I service you? Sir, do you require and service?
<b>Chief of Asshole Certification</b>
Gideon
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 25
Joined: Tue 29 Aug 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby cube » Mon 09 Jul 2007, 04:04:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'O')ne of my hunches is that Internet organized carpooling will become enormously popular when gas prices skyrocket. Or perhaps it will be enforced by mandate....
NOT going to happen. Carpooling is so ridiculously unpopular there's more Americans that rely on public transit then carpooling.

Do you know why?

A car is a person's "personal space". People do not like letting random strangers into their cars no more so would you let strangers walk into your house or share your clothes with someone else.

Some environmental groups have basically given up on promoting carpooling because they know point blank it's NOT going to happen. Why waste your time preaching to deaf ears? Instead they promote public transit, smart growth, and smaller cars....something that actually has a plausible chance of being implemented.
cube
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3909
Joined: Sat 12 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby chris-h » Mon 09 Jul 2007, 12:49:49

When oil supplies are cut by 50 % people are going to start riots.
The police will try to stop the riots.The police will fail.
The army will try to stop the riots. The army will fail to stop the riots if the army cannot use extreme violence.
The President will declare martial law and then the army will start shooting and killing.
When the shortages become permanent democracy will end.The president will become the new dictator.
If you object to the government policies about peak oil you will be labeled a traitor beaten raped sent to jail or to a concentration camp or you will be executed.
After a few million people are executed all resistance to the new policies will end.It is called a dictatorship.
Additionally when the economy collapses the government will run everything.
The very rich 1% will become the 'inner party" and the rest will become the "steeple party members"
It will not be called communism but it will be communism.

The "final solution" for the peak oil in USA.Dictatorship , hidden communism and oil conservation. Halliburton's Immigrant Detention Centers link

Not just for immigrants. Muslims , liberals , minorities , people that oppose the government will be inmates. You do not like these ?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ars - Solution 2 people in the same car instead of one. Instant doubling of the efficiency of the American car !
Trucks- Solution Get cargo from half the distance or use rail or boat or make the consumers buy less crap.
Homes . Solution Two families in the same home .
Vacations Go half distance .
Food : Solution Two ex fatties eat as much as one fat guy.
Two vegans eat as much as one meat eater. Or make more people work as farmers.
Health care : No problem . Very poor countries can have better health care than the US when doctors put human needs above profit _Points to Cuba.
Unemployment ? Solution . Work closer to home or have the company provide transportation or if your job is important to you use a bicycle or a scooter.

Your opinion will not matter anymore.Obey or be executed. Illegal aliens do not experience a democracy in the USA.They have no rights. Illegal aliens experience a dictatorship in the USA. Illegal aliens live in far worse conditions than USA citizens and do not complain because they live in a dictatorship. Soon everyone will live in a dictatorship. It is a solution.Not the perfect solution but much better than mad max.
88822-88822=0
chris-h
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 414
Joined: Mon 11 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby jedinvest » Mon 09 Jul 2007, 14:37:24

cris-h wronte:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')our opinion will not matter anymore.Obey or be executed.


Interesting. So you mean China is really the model that the U.S.A. will be based upon. So the final denouement of the Cold War is that we are all the same: George Orwell's 1984.

This sounds very plausible. I am curious how this fully plays out. Are the technorati complicit in this??
jedinvest
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 231
Joined: Fri 09 Mar 2007, 04:00:00
Location: No. Calif.
Top

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby TheDude » Mon 09 Jul 2007, 15:48:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'S')ome environmental groups have basically given up on promoting carpooling because they know point blank it's NOT going to happen.


Hrmmph. I'm sure it hasn't worked before, not with gas as cheap as it's been. If the last 7 years have taught me anything it's that people will put up with all kinds of aggravation. If gas goes up far enough in price some will start looking to carpools. And with shortages you can bet on it. Two people carpooling right now would be the equivalent of paying ca. $1.50 a gallon, like in the salad days of 2002. Sigh!

Did people resort to carpooling much in '73 and '79?
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
User avatar
TheDude
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4896
Joined: Thu 06 Apr 2006, 03:00:00
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Top

Re: Peak oil in the USA ? Solved.

Unread postby TheOtherSide » Mon 09 Jul 2007, 22:10:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', 'A')fter a few million people are executed all resistance to the new policies will end.It is called a dictatorship.
Additionally when the economy collapses the government will run everything. The very rich 1% will become the 'inner party" and the rest will become the "steeple party members"
It will not be called communism but it will be communism. The "final solution" for the peak oil in USA.Dictatorship , hidden communism and oil conservation. Halliburton's Immigrant Detention Centers link
Not just for immigrants. Muslims, liberals, minorities , people that oppose the government will be inmates. You do not like these ?

Communism? You wish. The US government even now doesn't give a fuck about basic education, healthcare and job security, when they have the resources. Suddenly making a 180-degree turn when they have to fight for survival with less resources makes no sense. It'll be fascism, plain and simple.

"The government will run everything?" Impossible in America. Where will all the major corporation suddenly disappear to? They're just going to give up and hand everything over to the government? Quite the opposite - the government will be the first to run and save the corporations. Because sure as hell they're not going to abandon them after years of cooperation and virtual marriage.

Energy is going to be cheap after the Economic Crash. When October 29, 1929 happens again, demand will be destroyed much faster than any loss of production. Plus, labour will be dirt cheap when 90%+ are unemployed. It'll be a great time for any surviving corporation to cash in big time. And the government will aid them, ensuring that the serfs keep quiet.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ot the perfect solution but much better than mad max.

True to that (and everything else in your post). But with the amount of nuts running around with guns in America, I will expect Russian Civil War Part 2 before that.
User avatar
TheOtherSide
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 20
Joined: Sat 30 Jun 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Toronto, Canada
Top

Next

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron