[Eli]

Thank goodness their is no supply crunch now and we have a few years left.

[Cyrus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'T')hank goodness their is no supply crunch now and we have a few years left.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'T')hank goodness their is no supply crunch now and we have a few years left.

[Eli]

I hear ya Bas

I used to think hey maybe a recession won't be so bad and it will help us put off peak for awhile. Now after being on here a while longer I think it won't help a bit.

What will happen is that all those super expensive projects in the deep gulf and expansion of the rock tar crap up in Canada will be instantly shelved. And guess what? PO anyway.

[Bas]

I just find it so strange to watch the IEA dance their little dance around the real subject at hand, trying hard to keep their credibility while trying at the same time to say the least possible and in the most vague way possible; it makes me sick to the point I want to puke on those political minion clowns that work there.....

I guess the best we can hope for that, however sick, they at least informed the governments of the world about the coming decline a long time ago....

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'I') just find it so strange to watch the IEA dance their little dance around the real subject at hand, trying hard to keep their credibility while trying at the same time to say the least possible and in the most vague way possible; it makes me sick to the point I want to puke on those political minion clowns that work there.....

I guess the best we can hope for that, however sick, they at least informed the governments of the world about the coming decline a long time ago....

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', '
')
Hi Bas

I think the IEA are currently trying to square an impossible circle. On the one hand they have a responsibility to warn the OECD of an impending crisis, on the other they cannot shout the words PEAK OIL too early, else they loose credability - and that would not help things either, if they are too early. Don't kid yourself that they are not aware of the potential gravity of the situation.

So I think they have taken a very zen-like attitude, which is to point at 'the beast' without speaking it's name out loud.

Others within the organisation have spoken louder, which is something I introduced on this thread IEA admits to peak?

The dragon will roar soon-enough.

JPL

[wxman]

Don't worry, Melissa Francis on CNBC's On the Money just told me that Saudi Arabia has a ton of spare capacity, so we should "drink up".

I wish I was kidding.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wxman', 'D')on't worry, Melissa Francis on CNBC's On the Money just told me that Saudi Arabia has a ton of spare capacity, so we should "drink up". I wish I was kidding.

[Bas]

I guess this confirms more or less what JPL just said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')en OPEC members began cutting production last year to stem a drop in prices. The IEA in its monthly Oil Market Report has for the past four months urged OPEC to open the taps to avoid over-tightening the market.

Some analysts say the agency is being alarmist and that its warnings about supplies are actually leading to higher prices.

"The International Energy Agency has put such a fear premium in the market that crude futures remain bought no matter what," said Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix

[Cobra_Strike]

Wait a moment...by staying that in 2009 OPEC will be down 2 million B. They are saying the the peak happens BEFORE 2009. 2 million would be a hell of a drop during the year they say the peak happens.

It more likely that the peak happens pre-decline after all.

[ohanian]

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b ... 051253.ece

World facing oil ‘supply crunch’ as demand soars, agency warns



The world faces an energy squeeze as soaring demand for fuel exceeds the rate of growth in the supply of crude oil, the West’s leading energy forecaster has predicted.

In a gloomy appraisal of the global oil balance, the International Energy Agency yesterday predicted a world of increasing market tightness beyond 2010. The world faces a “supply crunch” by 2012, according to the agency’s Medium-Term Oil Market Report, with weak increases in oil output from nonOpec countries colliding with strong demand and diminished spare capacity within the cartel of oil producers.

[Judgie]

Better article thanks to UK Times and Ohanian, pulled it from Ohanian's thread:

http://www.peakoil.com/post489210.html#489210

in Peak Oil Discussion. I thought it might be good to have in here too :
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b ... 051253.ece

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')“You cannot have high demand, high oil prices and a high requirement for Opec crude at the same time. Something has to give,” Mr Drollas said.

[Judgie]

We have this underway already in this thread:
http://www.peakoil.com/post489208.html#489208

I have added a link to the same article, and to your thread

Cheers.

[MC2]

Well, the story is now splashed across Matt Drudge's site - second time in two weeks. What I find funny is that they had to invent a new term for what everyone here has been calling "Peak Oil" for a long time: "Plateau Oil." It's like they just can't bring themselves to say the words, like the fictional folk in Harry Potter and their references to "he who must not be named," or "you know who" in place of the villain Voldemort. Funny stuff.

But Peak Oil is not going to be a funny thing. Wait until this finally becomes truly a mainstream concept. I won't be looked at funny by relatives and close friends with whom I try to discuss the subject anymore. And, the best part: watching them go through the various stages of the Kubler-Ross process in coming to terms (or not) with the industrial world's imminent demise.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', 'W')ait a moment...by staying that in 2009 OPEC will be down 2 million B. They are saying the the peak happens BEFORE 2009. 2 million would be a hell of a drop during the year they say the peak happens.

It more likely that the peak happens pre-decline after all.

[Eli]

The IEA has been calling for OPEC to increase production for awhile now.

Up until now they always seemed to say there would be no problem with OPEC keeping up with demand.

I wonder if Saudi, and others told the IEA "hey guys we would like to give you more oil but uh... we can't."

It does seem to be a pretty big about face for them.

[fluffy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gampy', 'T')hey also mention something called "plateau oil". As opposed to peak-oil. Same difference, but sounds a little better, I guess. The hubbert curve looks like a plateau at the top if you narrow the timeline. Curious what CERA will say about this.

[turmoil]

Do you guys remember the cartoon "The Road Runner" where the Coyote would get thrown up into the air by one of his ACME contraptions, decelerate to a stop, look down, yelp, and then fall screaming to the ground?

Well...maybe if we all just don't "look down" we'll be fine...

[Eli]

fluffy, I think you have to take a look again at your list.

Iraq first of all is in very bad shape and going to get worse as far as production goes. Every goal the US has set for the current Iraqi government during the surge have not been met. The republicans are abandoning Iraq, the only person willing to fight it out their is Bill Kristol the neocon chicken hawk reporter. I think we need to get him some body armorer and m-16 stat so he can show us how to win this war.

And all the projects in the deep water gulf are continuing to run into problems with ever increasing production costs.

And as far as China goes until proven otherwise everything that comes out of there is worth as much as a tube of tainted toothpaste.