[KingM]

As a caveat, although I believe in big disruptions from PO, I'm not a doomer, and still hold out hope that we'll get through to the other side without a massive collapse.

Having said that, I'm puzzled by the continued economic boom that has now spread beyond China to India, Russia, Brazil, SE Asia and quite a few other countries. Africa, as always, is a basket case, and Latin America is mixed, but most other parts of the world are growing smartly. I find this hard to fathom in light of high oil prices.

Any thoughts?

[Heineken]

Expressions like "growth" and "economic boom" are hollow ones. They are symptoms of our terminal disease.

The only capital that matters is natural capital, and that is in bankruptcy or nearly so.

[benzoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'A')s a caveat, although I believe in big disruptions from PO, I'm not a doomer, and still hold out hope that we'll get through to the other side without a massive collapse.

Having said that, I'm puzzled by the continued economic boom that has now spread beyond China to India, Russia, Brazil, SE Asia and quite a few other countries. Africa, as always, is a basket case, and Latin America is mixed, but most other parts of the world are growing smartly. I find this hard to fathom in light of high oil prices.

Any thoughts?

[MC2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'A')s a caveat, although I believe in big disruptions from PO, I'm not a doomer, and still hold out hope that we'll get through to the other side without a massive collapse.

Having said that, I'm puzzled by the continued economic boom that has now spread beyond China to India, Russia, Brazil, SE Asia and quite a few other countries. Africa, as always, is a basket case, and Latin America is mixed, but most other parts of the world are growing smartly. I find this hard to fathom in light of high oil prices.

Any thoughts?

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'A')s a caveat, although I believe in big disruptions from PO, I'm not a doomer, and still hold out hope that we'll get through to the other side without a massive collapse.

Having said that, I'm puzzled by the continued economic boom that has now spread beyond China to India, Russia, Brazil, SE Asia and quite a few other countries. Africa, as always, is a basket case, and Latin America is mixed, but most other parts of the world are growing smartly. I find this hard to fathom in light of high oil prices.

Any thoughts?

[FoxV]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'H')aving said that, I'm puzzled by the continued economic boom that has now spread beyond China to India, Russia, Brazil, SE Asia and quite a few other countries.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'A')s a caveat, although I believe in big disruptions from PO, I'm not a doomer, and still hold out hope that we'll get through to the other side without a massive collapse.

Having said that, I'm puzzled by the continued economic boom that has now spread beyond China to India, Russia, Brazil, SE Asia and quite a few other countries. Africa, as always, is a basket case, and Latin America is mixed, but most other parts of the world are growing smartly. I find this hard to fathom in light of high oil prices.

Any thoughts?

[KingM]

I agree with many comments on this thread. However, the real economic growth measures of increasing manufacturing and rising standards of living in Third World countries are also increasing. With oil prices through the roof and other energy costs high as well, I can't figure out how this is happening.

It does give me hope, however. The undulating plateau that we seem to be entering gives us more leeway and more time to transition to other energy sources. It's going to mean a huge headache, but there's no question we have enough energy and money to make these changes if we start sooner, rather than later.

[MrBill]

To KillJoy. Last post deleted. Adds nothing to discussion. Takes up too much bandwidth. Nothing to do with Peak Oil Depletion Economics. Thanks. MrBill.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'I') agree with many comments on this thread. However, the real economic growth measures of increasing manufacturing and rising standards of living in Third World countries are also increasing. With oil prices through the roof and other energy costs high as well, I can't figure out how this is happening.

It does give me hope, however. The undulating plateau that we seem to be entering gives us more leeway and more time to transition to other energy sources. It's going to mean a huge headache, but there's no question we have enough energy and money to make these changes if we start sooner, rather than later.

[jdumars]

This thread got me thinking about how this phenomenon is structured in terms of 'the curve' -- and I came up with something relatively interesting. In reality, I believe there are 3 peaks, and we are in the second of the three. I did a very rough diagram:



With oil (or any discovery of a natural resource), there are 3 distinct stages. Discovery/Production -> Processing -> consumption. The time lag on these is unique for each type of resource, as some raw materials are easier and faster to process than others. In some cases, the lag is much longer for processing (many ores qualify), and some consumption takes longer because of time-to-market (i.e. transporting LNG). Oil seems on the surface to be fairly consistent across these bands, at least for light sweet. What I find most interesting is that the "echo" between the curves gives the perception of a plateau at the top of the curves, even though there is a perceivable drop-off limited to the affected sector. That is to say that consumers on the end will be 2 peaks removed from the physical reality. It also means that by the time Joe consumer is aware of the problem, it's way too late to do much about it, because we're further down the physical curve than we had previously considered. I believe we may be in the second curve, maybe just starting into the 3rd. The economic boom makes perfect sense if you view it through this lens.

I know this is a little off-topic, but I'd appreciate any thoughts on this.

[halcyon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'I') agree with many comments on this thread. However, the real economic growth measures of increasing manufacturing and rising standards of living in Third World countries are also increasing.

[Euric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'E')xpressions like "growth" and "economic boom" are hollow ones. They are symptoms of our terminal disease.

The only capital that matters is natural capital, and that is in bankruptcy or nearly so.

[Euric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', 'B')ecause the US money supply growth is now exceeding 13% (latest on Shadowstats.com The rest of the world has to print to match the US debasement, or to nationalize the USDs coming in. The results is a huge amounts of cash flooding the markets, causing booms all over the place (remember US represents 25% of global GDP, so whatever they do has a large effect on the world markets)

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The Mogambo Guru', 'T')he Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has reported that the total clot of global derivatives in existence is now $415.2 trillion, with comes out to 789% of global GDP.

In typical Mogambo parlance, grubby financial bets financed by banks and the financial services industry now total almost eight times the value of every freaking good and service produced on the entire freaking planet in an entire freaking year!

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'H')aving said that, I'm puzzled by the continued economic boom that has now spread beyond China to India, Russia, Brazil, SE Asia and quite a few other countries. Africa, as always, is a basket case, and Latin America is mixed, but most other parts of the world are growing smartly. I find this hard to fathom in light of high oil prices.

Any thoughts?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
A decade after the world descended into a devastating economic crisis, a key marker of revival has finally been achieved. Every major economy on earth is expanding at once, a synchronous wave of growth that is creating jobs, lifting fortunes and tempering fears of popular discontent. No tidy, all-encompassing narrative explains how the world has finally escaped the global downturn. The United States has been propelled by government spending unleashed during the previous administration, plus a recent $1.5 trillion shot of tax cuts. Europe has finally felt the effects of cheap money pumped out by its central bank. In general terms, improvement owes less to some newfound wellspring of wealth than the simple fact that many of the destructive forces that felled growth have finally exhausted their potency. The long convalescence has yielded a global recovery that is far from blistering in pace,

[Tanada]

What a crock. The economy is booming because people have confidence and access to funds. All that 'stimulus' spending by the central banks and governments only helped those who were already in the top 5% stay in the top 5%.

[onlooker]

It is but temporary. As, all major Economies are now relying for economic vitality on fiscal stimulus ie. Debt. This has become over recent years more and more evident and widespread. And the Stock markets are buoyed by these QE and fall into balloon dynamics. So all this is more akin to a Ponzi Scheme than to healthy fundamentals for the world Economy.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'I')t is but temporary. As, all major Economies are now relying for economic vitality on fiscal stimulus ie. Debt. This has become over recent years more and more evident and widespread. And the Stock markets are buoyed by these QE and falls into ballon dynamics. So all this is more akin to a Ponzi Scheme and to healthy fundamentals for the world Economy.