[Jellric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou don’t need much energy to keep a tyranny going, just ID cards, check points, secret police, purges, travel permissions and the like.

[Judgie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sabibaby', 'T')his is an interesting point but I wonder how many soldiers would turn their weapons on civilians? It really takes ALL soldiers being on the same page, just one soldier could disagree and toss a nade into a group of their own comrades (this has happened before.) I could imagine a rift developing between military units and law enforcement when their muzzles are turned toward fellow American’s and family members. Just how long could the military hold things together in all places in the US at the same time?

[BlisteredWhippet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Saibaby', 'T')his is an interesting point but I wonder how many soldiers would turn their weapons on civilians? It really takes ALL soldiers being on the same page, just one soldier could disagree and toss a nade into a group of their own comrades (this has happened before.)

[Judgie]

Whippet, would you please correct your post?, as I have been wrongly quoted. That is Sabibaby's work

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jellric', 'L')ike most here I forsee a period of tyranny but declining energy availability means the means of control will gradually decline along with it. The tyrants may be able to maintain control longer than many of us think but the good news is that many of us can reasonably expect we will probably live to see it collapse. I think their control will last a few decades at most. People can endure terrible conditions if they know they are temporary.

[gg3]

Bshirt, don't declare defeat before the real war even starts, unless you want a self-fulfilling prophesy.
The sane ones among us will defend the Constitution from all enemies foreign & domestic, whether or not we've sworn the oath & worn the uniform.

And anyone who thinks they'll manage to be part of the oligarchy after the poo hits the propeller, is welcome to hallucinate that they're already part of the present oligarchy right now.
Your best bet is to be part of the cultural majority in a tight-knit community, whether by way of intentional community, or by way of picking the right small town to settle into ASAP. And in the latter case, start subtly spreading stuff about self-reliance and relocalization, framing it so it fits into the current majority worldview and does not suggest a doomer attitude. And start collecting tools, of your own trade and of other useful trades.

[TheDude]

How much communications will break down to rises in fuel prices is what I'm wondering the most, the possibility that our grid could fail within a year without regular maintenance. Or will it have a bit of added robustness from a decline (enforced by law?) in use? And what kind of authority will be implemented just to insure that goods arrive to market? How do you guarantee that - or coordinate it from state? Stores will likely require a subsidy - what kind of resentment/corruption will that bring on?

The US is likely an artificial entity on more than one level - we require infrastructure to maintain cohesion, without we'd break back into component regions (9 regions, perhaps?). Perhaps that's been true since telegraphs and railroads began to firm up our grip on the continent.

We need politicians to address these matters now. Eastexas at the Oil Drum says we may have 50% decline in oil exports in five years. It's gonna sting - buy your bikes now!

[TheTurtle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', 'M')ilitary predates agriculture, I imagine.

[bshirt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'B')shirt, don't declare defeat before the real war even starts, unless you want a self-fulfilling prophesy.

[bshirt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m curious what these plans you say the military has to contend with diminishing fuel in an extreme (Catastrophic?) emergency.

[BlisteredWhippet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bshirt', 'I')'m a Navy vet and know that even their nuclear powered ships use enormous amounts of gas/oil (diesel and gas engines for endless things....bilge pumping, hydraulics, lubricants for reduction gears, etc) Of course, the carrier's fighters/bombers don't use nuclear engines.
As the downslope of PO gets steeper, the Navy's activities will grind down. Nuclear and conventional.

[Ludi]

Why speculate? Why not learn about anthropolgy?
Conflicts to re-establish territorial boundaries between hunter-gatherer groups shouldn't be equated with "war." As pointed out, war is a feature of civilization.
There are no "resource poor" hunter-gatherers, and their conflicts don't "defy rationality" but are very specific - to maintain territorial boundaries.

[deMolay]

It is all about the cost of Projecting Power. The same thing happened to the British Empire. When it costs more to Project Power than the State gets back in return. They are toast. The pack leader goes down and the pack turns on him.

[Ferretlover]

So, are you thinking about something similar to "Seven Days in May?" According to that scenario, the first things that would be taken over were all forms of public communication-television stations, radio stations, and newspapers.

[threadbear]

What's the difference between a tribal conflict where people kill each other, and a war? It's just a matter of wearing a uniform, instead of a penis cone, and hurling coconuts instead of grenades.
The noble savage attuned to nature is a stereotype. People enamoured with the idea of living a very basic life, should go live with South America's Yanomamo, or sit in a meadow and watch reruns of the Jerry Springer show:
The Yanomamo: "Violence among the Yanomami is often domestic, with women commonly beaten by their husbands in disputes. [6] Justifiably or not, their violent reputation has also seeped into popular culture. The food critic Jeffrey Steingarten characterized the Yanomami people as "a bunch of bloodthirsty maniacs," whimsically speculating that their purportedly brutal behavior might be attributed to a deficiency of table salt.[7]" wiki

[evilgenius]

The navy won't grind to a halt very quickly. The domestic oil supply of the US will remain large enough to support even a large navy. What will bring down the navy is the attrition brought about by war. When there just aren't the resources to build new boats the navy will either adopt a strike from a distance when possible (much like they do now but without hailing at less secure ports) or a pull back and see (if threatened with nuclear reprisal) posture. The only exceptions to this limited kind of engagement will be when the game is for all the marbles, like if the Russians overrun Georgia and head south.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'S')o, are you thinking about something similar to "Seven Days in May?" According to that scenario, the first things that would be taken over were all forms of public communication-television stations, radio stations, and newspapers.

[Ferretlover]

US plans to fight the Internet revealed - Looking Glass News by Adam Brookes BBC News A newly declassified document gives a fascinating glimpse into the US military’s plans for “information operations” - from psychological operations, to attacks on hostile computer networks Bloggers beware. As the world turns networked, the Pentagon is calculating the military opportunities that computer networks, wireless technologies and the modern media offer. From influencing public opinion through new media to designing “computer network attack” weapons, the US military is learning to fight an electronic war. The declassified document is called “Information Operations Roadmap“. It was obtained by the National Security Archive at George Washington University using the Freedom of Information Act. Officials in the Pentagon wrote it in 2003. The Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, signed it. The “roadmap” calls for a far-reaching overhaul of the military’s ability to conduct information operations and electronic warfare. And, in some detail, it makes recommendations for how the US armed forces should think about this new, virtual warfare. The document says that information is “critical to military success”. Computer and telecommunications networks are of vital operational importance.
Propaganda: The operations described in the document include a surprising range of military activities: public affairs officers who brief journalists, psychological operations troops who try to manipulate the thoughts and beliefs of an enemy, computer network attack specialists who seek to destroy enemy networks. All these are engaged in information operations. Perhaps the most startling aspect of the roadmap is its acknowledgement that information put out as part of the military’s psychological operations, or Psyops, is finding its way onto the computer and television screens of ordinary Americans. “Information intended for foreign audiences, including public diplomacy and Psyops, is increasingly consumed by our domestic audience,” it reads. “Psyops messages will often be replayed by the news media for much larger audiences, including the American public,” it goes on. The document’s authors acknowledge that American news media should not unwittingly broadcast military propaganda. “Specific boundaries should be established,” they write. But they don’t seem to explain how. “In this day and age it is impossible to prevent stories that are fed abroad as part of psychological operations propaganda from blowing back into the United States - even though they were directed abroad,” says Kristin Adair of the National Security Archive.
rest of the article

[TheDude]

Information Operations Roadmap.
The 50% decline in oil production we're possibly looking at in the next five years will rather put a damper on something as frivolous as the Internet. Sounds like the kind of chip-driven occupation the Neocons thought would subdue the Iraqis sans bullets and tanks.

[Ferretlover]

This whole thing is weird! It's as though I've been existing in a near-sighted fog, then sudenly things pop up, clear as the proverbial day...giving substance to theory.......