[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'I')t adds up to something like 200-250 new reactors. If we say that we only want to replace cars and light trucks and guesstimate they use half of all transportation oil it means 100-125 new reactors. Not a trivial effort, but very possible as China did twice that in the last three years, except with coal and hydro.

[Mesuge]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '
')I think you should also factor in battery replacement because they only last a year or two don't they before they need replacement? And we are talking about what, 200-500kg of batteries?

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LGW', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', 'o')ne gallon of gasoline is about 35,000 kilowatt hours I think, if I remember right.

[Tyler_JC]

Woah, woah, woah.

Hold your horses now.

Why do we have to replace ALL of our gasoline usage tomorrow?

Peak Oil is about a long term decline in oil supplies, not a sudden drop to 0.

In the 20 years it takes to cut our oil supplies in half (assuming we start declining immediately which is still an unknown), we could easily double the number of nuclear power plants we have.

Moreover, if 25% of the population carpools for at least half of their car -miles (hardly an impossible task), there goes a million or two barrels of oil per day in consumption without crimping into anyone's lifestyle.

And don't give me that tired line about how the drive-through window won't have enough customers and thus crash the economy. The Market will find new jobs for those people. Maybe in revitalized local manufacturing to replace inefficient long haul trucking?

[Judgie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'D')id I miss some sort of nuclear buildup? Or are we powering these PHEVs with oil, natgas, and, of course, good ol' coal?

Last I checked, those weren't available in the quantities needed domestically to replace the impact of crude oil.

[oilcanboyd]

Can you imagine for a minute, 32 degrees C outside, (89.6 F) and its 3:45pm Wednesday afternoon. The day shift comes home and plugs in thier hybrids, and then begins to startup the A/c in the house. now the tv has to go on and the puter too. then at around 6pm all is quiet and dark.

heavy investment in the ol grid and some RE to boot.
OCB

[shortonoil]

Tyler_JC said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the 20 years it takes to cut our oil supplies in half

[PolestaR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'A')nd don't give me that tired line about how the drive-through window won't have enough customers and thus crash the economy. The Market will find new jobs for those people. Maybe in revitalized local manufacturing to replace inefficient long haul trucking?

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Judgie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'D')id I miss some sort of nuclear buildup? Or are we powering these PHEVs with oil, natgas, and, of course, good ol' coal?

Last I checked, those weren't available in the quantities needed domestically to replace the impact of crude oil.

[JRP3]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oilcanboyd', 'C')an you imagine for a minute, 32 degrees C outside, (89.6 F) and its 3:45pm Wednesday afternoon. The day shift comes home and plugs in thier hybrids, and then begins to startup the A/c in the house. now the tv has to go on and the puter too. then at around 6pm all is quiet and dark.

heavy investment in the ol grid and some RE to boot.
OCB

[shortonoil]

PolestaR said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's tiring hearing the same cornucopian "back to the wall" speech of how the market will find solutions to everything, it limits your ability to even think about what you are saying.

[lawnchair]

The problem with the "nighttime rates" is as follows.

Lets say you have an electric car with 100 mile range.

Is Shmucketelli going to drive his car directly 40 miles to work, park it, and then drive 40 miles back, praying the last 15 miles every day that the range is really as good as advertised.

Hardly, He will instead take this an excuse to buy a house 70 miles from work and do some side-trips too. Then, he will demand car chargers in the parking lot at the firm. Lots of companies would oblige.

[PolestaR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lawnchair', 'T')he problem with the "nighttime rates" is as follows.

Lets say you have an electric car with 100 mile range.

Is Shmucketelli going to drive his car directly 40 miles to work, park it, and then drive 40 miles back, praying the last 15 miles every day that the range is really as good as advertised.

Hardly, He will instead take this an excuse to buy a house 70 miles from work and do some side-trips too. Then, he will demand car chargers in the parking lot at the firm. Lots of companies would oblige.

[xrotaryguy]

The US currently produces 4254 TWh per day.

These electric cars would need an additional 14 TWh per day.

So, we would need to produce 0.3% more electricity than we currently do.

We're not doomed.

Your numbers with all the zeros behind them are worthless if you do not put them in context, and they are pointless now that I have done that for you.

Get your own damn calculator!

[lawnchair]

The United States produced 4055 TWh in the entirety of 2005, not per day. That is 11.65 TWh per day.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricit ... s_sum.html

Might I suggest HP calculators next time?

[JRP3]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '
')
Until the cars get to a 200+ mile range though most people won't WANT to get them, having to work out how much they are going to drive that day is way too much for most people. So sure we can get these cars which do 100miles a day now reliably but with suburbia only ever going to increase in this "electrified car world", they will need to do about 200miles before people will really want to use them.

I know in some configurations with the best batteries some EVs are getting over 200miles, but yeah, the car would have to be something like what people are used to for acceptance.

[PolestaR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JRP3', 'I') disagree. We know that the average person drives less than 40 miles a day. We know with rising fuel prices people ARE looking for alternatives and they ARE willing to make compromises. More and more people are doing their own EV conversions with 30-40 mile range and are quite happy with them. Also, most families and many individuals have more than one vehicle, so a reasonably priced reasonably performing 100+mi ev has a market right now, even more so as gas prices cross the $5 mark.

[yesplease]

The grid can reasonably support ~200 million cars off-peak. But we won't see 200 million EVs for quite some time, maybe not ever. The point of an EV would be to minimize the cost of urban auto travel, both in terms of financial costs ($/mile) and health costs (AQ). The only downside is lack of range due to our lack of aerodynamic/light weight cars for conversions. That being said, a DIY'er could probably drop a few grand on a older Chevy Metro or similar and have an EV that'll go ~70-100 miles, or as far as the gas tank allows provided they wanted to use a small four stroke engine for longer highway trips. The cost would be a few cents per mile, which isn't the absolute lowest out there, but it's close. In order for a typical gasoline car to achieve that kind of mileage, it would have to b geared such that acceleration in the cruising gear/s would be near unpossible.

[Mesuge]

Again you tend to repeat several misconceptions about EVs, which have been corrected overhere several time already..

In fact, the real fuel cost of EVs is not the electricity but batteries, electricity is roughly only 1/6-1/10 of the price per km/mi. The major cost is the battery itself. Now, with the current technology NiMH/Li-ion/polymer the overall operational costs are similar per km/km with ICEs or slightly lower..

In terms of production costs, again, you can't compare new EV and new ICE at the dealership head to head unless you also acknowledge and explain to the customer that the price premium
for the EV consist largely of the stored fuel for several years which is bought upront, i.e. new traction battery pack installed in the car.

There are several independent and industry studies which clearly show $2.5-3-4 per gallon/EV in volume production (200,000pcs) can directly compete with ICEs no subsidies needed..

[lawnchair]

There is one other number that we need in figuring out the cost of EVs.

Gasoline is taxed to build roads. Roads are absolutely bogglingly expensive. In the US, average gas tax is 40-50 cents per gallon. That doesn't fully cover the cost of roads and streets (general revenue and indebtedness covers the rest) and the net condition of the nations roads and bridges is sinking (we haven't been paying enough to keep them maintained).

Electric vehicles save a lot of money by shirking their fair share of road taxation. If they gain in popularity at all, the situation will have to change.

Gas taxes averaged over the US fleet are from 3 to 4 cents per mile. Consider in your calculations adding another 8c/kWh (doubling the rate in some areas) to the electricity to pay for roads.