[OZ_DOC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OZ_DOC', 'w')hat frustrates me most about these threads is the polarity, why must we constantly argue powerdown/overshoot vs techno fixes. It seems so simplistic and purile to me. I think any sensible person can come to the conclusion that a combination of things will be needed to move forwards.

[Judgie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bioman', '
')You're trying to tell people that without oil there will be mass uncertainty, chaos, doom, war, food shortages, etc... and that hence increases in fertility rates are to be expected. But that's mere speculation. The reality is that there are countless alternatives to oil.

[Heineken]

The central event we face is dieoff driven by the convergent catastrophes, the course of which cannot be altered and which continue to accelerate. The whole technology debate is almost completely tangential to that. It's noise.

Even if a miraculous technology "cure" were invented, it's very unlikely that either the natural or economic capital would be available to exploit it. The world is bankrupt on both fronts.

[BastardSquad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bioman', '
')
Remember, Africa - the world's largest landmass with potential for arable land - has only begun to utilize its agricultural potential. We haven't seen anything yet.

Did you know the Green Revolution did not reach Africa. No wonder the UN's people over at the Millenium Goals profusely write about the Second Green Revolution, or Africa's Green Revolution. Vast potential there. Vast needs too.

[BastardSquad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bioman', ' ') Just trying to get at your psychology here.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bioman', '.')..In short, Peak Oil will occur somewhere around 2040, by then we have next generation biofuels and the era of plenty can finally begin.

[Bioman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rogozhin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut see, this is where you go wrong.

-You present people's need as static
-You present demand for resources as static
-You present access and availability of resources themselves as static (theoretically they aren't, man mines the Moon and beyond)

This is why the entire Peak Oil story is a myth.

This is not a static world. This is a dynamic world.

Europeans are eating less meat per capita. Best example.

[Windmills]

There are people here who were aware of that before this thread even began. He's previously been banned. Some already know his style of debate. I think they were just holding out some hope that he wouldn't stick to the same old tactics of assuming that humans have an infinite capability to solve problems (sounds a bit godlike), baseless assumptions and wild projections into the future, never before seen utopian levels of global cooperation and social organization, a complete lack of negative consequences to future technology (despite what history demonstrates), assuming totally responsible implementation and use of new technology, complete dismissal of the power over society of the lower functioning parts of the human brain, and circular and self-contradicting arguments.

Those who hoped have just seen such hopes terrible dashed.

[Bioman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rogozhin', '
')Our earth cannot support 9 billion people.
Rogo

[Bioman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OZ_DOC', 'w')hat frustrates me most about these threads is the polarity, why must we constantly argue powerdown/overshoot vs techno fixes. It seems so simplistic and purile to me. I think any sensible person can come to the conclusion that a combination of things will be needed to move forwards. On these forums my views would probably be derided as technocornucopian but in truth i absolutely feel we have overshot, i absolutely feel we need population declines and i absolutely feel we need to powerdown to probably on the order of 20-40% of current consumption per capita (remember this is in addition to population declines on the order of 50% to 3 billion or so) which would result in a net nergy consumption stable at around 10-20% of current levels.

NOW, having said that, my techno side comes in, i think that biofuels and solar and wind and hydro and wave and tidal and geothermic are all components that will be massive contributors to our energy supply once at levels around 10-20% of current. Currently around 6% of total US Energy comes from renewables, with a significant population ddecrease and significant powerdown to around 20% of current levels then that contribution becomes enormous.

[MonteQuest]

Yes, troll alert.

[Bioman]

In conclusion: synthetic biology is just one of the many science and tech fields that will open the era of plenty.

[SevenTen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bioman', 'I')n conclusion: synthetic biology is just one of the many science and tech fields that will open the era of plenty.

[shortonoil]

After the SHTF, watch the Biomen of the world; they are ones who will be able to justify cutting your throat in the middle of night, so that they can steal your tomato plants.

[OnceFueled]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'A')fter the SHTF, watch the Biomen of the world; they are ones who will be able to justify cutting your throat in the middle of night, so that they can steal your tomato plants.

[Bioman]

ok.

[eric_b]

Cute, but how is this relevant to 'current energy news'?

[BlisteredWhippet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bioman', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')You ask for sources?

The end of world population growth

Lutz, W., Sanderson, W., Scherbov, S. 2001. The end of world population growth. Nature 412:543-545.
Reprinted as RR-01-12 by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

Or just check the UN Population division's frequently updated projections.


"Overshoot" is an ideological idea, a fantasy - an interesting fantasy, no doubt, but still a figment of the mind.

[BlisteredWhippet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Half the world living in utter deprivation

The world's three richest people together own assets that exceed the combined gross domestic product of the 48 least developed countries. Meanwhile, almost 3 billion people live on less than $2 a day, totally excluded from the 20th century's boom in the consumption of goods and services. Too many people thus live in utter deprivation, the result, in part, of warped spending priorities at national and international level. Several African countries, for example, have to spend far more on debt service than on health and education.

World wide, 841 million people are malnourished. In sub-Saharan Africa, the only world region not to have seen a steady decline in malnutrition in the last three decades, the number of under-nourished more than doubled from 103 mn in 1970 to 215 mn in 1990. With a sliver of an increase from 2,225 to 2,237 between 1970 and 1995, the average daily calorie intake in the region remains below the minimum requirement of 2,300. In developing countries as a whole, the average intake rose from 2,131 to 2,572 calories.

More than a billion people live in inadequate shelter, without piped water, electricity or roads. Between 30 and 60 per cent of people in developing countries live in illegal settlements, and around 100 million people are homeless.

1.3 billion people (or 30 per cent of the population of developing countries, including 48 per cent of sub-Saharan Africans) have no access to safe water.

48 per cent of sub-Saharan Africans (and 880 million people world wide) do not have access to health services. The region has the highest under-five mortality rate in the world, and almost one in three of its people die before age 40.

There are 885 million illiterate adults world wide, and 109 million of the world's primary-school-age children (22 per cent of the total number) are out of school. In sub-Saharan Africa, one out of three children does not reach grade 5, and 42 per cent of adults are illiterate.

2.6 billion people (nearly 60 per cent of the population of developing countries, including 55 per cent of sub-Saharan Africans) do not have basic sanitation.

Africa lost 4 mn hectares of forest in the 1980s, while 494 mn hectares of soil has been degraded in sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s. The world loses every year $42 bn of income due to desertification, of which Africa's loss is $9 bn.

Due to the lack of easy access to water, fuel and transport, rural women in developing countries spend six to eight hours a day fetching firewood and water.

-http://www.un.org/ecosocdev/geninfo/afrec/subjindx/122undp.htm

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', 'H')eres the fucking light: Birth is illegal without a ticket. Tickets are dispensed first come, first served. Tickets are given to everyone in the 60-XX age brackets. Upon death, a ticket is released to the first one on the list. Then the woman can have a baby.

Therefore the net DEATH RATE never exceeds the BIRTH RATE resulting in ZERO POPULATION GROWTH.

PROBLEM SOLVED- BY ME, SUNDAY, JULY 1ST, 2007, 10:21 PST.