[Geko45]

Just to give a visual reference to the discussion. The 1 yr moving average sure looks just about completely flat with the polynomial trend line (order 4) indicating a drop in 2008. Please, no grief about the trend line, I know it's not scientific.

Click image for larger version.

[Dan1195]

Do these numbers include deepwater oil? ASPO numbers w/deepwater give the peak in 2011? Seems like some people are giving the peak of reg. oil only while others include all petroleum with this not being clearly specified.

IMHO we may technically be able to produde a bit more oil for a few years, but no point if we can't refine it.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dan1195', 'D')o these numbers include deepwater oil? ASPO numbers w/deepwater give the peak in 2011? Seems like some people are giving the peak of reg. oil only while others include all petroleum with this not being clearly specified.

[Dan1195]

Yes, I can clearly see you point. What makes that decline different than any in the past is that there is no significant restriction of supply, the economy is not in recession and prices are already high. To this point we have avoided serious effects due to a combiniation to things:

a) Existing stockpiles.

b) demand destruction in the third world.

c) reallocation of imports when necessary.

As we all know here, this cannot continue for long until TSHTF, that is gas shortages appear in the US and other countries and/or the economy really tanks. Later this summer be a close call as far as gas is concerned.

[eXpat]

And in the meantime demand is estimated to reach 85.4 mln barrels a day in 2007 link

[shady28]

Other than the trendline, I think Geko has it right.

Peak oil is basically now - not meaning 2007, but somewhere within this moving 10 year period.

Keep in mind that oil has been produced for a long long time. It shouldn't be suprising that peak oil would be a process lasting years. My guess is that it's been going on for at least 2 years now, as Geko's chart implies.

Some years ago many groups placed the peak oil event in the 2006-2009 time frame, most opting for 2007 / 2008. I think those estimates are turning out to be essentially true.

The thing peak oilers always forget is the self adjusting economic factor. This will not save the economy or prevent peak oil, but it will put a major damper on demand as prices increase - possibly causing demand to drop faster than production.

The economic fallout will wind up masking peak oil, with *regional* economic growth primarily coming from increases in efficiency as well as weaker hands in the global economy 'folding' and ceasing to consume (leaving more for the stronger players to consume). *REAL* Global economic growth is already flat to negative - this is growth after adjusting for inflation. Strong hands such as the US, China, some of Europe and Asia, will continue to grow their economies - for a while.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geko45', 'J')ust to give a visual reference to the discussion. The 1 yr moving average sure looks just about completely flat with the polynomial trend line (order 4) indicating a drop in 2008. Please, no grief about the trend line, I know it's not scientific.

Click image for larger version.

[Cynus]

There has been suspicion that light sweet has peaked in the PO community, but as far as I know there hasn't been any good statistics on it. Well I was just looking at the ENI World Oil and Gas Review 2007 and there is a table that breaks down worldwide production by quality. It's located at:
http://www.eni.it/wogr_2007/oil_product ... rld-18.htm

From the chart you can see that light sweet peaked in 1997 at 1.285 mbpd.

[Bas]

Nice table Cynus. I guess it's all about definitions again though; if you count ultra light as light sweet, you get close to the 1997 production. As a whole we can say though that the percentage of heavy and sour is slowly growing as a % of total production.

PS hey, you can download this as an excel spreadsheet; would anybody be so kind to produce some interesting graphs using that?

PS2 they have some themselves actually; this one shows how slow the shift to sour/heavy is going at the moment, which is very slow: