[Bas]

still worth some more votes

[skyemoor]

Needed another selection called "perhaps".

[Plantagenet]

I saw Dr. Deffeyes speak here in Alaska in late 2005. He said then that he thought the peak had just passed. I didn't take him seriously then, but I do now.

About 2005-6 for PO seems about right, given the huge jump in prices that occurred and the surprisingly rapid collapse of the Mexico Supergiant "Calderon" oil field, one of the 10 largest on earth.

[Plantagenet]

Ooops. Sorry....Cantarell is the giant oilfield in Mexico that has gone into a rapid production decline.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-p ... 1907.story

Now Mexico is definitely past their production peak.

[AFO]

Why are you guys limiting peak oil to a specific year.

I really think peal oil should be measured based on mutiples of 5% depletion levels. In other words instead of 1 year as unit, 5% depletion rate should be the unit of measurement for peak oil.

Once we reach to 10% depletion level from the peak production, then we can conclude that peak has occured.

Can someone do a graph based on these criterias.

[Twilight]

While peak oil can only be verified retrospectively, it can indeed be tied to a specific year. In fact, to a specific month within a specific year. The conclusion of an increasing number of observers is that 2006 will turn out to be the year the world peaked. We should be 10% down in production within 5 years, however, it will be pretty obvious a lot earlier than that. Probably by 2010 or so, when the decline trend reveals itself and predictions can be based on projects entering production. At that stage the focus will shift from estimating peak, to calculating production decline rates, later to actual energy yield.

[lady-t]

i voted no because i think it really happened in 2005, later in the year, we just didn't see bad things til 06

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lady-t', 'i') voted no because i think it really happened in 2005, later in the year, we just didn't see bad things til 06

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lady-t', 'i') voted no because i think it really happened in 2005, later in the year, we just didn't see bad things til 06

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lady-t', 'i') voted no because i think it really happened in 2005, later in the year, we just didn't see bad things til 06

[lexicon]

The Century of Roots
A.M Samsam Bakhtiari, website
...I seriously believe that the peaking of the global production of crude oil --- commonly know as 'Peak Oil' --- has occurred in 2006 [1] and will be 'The Event' bound to dominate the history of the 21st century: one of those 'Historical Inflection Points' [2] which abruptly change "fundamentals" in the course of World History...

After some 147 years of almost uninterrupted supply growth to a record output of some 81-82 million barrels/day [mb/d] in the summer of 2006, crude oil production has since entered its irreversible decline. This exceptional reversal alters the energy supply equation upon which life on our planet is based. It will come to place pressure upon the use of all other sources of energy --- be it natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and all types of sundry renewables especially biofuels. It will eventually come to affect everything else under the sun…

...most probably, the popular masses will be directly exposed to two main types of shock:
1. A Material Shock;
2. A Psychological Shock.

Due to the benign decline gradient in crude oil production during the early 'Post Peak' period --- only 3 mb/d over the first transition period spanning 2007 to 2010 --- the Material Shock will not pose insoluble problems and accommodation will prove possible with minimal gradual pain. Moreover, sizeable amounts of wastage in most developed societies will provide a welcome cushion for the initial cuts to be made.

Not so for the Psychological Shock. This shock, in stark contrast, will be electric and abrupt. Stress, fear, depression, despairs and nightmares will be the order of the day --- as people come to face the not-so-palatable facets of 'Post Peak'. When confronted with this series of unknowns, with the trauma of Change, people will try to protect themselves by automatically reverting to their past, to the known, to what they believe to be "real and true" --- in a word, to their reassuring 'Roots'…

more...

http://www.energybulletin.net/28895.html

[Fredrik]

So mr. Bakhtiari says:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lexicon', ' ')Due to the benign decline gradient in crude oil production during the early 'Post Peak' period --- only 3 mb/d over the first transition period spanning 2007 to 2010 --- the Material Shock will not pose insoluble problems and accommodation will prove possible with minimal gradual pain.

[27010]

I didn't vote at all as this whole poll is completely pointless.

World oil will peak at some point, be it in the past, now, or in the future.

Voting for a date wont change that, its just pointless rubbish.

[lexicon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fredrik', 'S')o mr. Bakhtiari says:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lexicon', ' ')Due to the benign decline gradient in crude oil production during the early 'Post Peak' period --- only 3 mb/d over the first transition period spanning 2007 to 2010 --- the Material Shock will not pose insoluble problems and accommodation will prove possible with minimal gradual pain.

[DesertBear2]

I wouldn't worry about the psychological shock.

Boobus Americanus will rationalize even the highest energy prices. It will be widely promoted by Rush Limbaugh and the rest of the right wing chorus that it is only temporary and cause by a bunch of liberals.

Then they will give the Amercan masses a few figures to focus their hatred on(Hillary?)- just like they have been trained to do by the talk radio crowd.

Eventually the truth will sink in....

[LateGreatPlanetEarth]

i would say that the expert mean avg is year 2010, and that's my prediction.

[Mircea]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')specially given the GAO report.

[Revi]

Here's a very dark, but what may be a good estimate of when TSHTF in Life After the Oil Crash:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mircea', 'T')he definition I use is 4 continuous months where world demand exceeds world production, absent any anomalies, and from that point on, world production never meets world demand.

Figure about 2030 +/- 5 years.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mircea', ' ')The definition I use is 4 continuous months where world demand exceeds world production, absent any anomalies, and from that point on, world production never meets world demand.