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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Trader's Corner 2006

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Where will the price of WTIC oil be on December 29, 2006?

Less than $50
3
No votes
Around $55
4
No votes
Around $60
7
No votes
Around $65
15
No votes
Around $70
58
No votes
More than $80
101
No votes
 
Total votes : 188

For the record...

Unread postby SpamFighter999 » Tue 26 Jun 2007, 03:29:38

I came across the following reply to a Felix Salmon who Miki quotes in response to GDP #s from that SafeHaven article on China.

"Dear Felix: Thank you very much for taking the time to read our article and formulate a comment on it. As far as our statement on the size of the economy of China, the supporting facts come from two sources. One is the Bank of Nova Scotia which accounts for PPP adjustments; the other is the World Bank based on China's output. This WB ranking method measures gross national income converted into dollars using the "Atlas" method of currency conversion. While you are correct on absolute numbers, the above statistics shed light on the new perspective with the dangers and the advantages that come with it." Written by Davide Accomazzo on 2006-10-10 17:24:37

Further research shows that Financial Times articles from around that time additionally supports the data presented in the referenced Safehaven article. Specifics on the source data references will be provided upon request.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-5877.htm

IMHO, if there is a question as to the veracity of data the finger should first be pointed at those banks' white papers and mainstream financial media, not on a Safehaven author who used that same data to support certain ideas. Again IMHO, the myopic focus on the GDP #s misses the generalized yet interesting ideas contained in the article.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'A')ahh. Old Ludwig Van....

MrBill - what are your thoughts on massive shorting/price surpression conspiracies?

Perhaps slightly off the topic but the following article in Safehaven.com showing how JPM increased their derivat positions with 5Trillion in one quarter and that was the same time Natgas started tanking. Wonder if that is was a coincidence?
Safehaven

End of work now so I will go home and read this carefully again.
Could hardly believe my eyes when I saw the full derivate business figures. Talk about weapons of financial mass destruction. I had no idea it was this big.


Micki, just stumbled across this post also questioning some of SAfe Haven's posts for what it is worth?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow big is China?
Felix Salmon | Sep 13, 2006
Safe Haven today:

The situation in China reflects a global economic landscape that has undergone a seismic shift in the last decade, and is echoed by the fact that the combined economies of China and India are now greater than the United States.

Nominal GDP figures from the World Bank:

China $1,955.3 bn
India $731.0 bn
United States $12,408.5 bn


So "greater than" now means "about one fifth the size of"?

Presumably Safe Haven's Davide Accomazzo is thinking in PPP terms or something along those lines. But you can't monetize PPP. China might be at the forefront of everybody's mind, but its GDP is still smaller than that of France.

Statistics and Data Revision in China

How big is China?
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SpamFighter999
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