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THE S*** Hits the Fan (TSHTF) Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby Ebyss » Wed 09 May 2007, 16:43:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e are NOT acting like an aggressive occupier right now in Iraq.

What are you doing there? What would happen if a democratic Iraq decided to trade in Petroeuros and refused to sell to the US?
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 09 May 2007, 16:51:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e are NOT acting like an aggressive occupier right now in Iraq.
What are you doing there? What would happen if a democratic Iraq decided to trade in Petroeuros and refused to sell to the US?

I have no freaking clue what we would do. Fortunately, there never will be a stable democratic Iraq. The civil war will NEVER END and the "parliament" of Iraq WILL FALL APART. Their society is not ready for democracy and as far as I'm concerned, NEVER WILL BE. We are wasting our time, money, and soldiers in that country and we never should have bothered them in the first place.

In terms of global public opinion, America is in a very difficult position right now in Iraq. Personally, I think we should bring the troops home as soon as humanly possible and let the Iraqis duel it out themselves. The sooner Iran/Saudi Arabia take over that country and partition it along ethnic lines, the better.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby Joe0Bloggs » Wed 09 May 2007, 21:03:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'C')onsider the fact the quagmire may be intentional.

Well then perhaps Bush Jr. will be remembered as a great peacemaker. (pity about all the dead Iraqis though...)
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby threadbear » Wed 09 May 2007, 21:38:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e are NOT acting like an aggressive occupier right now in Iraq.
What are you doing there? What would happen if a democratic Iraq decided to trade in Petroeuros and refused to sell to the US?
I have no freaking clue what we would do. Fortunately, there never will be a stable democratic Iraq. The civil war will NEVER END and the "parliament" of Iraq WILL FALL APART. Their society is not ready for democracy and as far as I'm concerned, NEVER WILL BE. We are wasting our time, money, and soldiers in that country and we never should have bothered them in the first place.
In terms of global public opinion, America is in a very difficult position right now in Iraq. Personally, I think we should bring the troops home as soon as humanly possible and let the Iraqis duel it out themselves. The sooner Iran/Saudi Arabia take over that country and partition it along ethnic lines, the better.

No, Tyler. They were promised a democracy and that's what they want. That means majority rule, so the Shias are going to try to kill the Sunnis, who have actually enticed them with staged events provided by their Saudi/US friends. The promise of democracy is the promise of mob rule and potential genocide for weaker parties.

Negroponte's appointment as ambassador a few years ago, signified the Salvador solution was going to be employed in that area. The agent provocateurs would create incidents, death squads, and keep the entire area embroiled for the benefit of US, Israel, and their Arab buddies, like Saudi Arabia.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby Ebyss » Wed 09 May 2007, 21:40:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'P')ersonally, I think we should bring the troops home as soon as humanly possible and let the Iraqis duel it out themselves.

But that's what you did last time, and boy - was that ever a f*ck up. Making sure that didn't happen this time around was supposed to be an integral part of the plan - i.e. America will stay in Iraq for as long as it takes to ensure a stable/peaceful regime (forever? until the oil is gone? who knows?). If the troops are brought home one nanosecond before this has been established, then America has reneged on the deal - would it care? Doubt it. Would the rest of the world care? Yep. Would that matter? Probably not. :/ If America did pull out early, you can be damned sure they'd never see a drop of that oil. No, I think you guys are stuck now.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he sooner Iran/Saudi Arabia take over that country and partition it along ethnic lines, the better.

Lol, yes, they would handle the situation far better I would think.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 09 May 2007, 22:50:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'P')ersonally, I think we should bring the troops home as soon as humanly possible and let the Iraqis duel it out themselves.
But that's what you did last time, and boy - was that ever a f*ck up. Making sure that didn't happen this time around was supposed to be an integral part of the plan - i.e. America will stay in Iraq for as long as it takes to ensure a stable/peaceful regime (forever? until the oil is gone? who knows?). If the troops are brought home one nanosecond before this has been established, then America has reneged on the deal - would it care? Doubt it. Would the rest of the world care? Yep. Would that matter? Probably not. :/ If America did pull out early, you can be damned sure they'd never see a drop of that oil. No, I think you guys are stuck now.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he sooner Iran/Saudi Arabia take over that country and partition it along ethnic lines, the better.
Lol, yes, they would handle the situation far better I would think.

What do you mean, "that was a f*ck up?" My mother has a tourbook for Vietnam, she wants to go there next summer. They are becoming more capitalistic every day.

The free market economy of Vietnam is booming! Their economy grew by 8% in 2006! Unemployment in that country is under 2% and individual income levels are rising. Foreign direct investment into Vietnam is 2x the level of foreign direct investment in India. I think it worked out just fine.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby Revi » Wed 09 May 2007, 23:14:08

I have felt for a long time that 2008 is when TSHTF. I hope we are prepared for what's coming. I liked peak oil much more when it was just an academic exercise. I plan on doing the following:

Taking care of as many health care woes as possible while we still have health insurance.

Cutting our use of utilities as much as possible to make it possible to keep ourselves afloat financially.

Adopting a one day at a time philosophy and not let things bug me that I can't change.

Try to let a few people know so that they can start to prepare for what's coming.

Hang on and batten down the hatches, because it's going to get nasty out there sooner than we think.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby bshirt » Wed 09 May 2007, 23:20:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'S')ome info for our foreign guests who visit this site. Saloons are more commonly called bars in America. Alcohol is considered to be a contributer to social disorder much like tobacco and firearms. It is NOT a place for innocent fun no more so is a casino. If you visit America you'll notice alcohol can be very pricey. The government imposes a very heavy tax on alcohol and this is considered justified because of all the "trouble" that alcohol causes to society. Yes America is a different country!
BTW getting really off topic we even have a "specialized" police agency called the bureau of alcohol tobacco and firearms (ATF). Contrary to what the name implies they do not specialize in Alcohol or Tobacco :roll: So what do they do? Lets put it this way: When YOU need help you call the police. When the POLICE needs help they call these people in.

What a crock of shit. To people like you, "social disorder" is the behavior of anybody who doesn't worship at the "politically correct" alter. I'll most gladly take vitually any bar for fun, good converstaion and downright enjoyable human behavior and interaction than wherever wimps like you congregate.

Lastly, and so appropriately, your hero's like the ATF are simply murderous thugs who have sold their souls for a steady paycheck and daily kill and imprison folks against all their constitutional rights.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby Sheb » Thu 10 May 2007, 01:58:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bshirt', 'L')astly, and so appropriately, your hero's like the ATF are simply murderous thugs who have sold their souls for a steady paycheck and daily kill and imprison folks against all their constitutional rights.

Speaking of which...we have gov-types of all flavors (military officers, police/sherrifs...) We gotta have a few BATF officers; Hate to draw you into the line of fire...but if you are there, what kind of role do you see the BATF--and treasury dept in general--taking in time of an economic melt down? Hey, I give the buzz from the Navy viewpoint whenever appropriate, and JATO from the PD/SD viewpoint--give us a hand here :)
Whew...gotta love the 1st Ammdt. Almost as much as the 2nd. And yes, it is sacred, at least to one whose oath of office is to uphold and defend the Constitution.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby Ebyss » Thu 10 May 2007, 09:23:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')hat do you mean, "that was a f*ck up?"My mother has a tourbook for Vietnam, she wants to go there next summer. They are becoming more capitalistic every day. The free market economy of Vietnam is booming! Their economy grew by 8% in 2006! Unemployment in that country is under 2% and individual income levels are rising. Foreign direct investment into Vietnam is 2x the level of foreign direct investment in India. I think it worked out just fine.

Lol - I was talking about Iraq the first time around, don't know where you got Vietnam from what I said.. unless you have reason to believe something in my words does apply there. ;) But that's a different topic.

What I was referring to was the fact that the US pulled out of Iraq the first time without getting the job done, and now they have to go back and fix the mess they made. Had they done it right the first time, they simply wouldn't be in this position now. They can't just walk in, obliterate a country, incite anarchy and then leave the place in a mess - especially as the war was clearly unjustified (where are the WMD's? What had Saddam to do with Osama? With 911? The links are tenuous at best). Basically, that's what I was talking about when I said "f*ck up".
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey are becoming more capitalistic every day.

In the PO aftermath, Vietnam may indeed find that their move towards capitalism was indeed a f*ck up, and they have America to thank for it, as you say... :/
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby TWilliam » Thu 10 May 2007, 12:17:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', 'I') was talking about Iraq the first time around

The "first time around" for Iraq would actually be during WWI, when the British conquered what was then the Ottoman Empire, and along with France began the partitioning that lead to the development of the modern Middle East.

European Domination $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n 1914 Enver Bey's alliance with Germany led the Young Turks into the fatal step of joining Germany and Austria-Hungary in World War I, against Britain and France. The British saw the Ottomans as the weak link in the enemy alliance, and concentrated on knocking them out of the war. When a direct assault failed at Gallipoli in 1915, they turned to fomenting revolution in the Ottoman domains, exploiting the awakening force of Arab nationalism. The Arabs had lived more or less happily under Ottoman rule for 400 years, until the Young Turks had tried to "Turkicise" them and change their traditional system of government. The British found an ally in Sherif Hussein ibn Ali, the hereditary ruler of Mecca (and believed by Muslims to be a descendant of the family of the Prophet Muhammad), who led an Arab Revolt against Ottoman rule, having received a promise of Arab independence in exchange.

But when the Ottoman Empire collapsed in 1918, the Arabs found they had been betrayed, indeed doubly betrayed. For not only had the British and the French concluded a secret treaty (the Sykes-Picot Agreement), to partition the Middle East between them, but the British had also promised via the Balfour Declaration the international Zionist movement their support in creating a Jewish homeland in Palestine, which was the site of the ancient Kingdom of Israel but had had a largely Arab population for over a thousand years. When the Ottomans departed, the Arabs proclaimed an independent state in Damascus, but were too weak, militarily and economically, to resist the European powers for long, and Britain and France soon established control and re-arranged the Middle East to suit themselves.

Note the comment I highlighted. This is the the main source of the ongoing strife in the Middle East, and it was instigated by the British, not the U.S.
Later, $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he departure of the European powers from direct control of the region, the establishment of Israel, and the increasing importance of the oil industry, marked the creation of the modern Middle East. These developments led to a growing presence of the United States in Middle East affairs. The U.S. was the ultimate guarantor of the stability of the region, and from the 1950s the dominant force in the oil industry. When republican revolutions brought radical anti-western regimes to power in Egypt in 1954, in Syria in 1963, in Iraq in 1968 and in Libya in 1969, the Soviet Union, seeking to open a new arena of the Cold War in the Middle East, allied itself with Arab rulers such as Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt and Saddam Hussein of Iraq. These regimes gained popular support through their promises to destroy the state of Israel, defeat the U.S. and other "western imperialists," and to bring prosperity to the Arab masses. When they failed to deliver on their promises, they became increasingly despotic.

In response to this challenge to its interests in the region, the U.S. felt obliged to defend its remaining allies, the conservative monarchies of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iran and the Persian Gulf emirates, whose methods of rule were almost as unattractive to western eyes as those of the anti-western regimes. Iran in particular became a key U.S. ally, until a revolution led by the Shi'a clergy overthrew the monarchy in 1979 and established a theocratic regime which was even more anti-western than the secular regimes in Iraq or Syria. This forced the U.S. into a close alliance with Saudi Arabia, a reactionary, corrupt and oppressive monarchy, and a regime, moreover, dedicated to the destruction of Israel. The list of Arab-Israeli wars includes a great number of major wars such as 1948 Arab-Israeli War, 1956 Suez War, 1967 Six Day War, 1970 War of Attrition, 1973 Yom Kippur War, 1982 Lebanon War, as well as a number of lesser conflicts.

Yes, the U.S. has had to play cop in the Middle East for an extended period of time, but only because of the mess that Europe left behind...
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby Twilight » Thu 10 May 2007, 13:16:59

Ebyss, I really wouldn't rue the "lost opportunity" of 1991.

You would have found yourself in the same mess, with a less well equipped army, better equipped insurgents, not a shred of counterinsurgency experience (Afghanistan was useful for something) or preparation, and a recession at home from Day 1. Oh, and no international support, not even from the Europeans, because the 1991 coalition was based on a UN mandate.

You should be thanking your deity of choice you didn't try it in 1991.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby Ebyss » Thu 10 May 2007, 14:14:28

Hey - I wouldn't have tried it at all. I don't know where the "you" comes from, I'm Irish, living in Ireland. I was pointing out that removal of the troops at this stage would leave Iraq in a bigger mess than ever. And for what it's worth - my opinion is that America shouldn't be there in the first place.

I wasn't "rueing" anything, I was trying to clarify that America f*cked up things then, just as they're f*cking things up now (I mean for the Iraqi people, life with Saddam when America left the first time around wasn't exactly sunshine and lollipops) - but like someone else said, the quagmire could be intentional, which really has to suck if you're an Iraqi. How long do they want to drag this out for?

And yeah, I'm well aware that the Great British Empire started this, don't go dragging all of Europe into it. And lets not pretend that America doesn't love the position it finds itself in - there's a lot of oil in them there dunes.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Thu 10 May 2007, 16:05:36

Oh, hahaha. I thought you were talking about Vietnam...nevermind. As for Iraq in '91. The arrangement we made with Saddam after the war worked extremely well. Iraq never bothered anyone again and never produced any more WMDs. We won! Too bad nobody told George.
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Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Thu 10 May 2007, 19:12:03

Why so soon? There is a great deal of asset inertia, particularly in the US. Also, don't forget, in addition to the upcoming mini-glut in oil due to increased production in the ME, off the west coast of Africa, the GoM, the Caspian Region, etc, the tropics can be converted to a great bio-fuel plantation with sugar cane in Brazil, Palm Oil in Indonesia, etc, with EROIs of up to 6. Yep, nothing to worry about.
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Re: What are you expecting when TSHTF?

Unread postby bodigami » Sat 12 May 2007, 23:58:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ironborne', 'A')s everyone else has already said, We are already there. (...)


I'm not so sure. IMO SHTF includes a die-off
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What do to for entertainment when TSHTF

Unread postby MattSavinar » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 18:39:17

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Arc ... tshtf.html
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Re: What do to for entertainment when TSHTF

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 19:01:01

I know I am a fuddy duddy, but reading will replace a lot of the spare time kids spend now on electronics, if things get that bad.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: What do to for entertainment when TSHTF

Unread postby Pops » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 19:14:51

Funny about how most of Matt’s posts include a link to his site.

But in response to the question, the first thing that comes to mind:

Watch lawyers do the Nyphong dance?
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Re: What do to for entertainment when TSHTF

Unread postby MattSavinar » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 19:23:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'F')unny about how most of Matt’s posts include a link to his site.

But in response to the question, the first thing that comes to mind:

Watch lawyers do the Nyphong dance?


I've made almost 1700 posts this to this forum. How many of them have included links to LATOC? I'd guess less than 10.

That's about 1/2 of 1 percent. Not exactly "all."

And if you remember, LATOC has PO.com in it's navigation bar for about a year. so anybody who wanted to discuss this stuff at LATOC was redirected to PO.com. In other words the ratio of traffic directed from LATOC to PO.com to the traffic directed from PO.com to LATOC by yours truly probably 1,000 to 1, not not greater.
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