THE Resource Wars Thread (merged)

by **pilferage** » Thu 06 Jan 2005, 15:05:43

I agree completely with what you're getting at americandream. I don't think it's strictly planned out persay, but I do think that so long as we stay put militarily the rest of the world will lets us subjigate Iraq and Afghanistan because we're developing the fossil fuel resources (or developing transportation infrastructure fo said resources) in those countries.
Of course just to be on the safe side everyone's gearing up their submarine fleet too. :roll:

Kinda like we're all globally helping to develop these resources with our left hand while our right hands are inching torwards our pistols. :lol:

by **Kingcoal** » Thu 06 Jan 2005, 20:11:31

The Iraq war was a message to oil producing countries: "Be friendly to the USA and it's allies (read BP) or else." "Oh yeah, lest I forget, DO NOT TRADE OIL IN EUROS."

I don't think that these oil wars are to secure supply for the US and it's allies, but rather to make sure that oil remains a freely traded (in $US) commodity and not hoarded to be used as an economic weapon. In other words, someone like Hussein in Iraq could say to China and India, "I'll sell you oil for a discount if you give me lots of weapons and just generally be a pain in the ass of America." With oil freely traded, the peak oil shocks should be severe, but linear.

If Empire Building and Nation Building were easy, everyone would be doing it. Being of English descent, I'm surprised GWB didn't learn anything from the later experiences of the British Empire. Occupying countries makes you hated, no mater how nice and polite you are!

by **BILL_THA_PHARMACIZT** » Fri 07 Jan 2005, 02:25:48

This post made me crack the fuck up.

If your looking through benevolent child like eyes - nothing in this world makes sense.

Georgoe Bush/Dick Cheny isn't securing oil to have economic "growth" to benifit the average person in america .....

there securing oil so that the loop of people he's apart of can make money and retain power....

by **Permanently_Baffled** » Fri 07 Jan 2005, 06:26:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BILL_THA_PHARMACIZT', 'T')his post made me crack the fuck up.

If your looking through benevolent child like eyes - nothing in this world makes sense.

George Bush/Dick Cheny isn't securing oil to have economic "growth" to benifit the average person in america .....

there securing oil so that the loop of people he's apart of can make money and retain power....

by **Kingcoal** » Fri 07 Jan 2005, 12:34:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BILL_THA_PHARMACIZT', 'T')his post made me crack the fuck up.

If your looking through benevolent child like eyes - nothing in this world makes sense.

Georgoe Bush/Dick Cheny isn't securing oil to have economic "growth" to benifit the average person in america .....

there securing oil so that the loop of people he's apart of can make money and retain power....

by **PenultimateManStanding** » Sat 08 Jan 2005, 03:26:18

One thing worth noting at least: it has become axiomatic that we are not fighting a war against terrorism. That is not axiomatic for the world at large. We assume it to be a resource war, but it was never declared such by any but cynics, conspiracy-mongers, and PeakOilers! Wait and see PB, perhaps next year everything will seem different. If, twelve months from now Iraq is stable and pumping oil at new higher rates, then this particular discussion will be moot.

by **stu** » Sun 09 Jan 2005, 11:00:46

I think a key theme here is whether or not wars will be fought over resources whilst in the midst of a global recession. Wars cost money so therefore how it is possible to fight a war when you can barely afford to financially run one?

I personally don't think that a global recession will lead to a total economic crash in the beginning. I kind of envision a world that is at war over resources with most efforts of the countries involved going into fighting the war. Maybe it will be like WWII. Lots of the population will have to serve in the military due to the Draft (US) or National Service (UK). The economies of these countries will then become war based with the majority of jobs going towards providing resources for these conflicts- uniforms, guns, tanks bullets etc.

How will all of this be funded? As long as some of the oil is still flowing then maybe that will help fund it. Personally I view a kind of bartering system amongst nations that are allied with each other. (I'll swap 50 tanks for 5 planes etc). I'm not an economics expert so I can only guess.

I cannot see any alternative to resource wars. PB's point about invading oil rich countries only worsens the supply seems logical. However if the draft comes back and the US economy becomes war based then I can imagine that there will be a hell of a lot more sodiers, ships and tanks to guard the supply of oil from the wells, to the tankers, to the refineries.

by **Permanently_Baffled** » Sun 09 Jan 2005, 12:37:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stu', '
')I cannot see any alternative to resource wars. PB's point about invading oil rich countries only worsens the supply seems logical. However if the draft comes back and the US economy becomes war based then I can imagine that there will be a hell of a lot more sodiers, ships and tanks to guard the supply of oil from the wells, to the tankers, to the refineries.

by **Permanently_Baffled** » Sun 09 Jan 2005, 12:45:14

One more point, how do you go to war with depletion?

Even if the US secures all of the world supplies, without any production interruptions the US demand for oil would still exceed supply by 2037!!

This is a simple bit of analysis, by me, a self confessed jelly brain. Surely someone will point this out to someone in power !

The above assumes growth in demand in the US of 2% per year , and a 2% reduction in world supply per year from 2008 of 85mpd. This gives 2037 as the cross over point between US demand and world supply of oil.

If you take off the consumption of the producer nations , then this date comes forward a number of years!

With facts like these, there is only one option, change energy strategy, becuase if if you choose war and it 1000% successful(See above) then it only buys the US 23 years !

Still A LOSE LOSE situation!

PB

by **PenultimateManStanding** » Sun 09 Jan 2005, 16:39:26

Some thoughts on money, oil and war: if money is really oil and the US is the only country poised to take action when the oil starts getting scarce because of its military prowess, then wouldn't the US be in a position to state the terms? Forget the current money situation. Debts in the oldfangled currencies won't matter. Only oil will matter.

by **Permanently_Baffled** » Sun 09 Jan 2005, 17:26:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 't')hen wouldn't the US be in a position to state the terms?

by **Aaron** » Sun 09 Jan 2005, 18:01:51

war is hellishly profitable

http://tinyurl.com/5jhjd

by **PenultimateManStanding** » Sun 09 Jan 2005, 18:57:15

No one has a crystal ball. By the way, PB, one of my favorite novels is Fielding's Tom Jones. What a world that was! How I long for the past.

by **stu** » Mon 10 Jan 2005, 05:42:04

True that there is a high possiblity that the whole situation is a lose-lose one for the US regarding resource wars.

Personally I think that if the situation detiorates and gets worse then logic will continue to be thrown out of the window. I view the world in it's current state as a project to bring about world peace through the spread of capitalism. If we change countries that are not democratic in our eyes then we we will make them capitalist and trade with them and everyone will get on together happily consuming and trading.

The source of this project is of course oil and if no alternative is found then the project collapses and the survival of the nation state becomes the top priority. If America loses power or influence in parts of the world then certain countries, such as Russia or China, may look to expand their geopolitical influence in the areas around them. This will of course result in more conflict and the more conflict there is then the more money the weapons companies make. I will admit it is a bit of a grey area when talking about being able to secure natural resources for war. If I look at WWII as an example again then I'm reminded that the Nazis decided to leave Sweden alone because they provided them with steel. Maybe neutral countries will provide raw materials. But it's only a long shot. Of course you have to put the use of nuclear weapons into the equation. If the US decided to nuke Japan because it would save a million soldiers dying then you have to consider the possibility of Dubya, or maybe a future Christian President, believing that God told him to nuke the Muslims or the Chinese.

Now thats a scary thought

by **Permanently_Baffled** » Mon 10 Jan 2005, 06:04:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'w')ar is hellishly profitable

http://tinyurl.com/5jhjd

by **stu** » Mon 10 Jan 2005, 06:40:21

Of course they are hoping Iraq becomes pacified so that they can use the oil for trade and long term profit.

That's not going to happen by a long shot and the whole project looks doomed to failure.

Maybe I need to learn more about economics and their relation to military conflicts. :oops:

by **PenultimateManStanding** » Mon 10 Jan 2005, 18:07:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'N')o one has a crystal ball. By the way, PB, one of my favorite novels is Fielding's Tom Jones. What a world that was! How I long for the past.

by **stu** » Tue 11 Jan 2005, 09:17:04

Come on PMS less of the doom and gloom.

The future may be dark but the way I see it is that if the world is going to go down the toilet then I'm going down all guns blazing. :evil:

by **Permanently_Baffled** » Tue 11 Jan 2005, 09:23:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stu', '
')I'm going down all guns blazing. :evil:

by **stu** » Tue 11 Jan 2005, 10:10:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Permanently_Baffled', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stu', '
')I'm going down all guns blazing. :evil:

THE Resource Wars Thread (merged)

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