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Archduke Ferdinand moment?

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Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 02:51:23

Well is the stage finally getting set for a summer showdown? With Iran and the United States in the mix on opposite sides we have the opportunity for a rocking summer. And for what? 140 square miles of barren rocky shot up refugee camp.

Israel plans attack on Gaza

Guess I better go ahead and buy that new wood stove and thermal curtains on Monday.
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Re: Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 03:49:45

something is definitely going to happen very soon. An all out war is immanent. There are about 4 trigger points going on right now.
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Re: Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby Jack » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 03:58:24

The last Israeli action turned out badly. Going up against 15,000 militants, intermingled with civilians, is likely to be problematic.

Sometimes, there are no good answers.

Oh, well. Should make for some amusing evening news broadcasts. Now, who are we cheering for? Eastasia, was it? Or Eurasia?
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Re: Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby bobcousins » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 05:49:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 's')omething is definitely going to happen very soon. An all out war is immanent. There are about 4 trigger points going on right now.


Are these four "trigger points" on horseback? :roll:
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Re: Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby eric_b » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 08:43:08

So much conflict and grief over such a small miserable piece of land ..
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Re: Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby mekrob » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 18:16:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'T')he last Israeli action turned out badly. Going up against 15,000 militants, intermingled with civilians, is likely to be problematic.

Sometimes, there are no good answers.


You actually think that Israel gives a shit about how many civilians die? Hey, what ever happened to those two IDF soldiers? Oh that's right. They don't even give a shit about their own soldiers, let alone men, women and children from the other side.

Beirut was a fairly modern city until it got crushed by the IDF, much like the other cities in Lebanon. However, Ghaza is nothing like that. It's much more "futuristic", in that it's extremely overcrowded. A single grenade in a market would kill more than a dozen. Imagine what's going to happen if Israel uses hundreds of 500+lb bombs.
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Re: Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby Mo_Oil_Dave » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 18:22:48

Hello there...

I don't think horses have been used since Poland tried to use them in WWII. They are just too smart to get involved like that. Perhaps it will be more like these.

www.oilempire.us/graphics/truckdrivers.jpg

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Re: Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby clittle » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 22:49:48

Hamas was democratically elected. The U.S. helped fuel the violence in Gaza by supporting Fatah. Hamas were more brutal because they view Fatah as traitors because of U.S. support. I don’t think this will spark a regional war. After all this is the 40th anniversary of Israeli military occupation. The Israel military is powerful because of U.S. military aid. They will just roll over the oppressed Palestinians like they always do.
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Re: Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby Mircea » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 23:20:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'B')eirut was a fairly modern city until it got crushed by the IDF, much like the other cities in Lebanon.


Fairly modern? It was on the brink of becoming the Wall Street of the Middle East.

You can't imagine how pissed off the French were. If it hadn't been for public/world opinion, the DeGaulle would have been parked off the coast pounding Tel Aviv and Haifa.
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Not WWI horses, but rather...

Unread postby Dvanharn » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 00:25:15

The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse from the book of Revelations...

Image
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Re: Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby Blacksmith » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 00:36:48

Solution war for oil, makes sence. Since you are going to have a depopulation anyway.
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Re: Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 02:06:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clittle', 'H')amas was democratically elected.



Yes they were.......but then Hamas staged a coup against their own government :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D
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Re: Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 04 Dec 2013, 10:48:37

I think the moment was when President Obama backed down over chemical weapons in Syria. Seems like the geopolitical situation is getting tenser and tenser every day since then.
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Re: Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 04 Dec 2013, 11:08:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'I') think the moment was when President Obama backed down over chemical weapons in Syria. Seems like the geopolitical situation is getting tenser and tenser every day since then.


Yes,
YES,

AND YES!

The Obama Admin seriously rocked the geopolitical situation in the world, damaged US foreign policy, it is a big big mess and future presidents will have big problems over what this administration has done.

I'm Democrat, voted Obama twice, I'm with Democrats on domestic policy -- but I honestly did not expect the Obama admin to make such serious long-term strategic blunders. If I had known this, and now knowing McCain still hasn't aged a day and Palin wouldn't be in office, I would have voted McCain. We really, really needed McCain on these long term geopolitical things.

It's just a darn shame, Republicans have always been best on foreign policy until the Bush years and pushing it too far, then Dems are best on domestic policy and Democrats can't ever seem to get another FDR or Johnson or Kennedy. And Repubs are so batty on domestic policy now. What's a voter to do?

I'll tell you this, at the end of the day if Democrats are screwing everything up that endangers the future of this country internationally, and democracy in general as we are so weak and China and Russia run roughshod, THEN I WILL VOTE REPUBLICAN.
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Re: Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby Timo » Wed 04 Dec 2013, 13:08:48

I'm tempted to vote Green in the next election.

That is, IF Republicans will allow me to vote at all. It seems that voting is now a crime, and the burden of proof of innocence has been effectively shifted from the accuser to the accused. Guilt is assumed, and judgement rendered unless you can prove your innocence. That's not the way justice is supposed to work here in the US. That's just one reason why i'll never vote Republican. But, i may not vote Democtratic as much as i used to, either.
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Re: Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 04 Dec 2013, 16:09:18

Go to the link to see the images.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/12/0 ... g-Contrast

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ON DEC 02, 2013 AT 04:42 PM PST
TIME Magazine's U.S. & World Covers This Week Offer Stunning Contrast

Each week, TIME Magazine designs covers for four world markets: the U.S., Europe, Asia and the South Pacific. While the content in these magazines are nearly identical, the covers are not, with those intended for American audiences often being quite ... different.

This week offers a stark example, as world markets are presented with "Obama's Iran Gamble" while Americans are tempted with "America's Pest Problem."

Witness:

timedecember
Yes, what you see is TIME devoting its cover in international markets to a critical moment in world diplomacy – one of the most important diplomatic moments in a decade – while offering Americans a rather banal topic about which the gun lobby is certainly cheering.
As I've noted before, TIME has a history of tempting the world with critical events, ideas or figures, while dangling before Americans the chance to indulge in trite self-absorption or topics of questionable importance.
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Re: Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby dorlomin » Wed 04 Dec 2013, 16:35:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'I') think the moment was when President Obama backed down over chemical weapons in Syria. Seems like the geopolitical situation is getting tenser and tenser every day since then.
There are no major blocks preparing to go to war with each other. The world is monopolar, inspite of how trendy it is to talk about the fall of the American Empire. Militarily the US dominates the next 5 countries together with ease. The global economy is largely integrated so it is difficult to go to war without seriously damaging your economy. This is deliberate. Post WWII integrating economies was planned with peace as an objective.

You cannot imagine the UK and France going to war next year, or the US and Germany, or Japan and Argentina. The friction points between most of the worlds top 20 economy members tend to be very focussed in specific issue like tiny islands.

Over the past 24 years the world has been the most stable it has been since the rise of the agricultural revolution.

The biggest of the clouds is Pakistan India. A nuclear stand off between two nations with real burning grievances and religious hatred. The US\ Syria, US\Iran are just small regional wars. Like the Falklands or Iraq\Kuwait.

This is a famous satirical sketch from 1994 that shows the news hyping of events to manufacture the impression of tension where none exist. Why we may see a world of tension.
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Re: Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 04 Dec 2013, 17:04:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'I') think the moment was when President Obama backed down over chemical weapons in Syria. Seems like the geopolitical situation is getting tenser and tenser every day since then.
There are no major blocks preparing to go to war with each other. The world is monopolar, inspite of how trendy it is to talk about the fall of the American Empire. Militarily the US dominates the next 5 countries together with ease. The global economy is largely integrated so it is difficult to go to war without seriously damaging your economy. This is deliberate. Post WWII integrating economies was planned with peace as an objective.

You cannot imagine the UK and France going to war next year, or the US and Germany, or Japan and Argentina. The friction points between most of the worlds top 20 economy members tend to be very focussed in specific issue like tiny islands.

Over the past 24 years the world has been the most stable it has been since the rise of the agricultural revolution.

The biggest of the clouds is Pakistan India. A nuclear stand off between two nations with real burning grievances and religious hatred. The US\ Syria, US\Iran are just small regional wars. Like the Falklands or Iraq\Kuwait.

This is a famous satirical sketch from 1994 that shows the news hyping of events to manufacture the impression of tension where none exist. Why we may see a world of tension.


It seems to me that if the Iran-Iraq war had taken place in 2010 instead of the 1980's the impact would have been far greater because world oil supplies are very tight now compared to what it was like 30 years ago. Calling it a small regional war won't change the global economic impact at all.

As for your other example, Pakistan vs India and North Korea vs South Korea have both been simmering on low heat for a long time.
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Re: Archduke Ferdinand moment?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 05 Dec 2013, 08:46:53

We do have a global integrated economy, that is increasingly stressed and marginal.

One never knows for sure where all the critical linkages lie. The WorldEconomic Forum does periodic risk assessments.

http://www.weforum.org/issues/global-risks

That's a good report to review. If you get into the details you will find that in most cases the subject matter experts are more pessimistic, but their opinion is diluted by others.
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