[Carlhole]

From Peak Oil To Dark Age?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BW', '[')b]Oil output has stalled, and it's not clear the capacity exists to raise production

With global oil production virtually stalled in recent years, controversial predictions that the world is fast approaching maximum petroleum output are looking a bit less controversial. At first blush, those concerned about global warming should be delighted. After all, what better way to prod the move toward carbon-free, climate-friendly alternative energy?

But climate change activists have nothing to cheer about. The U.S. is completely unprepared for peak oil, as it's called, and the wrenching adjustments it would entail could easily accelerate global warming as nations turn to coal (see BusinessWeek.com, 4/19/07, "Rx for Earth: Sooner Not Later"). Moreover, regardless of the implications for climate change, peak oil represents a mortal threat to the U.S. economy.

Peak oil refers to the point at which world oil production plateaus before beginning to decline as depletion of the world's remaining reserves offsets ever-increased drilling. Some experts argue that we're already there, and that we won't exceed by much the daily production high of 84.5 million barrels first reached in 2005. If so, global production will bump along near these levels for years before beginning an inexorable decline.

What would that mean? Alternatives are still a decade away from meeting incremental demand for oil. With nothing to fill the gap, global economic growth would slow, stop, and then reverse; international tensions would soar as nations seek access to diminishing supplies, enriching autocratic rulers in unstable oil states; and, unless other sources of energy could be ramped up with extreme haste, the world could plunge into a new Dark Age. Even as faltering economies burned less oil, carbon loading of the atmosphere might accelerate as countries turn to vastly dirtier coal.

GIVEN SUCH UNPLEASANT possibilities, you'd think peak oil would be a national obsession...

[pea-jay]

Too bad it is a guest editorial.

Still it's progress

[Carlhole]

You know, I bet this sort of news, if it's spread around far and wide by the rest of the MSM is just the ticket to gain the public's acquiescence to permanent garrisons in Iraq and to allow the Democrats a safe way to support a continuation of the war.

I can't locate my posts from probably 2 years ago in which I voiced my suspicions that towards the end of Bush's term, when a new team is set to enter the White House, there would be announcements made about the peaking of world oil production - that we cannot allow our economy to be held hostage and all that.

I think the correct perspective on Iraq is just about to hit the MSM - that the war was all about oil - peak oil, to be exact.

Or maybe I'm reading too much into just one article so far. It just seems to me like BusinessWeek has just written the first 2nd generation Peak Oil piece. It seems obvious that others must follow.

Am I wrong?

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'S')till it's progress

[pea-jay]

Iraq was all about delaying peak oil. Maybe they thought it would solve it but really a delay was more realistic. I really believe that BushCo thought things would go swimmingly.

According to the time tables and goals out lined for Iraq in 2002-03 was that a changed iraq would see a flood of investment by western firms that would boost production from 2MBD to 6MBD withing 5 years. Wolfowitz went on the record as stating this would be a way to "break the back of OPEC"

Well, we are approaching five years out from that date, and an extra 4MBD a day of additional production would look might nice right about now. I mean if Iraq had that capacity now and the appereance that further increases were likely (even if they were false) that in itself should have kept the oil markets calmer so we would only be dealing with 30 dollar oil instead of 60+ oil.

I'm pretty sure that beautiful combination of a sucessful war in Iraq, low oil prices, economic growth could have lingered into the 2008 election, enough to cement another Republican victory. The foriegn policy implications of that would have been equally strong. OPEC would be far weaker and that despotic Castro wannabe in Venuzuela (his words not mine) history.

Of course things seldom work out like you intended. If you "dream big" you must be prepared for huge nightmares.

[Carlhole]

I guess I thought the article quite remarkable since BW is a very mainstream magazine.

This is the sort of thing that just might be picked up by CNN and MSNBC. If, in the days and weeks immediately ahead, it is widely reported, then I suspect someone at the control levers of the Mighty Wurlitzer has given the go-ahead for a more serious treatment of the Peak Oil Theory.

This is the first time I've ever read a piece like this in a mainstream mag like BW in which our economy is portrayed as highly vulnerable and terms like "Dark Age" are used to describe our future.

[pea-jay]

I pdf'd it so I can hand it out to those business-minded skeptics that pooh-pooh the idea. Like i said, its progress.

[strider3700]

Why is it dated from the future?

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', 'W')hy is it dated from the future?

[Twilight]

At some point peak oil will hit the mainstream not because some lever-puller thinks it's time to prepare public opinion for their next pet project, but because too many national governments and companies start acting on the assumption it is happening. For example, you can't ignore peak oil if Gazprom bases its business model around it. Or if Iran lets slip OPEC reserves corrected for 1988. That sort of thing is in danger of happening now, and it is beyond the influence of people traditionally viewed as pulling the strings. They may not want these headlines, maybe all they can do is firefighting and damage control. But it's going to be hard to push the cornucopian line if the media can point to the governments of half the world's population and half the world's reserves suddenly turning nationalist, and ask "So if resources are abundant, why are they doing things that way?"

Reality is breaking through all by itself. Pragmatic action is starting to be taken. Denials are becoming more desperate and only fundamental public ignorance stands in the way.

[Eli]

Yes Twilight is right, I still wonder if it will ever be described as PO though it very well may be.

This article does a very nice job of explaining where we are at right now. The only specter not fully revealed is that there is a good chance right now that Saudi has peaked.

The stuff at TOD leads me to believe they have, and KSA not meeting Asian supply contracts.

The dark ages, is probably a good way to put it.

[shortonoil]

Twilight said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t some point peak oil will hit the mainstream not because some lever-puller thinks it's time to prepare public opinion for their next pet project, but because too many national governments and companies start acting on the assumption it is happening.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]Twilight said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t some point peak oil will hit the mainstream not because some lever-puller thinks it's time to prepare public opinion for their next pet project, but because too many national governments and companies start acting on the assumption it is happening.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'D')o you think journalists are by and large, retarded?

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'D')o you think journalists are by and large, retarded?

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'B')usinessweek is way behind the curve on geologic peak and can be gauranteed to continue supporting an industry neutral or friendly tone when their coverage amps up.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'B')usinessweek is way behind the curve on geologic peak and can be gauranteed to continue supporting an industry neutral or friendly tone when their coverage amps up.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I') can assure you that what is ommitted, is a matter of editorial policy and is established, from the top. Editorial decisions are subject to change at any given time. They yield to reality, but tend to bend along the lines of the status quo. Read Chomsky

[shortonoil]

from threadbear:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')evere company budget cuts at a time when BP PLC was making huge profits put pressure on managers to ignore corrosion protection at the oil company's North Slope pipelines that sprung leaks last year, according to internal company documents.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '
')
A little disingenuous? This article is a least two years old, and they are referring to BP’s budget cuts before oil took its meteoric moon shoot.