[roccman]

Happy reading:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic29417.html

[Daculling]

I was thinking more like this....

HousingPanic

Or this if you can follow it.

CalculatedRisk

Housing is not PO.Com's forte.

[roccman]

Quite a few of those posts and graphs are from Housngpanic - Keith and I go back a while there. In fact I credit Keith for some of those posts. I also tell those at HP to come here for PO news and dialouge

There are a variety of topics here...housing should be represented.

I think there are many here that follow this topic so I do not agree with you that it is not PO forte...

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daculling', ' ')MonteQuest - Where does my post belong? Depletion Econ? Open or Psychology?

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daculling', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'S')ome will fare better than others but there is no safe haven in modern currencies.

[Baldwin]

My critique of gold and silver:
Gold: Will always hold value. A small fortune may be transported with ease. It has almost universal recognition of value. In a really bad "Collapse of the Roman Empire" scenario where we get plunged into the dark ages, gold can get you large quantities of food, housing, horses etc or perhaps even an escape to somewhere better. In the event we get a protracted depression but are atleast partially saved (notwithstanding a 0-60% dieoff) by an oil alternative, your gold will still comparatively have the same value.

Silver: "Poor man's gold." It holds similar bonuses to gold in that it retains value and can be used in either a powerdown or an apocalyptic peak oil future. It has the benefit of having more utility in small transactions (a 1/20 oz coin is still worth approx $33). However, silver is EXTREMELY bulky to transport. 50 ounces of silver @ $13 is worth the same as 1 ounce of gold @ $650.

ETF's are BAD. It is a promise to pay the bearer on demand gold. In a real SHTF scenario, I want the real thing, not a piece of paper saying I have gold hundreds of miles away. Mining companies may fold without fossil fuels, and obviously this is bad news for shareholders.

Land: In the neo-feudal fantasies of some of you (if they play out), land will be the means of creating wealth.

The only modern currency you might want to look into is the swiss franc. Unfortunately, in the year 2000, the Jews ruined the currency (in my eyes) by pressuring the Swiss to take the money off it is 40% backing by gold, claiming some of it was Holocaust gold. Ultimately, the US dollar's ruination will bring down all other fiat currencies.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baldwin', 'E')TF's are BAD. It is a promise to pay the bearer on demand gold. In a real SHTF scenario, I want the real thing, not a piece of paper saying I have gold hundreds of miles away.

[Roccland]

If any of you are at a loss as to how to preserve the value of your 401k or IRA, check out PSAFX, Prudent Global Income Fund. It holds those German government bonds that may be a safe haven - besides gold and silver.

Find it at : Prudent Bear I am not a financial anything just parroting what I read.

[AirlinePilot]

Moving the bulk of your 401K into global market or emerging market type funds (if you can) is one of the few things you can do which may provide some shelter. It all depends on how bad things get really. Anything which reduces your exposure to US markets and the liquidity crisis should be good for the time being.

Another idea would be to invest in gold or silver funds/certificates. I think some sort of long term government securities would at least weather a downturn. I was looking into TIPS today as another way to at least try and shelter money while this goes down.

Much depends on what your investment horizon is and what you can do within your plan. Consulting professional investment advice is prudent. I wouldnt wait too long though.

[Jack]

If one is strongly convinced of a move down, they might consider hedging with an "ultra-short" ETF.

LINK

[drgoodword]

In a severe economic crisis, I'm in agreement with the traditionalists: gold is the last man standing as a preserver of wealth. Mind you, that's investment grade gold bullion I'm talking about, not gold mining stocks or even ETF's.

One of the best options I've found that allows direct investment in gold bullion without the risk of home storage or the costs of bank storage is the Bullion Millenium Fund ( http://www.bullionfund.com ). They invest in equal amounts of gold, silver and platinum bullion, stored in the bullion vaults of one of Canada's biggest banks, Bank Of Nova Scotia.

It's probably eligible for the 401K (I have some in my RRSP, Canada's 401K equivalent).

[eastbay]

No. Not at all. I really expected this money crisis to hit after September, then shake itself off after a few quarters, but the headline-grabbing financial situation seems to have arrived early. It'll correct itself in a fairly short time and will briefly boom upwards again. Then oil scarcities will slowly grind away at everything as the next decade passes. Readers here know why.

Play it safe and sit on some cash or precious metals if you're really freaked out (but obviously inflation could weaken cash... and have fun guarding the metals), or invest cautiously (for the mid-term) in a basket of strong, safe, larger companies dealing in basic critical resources needed and heavily consumed during both strong and weak market periods. And readers here know what they are.

[mmasters]

I'm all for Gold, Oil (esp oil services) and Euros.

Some things to keep in mind:

IIRC Gold and Silver ETFs are capital gains taxed at 28% so have them in a tax exempt fund, IRA or some such.

Globalization will lose steam at some point and global development funds will go sour so keep in mind it's not a long term play.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '
')Globalization will lose steam at some point and global development funds will go sour so keep in mind it's not a long term play.

[korosten]

just an update:
we actually put our house on the market within a week after the first post (in June).

Guess what: we haven't sold it yet, while prices keep dropping in almost free fall. We haven't given up yet (we are not yet under water, but it's getting closer...).

Chantal

[jupiters_release]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('korosten', 'j')ust an update:
we actually put our house on the market within a week after the first post (in June).

Guess what: we haven't sold it yet, while prices keep dropping in almost free fall. We haven't given up yet (we are not yet under water, but it's getting closer...).

Chantal

[deMolay]

I would not invest in any Fiat currency. Invest in yourself. Pay off that mortgage. Pay for that land. Buy the tools that you will need. Horses, grain grinders, tools, solar panels, water purifiers, food stash, learn to garden and how to save seed etc. If you are on this site, then you should know by now. It is not a matter of if PO happens but when. And it will not be just PO, PO immediately means Peak Food, and Peak Water. I knew an old German, who was a young man during the 1920's which preceded WW2 and Hitler. It got so bad that the farmers would no longer accept even gold for food. Never mind worthless paper. Through all the great Financial smashup's in history, yes the farmers suffered, they had no money. But they had food, shelter and water. Something that money cannot buy when it is too late. Many old folks papered their outhouses with stocks and bonds that were worthless after the Big Fish ate the Little Fish. But many of those old folks tell stories of how, yes we had it bad, we had no money, and you couldn't buy a job. But we had each other and we had lot's too eat. And at least they were not in a soup line in the city, with no where to lay their head at night.

[Rogozhin]

I have setup my 401k for 10% of my gross income. I'm not sure I should go this high. My employer matches .25c to every $1. I just started this plan so there is only $432 in it at the moment. I have 70% in the Vanguard 500 index fund, 20% in the William Blair International Growth Fund and 10% in the Vanguard Equity Income fund. Should I not put any money into my 401K or should I do a 50/50 bond fund split with the 500 index fund?

I'm 32, divorced, with only credit card and car loan debt. I don't pay rent, utilities, phone, or any other normal living expense required with renting or owning a home (though I'm helping to double the monthly payment on the 20 acres). I work for Yahoo and I gross roughly $50,000.
Thanks for any help.

[TreeFarmer]

As long as you are getting the instant 25% return on your money, put in all you can. I'm sure there is a limit on what your employer will match though.

I would suggest the Vanguard Star Fund or Wellington. The mix of stocks/bonds/cash (60/30/10 approximately) will give you a much smoother ride and very good returns as well.

If you want to mix things up and believe in Peak Oil, put a % of your money into Vanguards Energy fund ( I don't know the exact name).

Before I went too crazy with any investing though I'd pay off those credit cards and cars and go to living on cash, it's a much better way to accumualte wealth. Credit cards and car loans are signature loans which means if you don't pay they can theoretically sue you for everything you have in an attempt to collect the $ that are owed to them.

If you really want to invest wisely, read Total Money Makeover by Dave Ramsey, simple precise advice on what to do with your money so that you end up living responibly and can have fun as well.

It is amazing how GREAT it feels to have NO DEBT.


TF

[gnm]

Well, if inflation is is 7-9% which I believe is a fairly accurate statement, then the combination of the matched funds (percentage) and the gains (if any) need to be better than that or you're just stuffing it under the bed. Couple that with the collapsing dollar and you're boned.

I'd buy 10oz silver bars myself... a couple a month maybe?

AFTER I secured some basic supplies...

you know, just in case we doomers are right....

-G