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What won't we need for EV's

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What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 08:34:09

OK I watched Who Killed The Electric Car this week and it got me to thinking. What won't we need to manufacture if a moderate percentage of driver were to switch to pure EV's?

By whatever percentage you pick you eliminate that many

Air Filters
Spark plugs
intake manifolds
Fuel pumps
exhaust manifolds
catalytic converters
exhaust pipes
mufflers
gas tanks
oil filters
transmission filters
ignition controll modual/distributors
spark plug wires

Anything else to do with ignition, air intake, air exhaust, fuel storage and delivery.....

In other words you eliminate the jobs for the people producing that portion of those products, the manhours of the mechanics who would install and maintain those items is also reduced proportionately.

Perhaps this is the real reason EV's are frowned upon, imagine the hit to the world economy of transitioning from maufacturing all the things which are nessecery for the gasoline/diesel engine which are not needed for the EV.

That is the real demand destruction, the government could easily mandate meters for your EV charger and tax you as easily as they do for gasoline/diesel fuel. All those unemployed parts workers would be a major hit on the economy, and all the general mechanics who would no longer be needed as well would be another hit.

What say you?
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 12:30:58

OK I watched Who Killed The Gasoline Car this week and it got me to thinking. What won't we need to manufacture if we switch to gasoline instead of horses and carriages?

You eliminate:

Stables
Feed for horses
wooden wheels
cobblestone streets
horse shoes
pitch forks for the hay
farming equipment to grow the hay
barns
horse feeding and watering stations
horse trainers
horse breeders
carpenters

Anything else to do with horses, buggy whips, carriages, dirt roads, barns, animal husbandry, hay farmings will go.

In other words you eliminate the jobs for the people producing that portion of those products, the manhours of the carpenters, farmers, etc. who would grow or build those items is also reduced proportionately.

Perhaps this is the real reason automobiles are frowned upon, imagine the hit to the world economy of transitioning from maufacturing all the things which are nessecery for the animal-based transportation network which are not needed for the gasoline cars.

That is the real demand destruction, the government could easily mandate meters for your gas stations and tax you as easily as they do for animal feed. But all those unemployed farmers and carpenters would be a major hit on the economy, and all the general animal husbandry professionals who would no longer be needed as well would be another hit.

What say you?

:evil:

It's called capitalism. When one industry is no longer profitably, it disappears to be replaced by something else. All of the employees from that industry are freed up to do something else. Or they sit around unemployed and miserable.

Overall the hit to the economy is softened by the creation of new industries and new jobs.

The market will push people out of energy-intensive work and pull them into new, lower-energy use occupations.
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 12:52:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')hat say you?


I say that the ICE infrastructure is far more complex and ingrained than the horse and buggy days ever dreamed of. Not to mention the transition was done over time when the world held a little over a billion and a half people with abundant oil at pennies per barrel.
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby steam_cannon » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 13:47:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')hat say you?
I'd say the car had advantages over the horse and the rich were interested in it becoming more popular. The electric car is similar cost, not faster or better performing, and the wealthy can still roll down the road for a long time... The electric car is very different then comparing horses and cars. The electric car could even give back control of the fuel source back to the poor! Definitely not in the interest of the wealthy.

To compare to the Internal Combustion Engine, like horses to cars... The new vehicle would have to be something like magical a flying car that slowly destroys the earths magnetic field but requires no conventional fuel. But hey I liked your comparison, it made me laugh :lol:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I')t's called capitalism.
Riddled with over grown monopolies and de facto trusts. The market has flexibility in producing the latest Beanie Baby plastic junk, but where ever big money is invested there is no free market. Whoever is voted into power gets the same money from the same players. Sure we will see the electric car, if and when corporations see it is in their interests to give us what we want.

Dam, I sound so fatalistic I feel like razzing myself! :razz:
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 15:13:26

Tell that to Tesla Motors, Toyota, and Honda.

The argument that electric cars being stopped because it will hurt the dealerships is like saying that Exxon is stopping renewable energy because it would hurt the gas stations.

Both are owned and operated by (for the most part) individuals, not the corporations themselves.

They can make money on electric cars and thus they will sell them.

For now, the purely electric car is not competitive but factor in $5 gasoline and the equation changes.

Moreover, we do not need purely electric cars in order to reduce oil consumption. Highly efficient gas/eletric hybrids and plug-in hybrids will reduce our gasoline consumption dramatically in the next few decades.

It's already happening...

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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 16:36:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', ' ')Moreover, we do not need purely electric cars in order to reduce oil consumption. Highly efficient gas/eletric hybrids and plug-in hybrids will reduce our gasoline consumption dramatically in the next few decades.


Jevons' Paradox says the opposite. Besides, what about the 3 billion newcomers? These efforts aren't going to create energy for them.

So, I guess energy consumption is going to continue to rise.
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 16:38:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', ' ')It's already happening...


Looks like sales are declining to me.
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 18:54:59

That's right, Monte, the first chance a hedonist gets and they go back to stroking.
When it comes down to it, the people will always shout, "Free Barabbas." They love Barabbas. He's one of them. He has the same dreams. He does what they wish they could do. That other guy is more removed, more inscrutable. He makes them think. "Crucify him."
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby tsakach » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 19:01:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', ' ')It's already happening...

Looks like sales are declining to me.


Old data! Last month's Prius sales have tripled from a year ago to 24,009 vehicles. This is happening as the major US auto companies are facing a prolonged contraction in sales.

Prius pushes Toyota to 1 million in hybrid sales
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby gw » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 19:21:50

FUCK the oil companies and their dirty oil wars. Rip that filthy stinkin' gasoline engine out of your car and convert it to electric. It's less expensive in the long run to drive and maintain an electric car. I would rather spend $2 now to avoid paying $1 more to these evil, corrupt and vile oil cartels.
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 19:33:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tsakach', ' ')
Old data! Last month's Prius sales have tripled from a year ago to 24,009 vehicles.


Point taken. New data.
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby azreal60 » Sun 10 Jun 2007, 03:30:19

Yeah, it's pretty amazing actually. The auto dealerships in my area are selling out, and they ordered a huge order almost everytime. Heck even used Prius's are at a premium.

As for what won't we need, honestly, that's misleading. Producing EV's won't need alot of things gasoline engines do need, but it will need just as many if not more people to produce the things EV's do need. I mean, do you think EV's aren't just as full of things that need manufacturing as ICE cars? They are just different things, with a different source of energy. They are still cars.
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sun 10 Jun 2007, 12:45:15

Can someone put a plot of gasoline prices in that chart along with Prius sales?

I'll bet the correlation is pretty strong.
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby Windmills » Sun 10 Jun 2007, 13:12:58

People love a good conspiracy, but EVs died back because they were introduced at the wrong time. They'll do just fine when the time is right. You can't introduce an austere vehicle during times of plenty and expect lazy, greedy people to suddenly see the light and downgrade the comfort and convenience of their lives.

As long as gasoline is cheap, people will prefer high performance vehicles loaded with options they'll never use. That's about the opposite of an EV. It's a matter of actual mass human behavior on the ground, not how some people think we ought to act in terms of the market.

There have always been more practical, fuel efficient vehicles available. Nobody's been forced to buy Hummers. It's always been a choice that consumers have happily made. There's a great deal more irrational, hormonal, tribal and primal thinking that goes into buying the biggest, showiest, most expensive vehicle a person can afford than there is rational, forward-looking, community-minded thought. Don't discount the power of sex and social status.
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 10 Jun 2007, 19:59:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', ' ')Moreover, we do not need purely electric cars in order to reduce oil consumption. Highly efficient gas/eletric hybrids and plug-in hybrids will reduce our gasoline consumption dramatically in the next few decades.


Jevons' Paradox says the opposite. Besides, what about the 3 billion newcomers? These efforts aren't going to create energy for them.

So, I guess energy consumption is going to continue to rise.


Yup, as long as it's a commodity, energy use will be encouraged. Provided oil continues to increase in price, those investigating alternatives and altering/minimizing their transportation methods will increase. Short term demand may be relatively inelastic and good for a few trillion in profit, but it's a very tight wire to walk in order to maximize profit, so I doubt we'll see $10 within the next decade w/o a fleet that averages ~35mpg.
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 10 Jun 2007, 20:03:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'O')K I watched Who Killed The Electric Car this week and it got me to thinking. What won't we need to manufacture if a moderate percentage of driver were to switch to pure EV's?

I don't think we manufacture much in the way of automotive components in the States. Everything is outsourced to other countries. What we do is assembly, and that's about it iirc... For instance, because labor overseas is so cheap, companies like autozone can offer lifetime warranties on parts. Even if the customer takes advantage of the warranty, they just toss the part in a container to china, where it's rebuilt by someone making pennies an hour.
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 10 Jun 2007, 20:55:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I') don't think we manufacture much in the way of automotive components in the States. Everything is outsourced to other countries. What we do is assembly, and that's about it iirc... For instance, because labor overseas is so cheap, companies like autozone can offer lifetime warranties on parts. Even if the customer takes advantage of the warranty, they just toss the part in a container to china, where it's rebuilt by someone making pennies an hour.


Yes, the US no longer has the manufacturing base, nor the skilled workers. Look at our trade deficit.

Globalization was only viable with cheap energy.
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 10 Jun 2007, 21:07:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'G')lobalization was only viable with cheap energy.

Yep, but we'll have that for some time, even if some of it is inherently self destructive. Since those big container ships are incredibly efficient at moving cargo, by the time oil gets to the point where it would impact them, especially considering they use our waste streams, there would be no "demand" for overseas goods anyway, since prices that high enough to hurt them would've killed our "economy" twenty times over.
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 11 Jun 2007, 07:24:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'O')K I watched Who Killed The Gasoline Car this week and it got me to thinking. What won't we need to manufacture if we switch to gasoline instead of horses and carriages?

You eliminate:

Stables
Feed for horses
wooden wheels
cobblestone streets
horse shoes
pitch forks for the hay
farming equipment to grow the hay
barns
horse feeding and watering stations
horse trainers
horse breeders
carpenters



The big difference is, these were all small bussiness in the 1890's, not mega-corps. Change can roll over any number of small parties if they lack effective abillity to resist the change. Today all these manufactured things are made by companies with a vested interest in fighting the change. This can not stop change, but it can certainly slow it down considerably.
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Re: What won't we need for EV's

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 11 Jun 2007, 11:11:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'O')K I watched Who Killed The Gasoline Car this week and it got me to thinking. What won't we need to manufacture if we switch to gasoline instead of horses and carriages?

You eliminate:

Stables
Feed for horses
wooden wheels
cobblestone streets
horse shoes
pitch forks for the hay
farming equipment to grow the hay
barns
horse feeding and watering stations
horse trainers
horse breeders
carpenters

Anything else to do with horses, buggy whips, carriages, dirt roads, barns, animal husbandry, hay farmings will go.


But they didn't. We still make all those things, probably more than before, with some exceptions.

But how much of the ICE things will still be around if we go to EV's?
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