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It's Always Worth Repeating

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: It's Always Worth Repeating

Unread postby Aaron » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 13:32:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'S')omebody finds a lake of sweet oil in the Super Giant class & our kids can have this discussion in 30 years or so...


You think a single super giant would last that long? Ha.


Another Ghawar?

Sure

Another North Sea?

Not so much
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: It's Always Worth Repeating

Unread postby Zardoz » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 00:36:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'A')nother Ghawar?

Imagine how different the world would be today if Ghawar, Burgan, and Cantarell were all located within the continental U.S.

What sort of scenarios could one come up with?
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Re: It's Always Worth Repeating

Unread postby dinopello » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 00:49:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'A')nother Ghawar?

Imagine how different the world would be today if Ghawar, Burgan, and Cantarell were all located within the continental U.S.

What sort of scenarios could one come up with?


You mean like a new Ghawar? We wouldn't be over in the ME, but we'd all be driving dump-truck-sized SUV's while asphalt and concrete would be so cheap we could make every road a 16 laner. It would just be so super :twisted:
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Re: It's Always Worth Repeating

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 09:32:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'A')nother Ghawar?

Imagine how different the world would be today if Ghawar, Burgan, and Cantarell were all located within the continental U.S.

What sort of scenarios could one come up with?


You mean if they were orriginally located inside the USA? Then the USA peak would have been delayed from 1970-72 to about 1982 and we would have hit 14 Mbbl/d instead of topping out at 10. Today we would be at about 8 Mbbl/d with all in depletion and we would be importing 12 Mbbl/d if it were availible on the world market with those three fields never having been part of the world market. If they were located in the USA we would know a lot better how much oil they held and still hold.

Oh and the USA trade ballance would have been better through the 1980's and 1990's and ME countries would be proportionaly poorer as a result. World oil prices wouldn't have been much different from what they were historically because the USA would still be consuming the same oil, or possibly more due to the cushioning of the oil shocks from the ME in the 70's. It was the big oil shock in the late 70's that really got the fire going under Congress to mandate all sorts of energy saving legislation like the CAFE standards and the Energy Star appliance laws. It was also the impetus for my dad to buy a woodstove and make me split firewood when I wanted to hang out with my friends ;)
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: It's Always Worth Repeating

Unread postby Golgo13 » Sat 05 May 2007, 02:05:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'O')f course that's just my opinion... I could be wrong.


Yeah, you could be.

But then again, so could they.

And given the discovery trend + advances in technology, if there was any insane reserves out there just waiting to be found then we would have in all likelihood found them by now.

So with that observation, the lower estimate seems much more likely a scenario than the median or upper.
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Unread postby sch_peakoiler » Sat 05 May 2007, 04:46:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he only thing I am curious about is when they give you 100 mil to shut down or turn over this site please give us our share! Smile


Give 100 mil?

The web site will be closed down as one of the first casualties of the "Prevention of Terrorism through unPatriotic Sedition Act of 2008".

I'm not kidding. This web site is a clear and present danger to national [energy] security and the stability of the zombie hordes.


Thats a very good point. For myself, this website (is availability/non availability) is the benchmark of the "severity" of the situation. For now, the situation is not so severe, so that it could be held under control by just counter propaganda - so the site is allowed to exist.

By the way - you do not really need to close the site by the law of the patriotic Act - it just draws attention. An intense hacker attack would be enough for the hosting provider to politely ask site owners to desist.
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Re: It's Always Worth Repeating

Unread postby Roy » Sat 05 May 2007, 07:01:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')magine how different the world would be today if Ghawar, Burgan, and Cantarell were all located within the continental U.S.


Lots of folks in this country believe that to be true. I've heard it from former oil workers, engineers, and just plain ol' people.

Even Alex Jones said that there were huge amounts of oil on his family property that was capped on purpose. A new saudi arabia in Alaska that has been left untouched.

They seem to think that we're using up the rest of the world's reserves before using our own, and that the oil companies are deliberately creating false shortages for short term economic benefits.


That idea makes about as much sense to me as Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and the White House fact sheet on Al Queda in Iraq.

:lol: :lol:
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Re: It's Always Worth Repeating

Unread postby Concerned » Wed 09 May 2007, 17:46:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'W')hy is it so hard to believe that people would believe this?

Most people in this country believe that a man who died 2,000 years ago actually rose bodily from the dead and that if you believe this you will live forever.


ROFLMAO classic and sadly true too. Then you extrapolate that to the rest of humanity...
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Re: It's Always Worth Repeating

Unread postby Mircea » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 00:34:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'A')nother Ghawar?

Imagine how different the world would be today if Ghawar, Burgan, and Cantarell were all located within the continental U.S.

What sort of scenarios could one come up with?


39 SLBM MIRV busses de-orbiting at an altitude of 85 miles over a period of 22 minutes along a north-south axis transiting an east axis about 150 miles apart, each with six 750 kt warheads and three decoys.....
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Re: It's Always Worth Repeating

Unread postby mididoctors » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 04:55:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '[')img]http://www.oilcrisis.com/Zagar/hawaii/Image401a.gif[/img]

Now I understand that most of you are not Petrologists, (although of course some of you are), but do you really need to be to question the wisdom of this prediction?
....

It seems impossible to me that any reasonable person could actually believe such nonsense, so I conclude that they in fact, do not actually believe it, despite their public commentary.



A lot of joe public will not understand why this presentation is so flawed..

in fact members of the admin and government looking to the EIA/USGS for guidance will not understand it.

It has credibility because it is official and its a graph...

We do not need to understand whether the red line... historical instrumental data is accurate or not to see the falsehood presented in this graphic.

SPELLING IT OUT

the methodology for determining the green line is portrayed as as "averaging out" the lower and higher case estimates for future discovery.

why is that unreasonable?

well it depends on the integrity of ones upper and lower case estimates.

one can move the average green line up by increasing ones estimate of the upper case, the blue line.. in other words no matter how bad the lower case yellow line looks one can create a more optimistic green line (which the USGS claim is the most likely answer) by just adding a wildly optimistic blue line.

so to do this they need someone of some "credible" character to make a wildly ridiculous estimate

QUESTION: who? the USGS theselves or is it sourced from elsewhere?

BUT WAIT there's more

if we look at the graph we will see the lower case yellow line is an extention of the real past historical record.. in other words the range of predictions for the future are set by the blue line.. a massive deviation from the current trend and the yellow line a continuation of the current red line.

IE the worst case scenario is not one were the current trend falls off but just continues

how honest is that?

on one hand to have a fantastically optimistic higher case that deviates massively and on the other a complete non moving trend for the lower case?

note these flaws exist even if we accept the validity of the red line.. we do not need to question USGS interpretation of past discoveries to see how statistically flawed this representation is.

recap

Flaws

1. assumes "average" of lower and higher case is the most likely truth, single high estimated skews graph. One could have 10 surveys that all pointed to the lower case and just one absurd higher case study

2. incredulous high estimate can"fix" any pessimistic scenario and create a rosy future.

3. No pessimistic lower case scenario that envisages a sharper fall off in discoveries

I'm sure some one can do this better

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Re: It's Always Worth Repeating

Unread postby mkwin » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 06:07:48

Very sobering Aaron. It would be interesting to add the last 6 years as well. Weren’t discoveries 16 gb last year? So they have rallied a little but a complete reversal of the trend - surely impossible.
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