[Aaron]

The USGS, CERA - Lynch, Yergin etc... all contend that oil discovery is going to follow that green line in this graph.

That's the basis for them predicting Peak Oil at 2030 or later.

Now I understand that most of you are not Petrologists, (although of course some of you are), but do you really need to be to question the wisdom of this prediction?

Does anybody really still believe that oil discovery is going to magically reverse it's 40 year trend, & rebound to new heights as this graph implies? <Negro Please>

It seems impossible to me that any reasonable person could actually believe such nonsense, so I conclude that they in fact, do not actually believe it, despite their public commentary.

Of course that's just my opinion... I could be wrong.

Get Off My Lawn... Damn Kids

[dinopello]

One thing about that chart, is it looks like the actuals end in 2000. that gives 6 or 7 years of data that should exist, not on that chart. What does it look like relative to the green line? Or, am i reading the chart wrong ?

[NEOPO]

Yes Aaron, it seems like nothing but propaganda yet we have hoardes of unreasonable people running about so....

Even though I feel this thread is not the place for certain thoughts I will submit Operation Mockingbird as an example of how TPTB have previously controlled and are probably now in control of just about everything.

The only thing I am curious about is when they give you 100 mil to shut down or turn over this site please give us our share!
I have like 3000 "points" and not a clue about how to redeem them

[Chaparral]

At some point optimism seamlessly morphs into stupidity.

[Pops]

I guess this could go in your "One Paragraph" thread Aaron, but here goes:

You can't burn it if you can't find it and we ain't been finding it for a while.


Sorta like the old dopers saying:

"Grass without money is better than money without grass."

Or not…

[Coolman]

Surprisingly that graph is to optimistic and misleading. It needs to show all the oil discovered before 1950. That is when all the good stuff was found. *cough* GHAWAR *cough* 1948 *cough* So oil discoveries actually peaked in 1948.

[NEOPO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he only thing I am curious about is when they give you 100 mil to shut down or turn over this site please give us our share! Smile

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'W')hy do all the threads i am involved in gotta mention weed man huh!! its a freaking conspiracy is why!

[NEOPO]

Maybe it should be? bet the cows would enjoy it and we all know happy cows are yummy cows


Its a lie! and thats the truth...

[AirlinePilot]

That graph is almost like a cartoon. I wonder If they didnt make it just to see how many folks could be fooled by it.

The green line looks like they let a kid lose with the powerpoint tools and didn't bother to fix it.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '[')img]http://www.oilcrisis.com/Zagar/hawaii/Image401a.gif[/img]

[Cobra_Strike]

WTF is with the green line on the graph? There are data points that follow the divergence, trending down. This is not optimism, because the upper bound is their optimistic prediction....HOW IN THE FUCK is this EVER suppose to be POSSIBLE!? Its not even close to realistic.

>_< its frustrating to see BS like this. It makes me want to stab these cornucopians with rolled up graph paper.

[green_achers]

Excuse me if I am just ignorant of common knowledge of everybody else here, but what is the source of the graph? I notice that "past" discovery actually overlaps the 1995-2025 period by about 5 years, and it is closer (as you would expect) to P95 than any of the other projections.

[killJOY]

Why is it so hard to believe that people would believe this?

Most people in this country believe that a man who died 2,000 years ago actually rose bodily from the dead and that if you believe this you will live forever.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('green_achers', 'E')xcuse me if I am just ignorant of common knowledge of everybody else here, but what is the source of the graph? I notice that "past" discovery actually overlaps the 1995-2025 period by about 5 years, and it is closer (as you would expect) to P95 than any of the other projections.

[Aaron]

This quote, (linked from the USGS website!) explains the problem nicely.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')bstract The US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently predicted that world oil production could continue to increase for more than three decades, based on the recent US Geological Survey (USGS) evaluation of world oil resources and a simple, transparent model. However, it can be shown that this model is not consistent with actual oil production records in many different regions, particularly that of the US, from which it was derived. A more careful application of the EIA model, using the same resource estimates, indicates that at best non-OPEC oil production can increase for less than two decades, and should begin to decline at the latest sometime between 2015 and 2020. OPEC at this point will completely control the world oil market and will need to meet increased demand as well as compensate for declining production of non-OPEC producers. OPEC could control the market even sooner than this, given its larger share of proven oil reserves, probable difficulties in transforming non-OPEC undiscovered reserves into proven reserves, and the converging interests of all oil producers as reserves are depleted. This has significant implications for the world economy and for US national security.

[green_achers]

Well, I guess I don't understand what all of the fuss is about. Their chart seems to support the 95% probability model. Anyone who makes their plans based on any other curve is a fool, to say the least.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('green_achers', 'W')ell, I guess I don't understand what all of the fuss is about. Their chart seems to support the 95% probability model. Anyone who makes their plans based on any other curve is a fool, to say the least.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('green_achers', 'W')ell, I guess I don't understand what all of the fuss is about. Their chart seems to support the 95% probability model. Anyone who makes their plans based on any other curve is a fool, to say the least.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'S')omebody finds a lake of sweet oil in the Super Giant class & our kids can have this discussion in 30 years or so...