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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

The Dow Jones will be..

Poll ended at Wed 15 Jun 2005, 20:53:42

Be the same.
10
No votes
Below 10,000.
7
No votes
Below 9,000.
4
No votes
Below 8,000.
7
No votes
Below 7,000
5
No votes
Below 6,000.
2
No votes
5,000 and below.
29
No votes
 
Total votes : 64

Re: DOW going to 32,000-40,000... Nasdaq going to 13,000 by

Postby mgibbons19 » Thu 02 Feb 2006, 10:24:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', '4')0,000 what? yuan?


Icelandic Kroners perhaps?
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Re: DOW going to 32,000-40,000... Nasdaq going to 13,000 by

Postby DigitalCubano » Thu 02 Feb 2006, 10:42:21

1) Baby boomer retirement won't happen in one fell swoop. There won't be a massive, simultaneous sell-off of equity positions.

2) The post-baby boomer generation is just about as big. There were 77 million baby boomers born between 1947 and 1964 (4.3 million per year on average). There were 140 million babies born between 1965 to 1999 (4 million per year on average).

3) Tax laws encourage that equity positions be held as long as possible, so baby boomers will liquidate their equity positions more gradually than previous generations.

4) Boomers aren't just invested in equities.

5) Foreign investment positions are also sizeable, tend to move in groups and so far haven't caused a market collapse.

6) In the event of an oversupply of shares on the market, prices will fall, companies will be enticed to buy back shares to retain a greater share of their profits, cutting down on the supply, raising the market prices. A new equilibirum will be established rather than the bottom falling out.

Sorry, but all evidence still points to a diversified portfolio of equities, fixed income and savings assets being the best long-term investment strategy. Short-term looks pretty exciting as well. :-D
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Re: DOW going to 32,000-40,000... Nasdaq going to 13,000 by

Postby EnergySpin » Thu 02 Feb 2006, 11:01:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DigitalCubano', '1')) Baby boomer retirement won't happen in one fell swoop. There won't be a massive, simultaneous sell-off of equity positions.

2) The post-baby boomer generation is just about as big. There were 77 million baby boomers born between 1947 and 1964 (4.3 million per year on average). There were 140 million babies born between 1965 to 1999 (4 million per year on average).

3) Tax laws encourage that equity positions be held as long as possible, so baby boomers will liquidate their equity positions more gradually than previous generations.

4) Boomers aren't just invested in equities.

5) Foreign investment positions are also sizeable, tend to move in groups and so far haven't caused a market collapse.

6) In the event of an oversupply of shares on the market, prices will fall, companies will be enticed to buy back shares to retain a greater share of their profits, cutting down on the supply, raising the market prices. A new equilibirum will be established rather than the bottom falling out.

Sorry, but all evidence still points to a diversified portfolio of equities, fixed income and savings assets being the best long-term investment strategy. Short-term looks pretty exciting as well. :-D

Thank you ... I've had enough of the baby boomer myth.
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Re: DOW going to 32,000-40,000... Nasdaq going to 13,000 by

Postby TommyJefferson » Thu 02 Feb 2006, 13:02:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DigitalCubano', '.')..between 1947 and 1964 (4.3 million per year on average). ...between 1965 to 1999 (4 million per year on average)


Wow. I did not know that.

So this "Baby Boomer" thing really is a myth?

I was born in the latter 1960's. All my life I've used Boomers as an excuse for not getting what I wanted. "stupid Boomers ahead of me clogging up middle management jobs / spending my taxes / burning up my energy".

This intelligence could be a painful paradigm shift for me.
Conform . Consume . Obey .
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Dow Jones down 1-2% this week (INSERT HYPERBOLE HERE!1!!)

Postby 2Sun » Thu 07 Jun 2007, 13:55:44

The STOCK MARKET CRASHED!!! THIS IS IT!!! ITS ALL DOWNHILL FROM HERE.


[web]http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI[/web]
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Re: The STOCK MARKET CRASHED!!! THIS IS IT!!! ITS ALL DOWNHI

Postby basil_hayden » Thu 07 Jun 2007, 13:58:53

Look at the 5-year chart, it's a minor downtick, which we all knew was coming after it hit 13,000.
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Re: The STOCK MARKET CRASHED!!! THIS IS IT!!! ITS ALL DOWNHI

Postby dinopello » Thu 07 Jun 2007, 14:01:48

Overreact much?

and, Apple is flying high!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')pple Inc. shares continued their surge Thursday, rising to another all-time high as two industry analysts raised their price targets on the stock to $160 a share while forecasting upbeat sales for the company's soon-to-be released iPhone.
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Re: Dow Jones down 1-2% this week (INSERT HYPERBOLE HERE!1!!

Postby Twilight » Thu 07 Jun 2007, 14:18:42

Who cares? It can be anything any time now. It's got very little to do with the health of the economy any more.
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Re: Dow Jones down 1-2% this week (INSERT HYPERBOLE HERE!1!!

Postby Baldwin » Thu 07 Jun 2007, 17:28:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'W')ho cares? It can be anything any time now. It's got very little to do with the health of the economy any more.


It will be when the Arabs stop accepting funny money for oil.
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Re: Dow Jones down 1-2% this week (INSERT HYPERBOLE HERE!1!!

Postby Chaparral » Thu 07 Jun 2007, 19:19:19

Hmmm. The dollar rallied & gold dipped as did the Euro and some other currencies. Perhaps it might be a good opportunity to go long on some Emini S&P 500s and some metals. We'll see what the COT report has to say 2PM EST tomorrow.
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Dow Jones posts biggest one-day JUMP in 5 years (12 July)

Postby emersonbiggins » Thu 12 Jul 2007, 17:55:53

Gotta gotta be the M3, bay-bee! 8)

Biggest one-day jump in 5 years. Are these guys in touch with reality?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tocks soar to new highs on retail sales

By TIM PARADIS, AP Business Writer 5 minutes ago

NEW YORK - Wall Street soared Thursday, propelling the Standard & Poor's 500 index and Dow Jones industrials to record highs as bright spots among generally sluggish retail sales allowed investors to toss aside concerns about the health of the economy.

The rally, which included the Dow's biggest one-day percentage gain in nearly four years, was perhaps surprising given that there was no extraordinary announcement or other catalyst usually seen with such a huge gain, and that it came before most companies have announced their second-quarter earnings. The rise also marked a sharp contrast to the start of the week, when stocks fell sharply amid concerns that some hedge funds could succumb to ill-placed bets on the housing sector.

But investors, heartened by signs of a happy and spending consumer, clearly decided to put some bets on the table. Though retail sales generally appeared to be crimped last month by higher gasoline prices and a tepid housing market, and the outlook for the coming months was difficult to ascertain, the overall reading wasn't as dour as some investors expected.

Several reports beat Street expectations — notably that of Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, which posted a better-than-expected 2.4 percent jump in sales at stores open at least a year.

"It's relief that things weren't as bad as people expected," said Bill Schultz, chief investment officer at McQueen, Ball & Associates, referring to the retailers' reports and the economy at large. "We're maybe getting slower growth but not the fall-of-the-cliff economic scenarios," he said of investors' reading of the economy.

But, Schultz said, "I think it is, over the near-term, a little bit over done, certainly on a two-day basis," he added, referring to the rally.

According to preliminary calculations, the S&P 500 rose 28.94, or 1.91 percent, to 1,547.70, above its record close of 1,539.18, set June 4.

The Dow shot up 283.86, or 2.09 percent, to 13,861.73; its previous record close was 13,676.32, also set June 4. The increase was the biggest percentage gain for the blue chip index since October 2003 and the biggest point gain since October 2002. The Dow also reached a new trading high of 13,869.94.
...
Yahoo! article


I like this one:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')The kind of disaster situation that everybody was preparing for doesn't seem to be playing out."


O RLY? Give it time, dear.
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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Re: Dow Jones posts biggest one-day JUMP in 5 years (12 July

Postby Lore » Thu 12 Jul 2007, 18:31:16

I know, this is great news! I just put my house up for sale today in the SE, as I figure now is the time to make the move to my place in the Midwest. Come on markets!
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Dow Jones posts biggest one-day JUMP in 5 years (12 July

Postby Madpaddy » Thu 12 Jul 2007, 18:49:07

This really has got to be the last hurrah of the markets.

Its the pleasant swish of cooling air you feel on your face, only its displaced air in front of the baseball bat which is about to hit you on the head.
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Re: Dow Jones posts biggest one-day JUMP in 5 years (12 July

Postby clueless » Thu 12 Jul 2007, 19:04:33

Isn't this just petrodollar recycling ?

What is the Dow in relation to how much new currency has been fed into the system ?

Bush & Co have to have pumped what, 6 or 7 trillion $ in the last 6 years in the economy ? That money has to go somewhere, I mean the housing market is dead it can't go there. I wouldn't be surprised to see the market at 15k by year end, dollar holders are running out of places to put them.

I know I try not to have any if I can help it.
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Re: Dow Jones posts biggest one-day JUMP in 5 years (12 July

Postby Madpaddy » Thu 12 Jul 2007, 19:18:48

Good point clueless and if you take the declining value of the dollar into account, the markets are pretty much going nowhere.
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Re: Dow Jones posts biggest one-day JUMP in 5 years (12 July

Postby Plantagenet » Thu 12 Jul 2007, 19:25:01

Mr. Market is in a very good mood.

Party on, dudes! :P
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Re: Dow Jones posts biggest one-day JUMP in 5 years (12 July

Postby Tyler_JC » Thu 12 Jul 2007, 19:30:50

The dollar only dropped by about .3% today against the major world currency.

So the 2%+ rise in the DJIA was not related to the drop in the dollar.
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Re: Dow Jones posts biggest one-day JUMP in 5 years (12 July

Postby killJOY » Thu 12 Jul 2007, 19:35:02

Everyone assumes "number goes up, good. number goes down, bad."

Mean nothing to me. you might as well have said someone stuffed 13,861 hot dogs into their mouth.
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Re: Dow Jones posts biggest one-day JUMP in 5 years (12 July

Postby DantesPeak » Thu 12 Jul 2007, 19:37:10

Yes this is mostly about petrodollar recycling, but also about the recycling polices of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) - the latter group who fix their exchange rate against the US dollar.

Granted the US monetary policy is skewed to tight side, but petrodollar and BRIC countries are in the midst of explosive monetary growth. Although most countries wish to invest less in the US of their total trade surplus or exchange rate imbalance, they are actually steadily investing more as a group in the US since about the beginning of 2003. Of course if that ever stopped, the American way of life as we know may end for good.

Meanwhile more excess dollars are created each year (as the current account deficit expands with ever more unwanted exchange related dollars from BRIC countries), which actually accelerates the downward move in the dollar over time.
Last edited by DantesPeak on Thu 12 Jul 2007, 19:41:24, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dow Jones posts biggest one-day JUMP in 5 years (12 July

Postby Madpaddy » Thu 12 Jul 2007, 19:41:12

Tyler,

I meant the declining value over time - not just today.
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