[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Smudger', '[')
Don't patronise me - I've a degree in economics and masters degree in real estate analysis and forecasting. I work as a real market analyst in the London. Believe me, I know how important oil is and what damage is has and will do to economies around the world.

What's a real market analyst?.....

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azreal60', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o you know anything about the investment sector? My guess would be no. As soon as problems are experienced there will be chaos on the stock markets and capital will divert into industry and resources still deemed to be profitable. There will be literally TRILLIONS of dollars wanting to buy into the oil industry with its guaranteed high growth potential and inflation hedging ability. The same will be true of precious metals and many other industries likely to experience high growth due to infrastructure investment

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'A')aron, your point is well taken... but I still don't see it as a guaranteed investment with guaranteed growth. There is the possibility of fairly immediate and increasing price volatility in all the markets. I have trouble imagining any sort of steady and predictable bull movement post-peak, for even a short time, even (or perhaps especially) in energy futures.

If you're talking about direct investment, and I think you are, then I think enormous profit taking will certainly be possible, but mainly for people who invested pre-peak -- and then get out at the right time, so taking advantage of a huge price floor difference. I'm sure there will certainly be a gold rush for new extraction, but it will include risky projects -- ultra deepwater, Arctic circle and so on -- and at a much higher initial cost. Some people will make a lot of money, but I think a lot will be lost by others as cost basis rises and some projects just don't pan out.

We may be saying the same thing here.

I suppose an interesting alternative investment would be the industries that provide materials and infrastructure for the oil industry. One step removed, as it were. That I could see as more of a steady bull. Most gold prospectors didn't get rich during the California gold rush -- but Levi Strauss sure made a bundle.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') wasn't doubting oil depletion - but the decline in production will be far flatter with more exploration and investment in marginal fields.

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'D')o you know anything about the investment sector? My guess would be no. As soon as problems are experienced there will be chaos on the stock markets and capital will divert into industry and resources still deemed to be profitable. There will be literally TRILLIONS of dollars wanting to buy into the oil industry with its guaranteed high growth potential and inflation hedging ability. The same will be true of precious metals and many other industries likely to experience high growth due to infrastructure investment

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') wasn't doubting oil depletion - but the decline in production will be far flatter with more exploration and investment in marginal fields.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'D')o you know anything about the investment sector? My guess would be no. As soon as problems are experienced there will be chaos on the stock markets and capital will divert into industry and resources still deemed to be profitable. There will be literally TRILLIONS of dollars wanting to buy into the oil industry with its guaranteed high growth potential and inflation hedging ability. The same will be true of precious metals and many other industries likely to experience high growth due to infrastructure investment

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he oil majors had cut their exploratory budgets as most of the big finds have been found. However, there are plenty of smaller finds not yet developed or yet to be confirmed by drilling. On the depletion side, your example is perfect - on the one had you have the US where mature fields are undergoing a large amount of IOR and declining slowly as opposed to less developed fields declining more rapidly. It's likely the depletion rate can be lessoned significantly with more investment. When this is factored in with heavy investment in heavy oils/deep oil and smaller fields it’s clear to see the possibility of a more gradual gradient on the decline slope.

[threadbear]

Did any of you here notice that sentiments about global warming coming from the American govt seemed to turn on a dime, early this year? It was really strange. It's hard to tell if it was a critical mass phenomenon, or if some kind of conscious policy shift is taking place behind the closed doors of the corporatocracy. It seemed like the media had been given the "green" light to go all eco-conscious, all of a sudden. Also, tremendous emphasis on climate change...all of a sudden.

My brother's a journo and he did some digging into the cause of global warming, and kept hitting brick walls, trying to nail down a definitive answer about what is actually causing global warming.

He DID come up with something rather interesting though, and that is that the nuclear industry seems to be heavily involved in pushing the carbon emission causing climate change hypothesis. On the other hand, the solar cycle people seem to be heavily influenced and funded by the oil people.

It seems like much of the eco-consciousness we see of late could be the result of a brokered decision or series of decisions, to gradually let nuclear dominate and oil recede. Of course oil will still play a fairly significant role.

The Democrats have traditionally been closer to the nuclear industry, so you can see how it could be played as part of political platform that corrals the voter into equating oil preeminence over nuclear with ongoing wars and domestic nuclear with peace and as a solution to climate change.

There are already many contingency plans being sorted out to build "clean nuclear" all over the US. It's certainly happened in Europe and I can see no reason why it wouldn't happen in the US. It's horrendously expensive, true. That's why corporations will take it on, not govt.

These will be like the Depression era make work projects, as they will kick in when the US starts to hit dismal economic times. In this respect I agree with Mkwin. People will have to be pretty freaked out about energy issues before they sign on for it...but they will, I'm afraid, as energy becomes prohibitively expensive and news coverage shows people frozen as solid as fish sticks, being pulled out of their homes/freezers in the winter.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', ' ') There will be literally TRILLIONS of dollars wanting to buy into the oil industry with its guaranteed high growth potential and inflation hedging ability.

[jedinvest]

threadbare said:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y brother's a journo and he did some digging into the cause of global warming, and kept hitting brick walls, trying to nail down a definitive answer about what is actually causing global warming.

[keehah]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'G')rowth is guaranteed by constant demand in excess of supply causing prices and therefore revenue to continue to growth for a long time. The opposite is true for Real Estate in many markets. Demand is expected to temper as the US economy weakens later this year.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'D')id any of you here notice that sentiments about global warming coming from the American govt seemed to turn on a dime, early this year? It was really strange. It's hard to tell if it was a critical mass phenomenon, or if some kind of conscious policy shift is taking place behind the closed doors of the corporatocracy. It seemed like the media had been given the "green" light to go all eco-conscious, all of a sudden. Also, tremendous emphasis on climate change...all of a sudden.

My brother's a journo and he did some digging into the cause of global warming, and kept hitting brick walls, trying to nail down a definitive answer about what is actually causing global warming.

He DID come up with something rather interesting though, and that is that the nuclear industry seems to be heavily involved in pushing the carbon emission causing climate change hypothesis. On the other hand, the solar cycle people seem to be heavily influenced and funded by the oil people.

It seems like much of the eco-consciousness we see of late could be the result of a brokered decision or series of decisions, to gradually let nuclear dominate and oil recede. Of course oil will still play a fairly significant role.

The Democrats have traditionally been closer to the nuclear industry, so you can see how it could be played as part of political platform that corrals the voter into equating oil preeminence over nuclear with ongoing wars and domestic nuclear with peace and as a solution to climate change.

There are already many contingency plans being sorted out to build "clean nuclear" all over the US. It's certainly happened in Europe and I can see no reason why it wouldn't happen in the US. It's horrendously expensive, true. That's why corporations will take it on, not govt.

These will be like the Depression era make work projects, as they will kick in when the US starts to hit dismal economic times. In this respect I agree with Mkwin. People will have to be pretty freaked out about energy issues before they sign on for it...but they will, I'm afraid, as energy becomes prohibitively expensive and news coverage shows people frozen as solid as fish sticks, being pulled out of their homes/freezers in the winter.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', ' ')I wasn't doubting oil depletion - but the decline in production will be far flatter with more exploration and investment in marginal fields. While all the super-giant fields have been found, there are still a significant amount of potential smaller fields that will become profitable with a sustained high oil price.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', ' ') There will be literally TRILLIONS of dollars wanting to buy into the oil industry with its guaranteed high growth potential and inflation hedging ability.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', ' ')Exactly - growth in revenue and hence profits. This is attractive to investors as the dividend yield is only a small element of the return to the investor. Expected growth in future earnings - in this case by a rising all price - is a very big component. As, as oil is driving the inflation, the stock would be a good inflation hedge i.e. it rises faster than inflation.

[MonteQuest]

You do realize that we have been over every single point you bring up many, many times... for years on this site? This is a rehash. Nothing new here, I am afraid.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', ' ')I wasn't doubting oil depletion - but the decline in production will be far flatter with more exploration and investment in marginal fields. While all the super-giant fields have been found, there are still a significant amount of potential smaller fields that will become profitable with a sustained high oil price.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'Y')ou do realize that we have been over every single point you bring up many, many times... for years on this site? This is a rehash. Nothing new here, I am afraid.

[keehah]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', ' ')We just don't know.