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General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 13:36:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'I') find a number of elements of peak oil die-off scenario a little weak – such as;

3. Also, what about the collapse in demand for oil during the recession - surely this would further the plateau to allow time for further substitution to coal to liquids etc. The Hirsch report talks about a minimum lead in period of 10 years to migrate much of the economic difficulties but he also assumes NIMBY attitudes will cause much of the hold up. In an economic crises governments around the world will likely take emergency measures to override local objection and will get support from the majority, who won’t be effected but will enjoy the benefit, to build alternative infrastructure.


It will take an economic contraction, thus depression, to reduce demand. A recession will only slow the rate of growth of demand.

You think people are going to sit still for high unemployment and high energy bills...maybe rationing, while they wait years for alternative infrastructure to be built?

Where will the money come from? We have no savings in the US.
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 13:39:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'I') find a number of elements of peak oil die-off scenario a little weak – such as;


And note, none of the things you mentioned have anything to do with the elements of a die-off.

Die-off is always the sequel to overshoot.
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 13:46:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'I') find a number of elements of peak oil die-off scenario a little weak – such as;


And note, none of the things you mentioned have anything to do with the elements of a die-off.

Die-off is always the sequel to overshoot.


Robert Rapier is over on the "Saudi Arabia isn't Texas" thread. I wonder what he would say about a die off directly related to oil depletion? :roll:
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 13:53:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')Robert Rapier is over on the "Saudi Arabia isn't Texas" thread. I wonder what he would say about a die off directly related to oil depletion? :roll:


Dieoff is the result of overshoot, not oil depletion. Oil depletion just means that elements of the dieoff come sooner.
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 13:57:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')Robert Rapier is over on the "Saudi Arabia isn't Texas" thread. I wonder what he would say about a die off directly related to oil depletion? :roll:


Dieoff is the result of overshoot, not oil depletion. Oil depletion just means that elements of the dieoff come sooner.


I hope your die-off theory incorporates the idea of attrition; women in the third world becoming better educated and more able to choose not to have many children. That can happen too.
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 14:06:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')I hope your die-off theory incorporates the idea of attrition; women in the third world becoming better educated and more able to choose not to have many children. That can happen too.


Dieoff is not a theory. It is one of the basic tenents of biology and nature's corrective mechanisms.

For a population already billions beyond it's carrying capacity, birth control is not an answer. Takes 50 to 70 years for those decisions to have an effect. Besides, these things require a rise in the standard of living to achieve...something that may be hard to find in a post-peak world.

I guess you haven't taken the time to read the volumes of info I have posted on this.
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby skyemoor » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 14:35:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'I') find a number of elements of peak oil die-off scenario a little weak – such as;

1. I understand peak oil occurs when half of the economically extractable resources have been exhausted. However changing economic situations affect what is classified as economical to extract - surely there is now more economically extractable oil when the price of oil is $60+? Hence, more investment and greater expense on older equipment surely would increase the amount of oil economically recoverable in the medium term.


The infrastructure is aging badly; one can't just wave a wand and expect 'investments' will solve everything. Note that the US oil majors have been investing their windfalls in stock buybacks.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2'). Another trend seems to be to assume a recession will lead to a failures and eventually permanent failure of the energy grid system. I just can't see this happening as it's too important for any government to let collapse. The government will simply nationalize the energy system.


Are you referring to government leaders who embrace free markets? Even if the energy system is nationalized, declining production won't be reversed, and will likely fall faster due to the disruptions in management.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3'). Also, what about the collapse in demand for oil during the recession - surely this would further the plateau to allow time for further substitution to coal to liquids etc. The Hirsch report talks about a minimum lead in period of 10 years to migrate much of the economic difficulties but he also assumes NIMBY attitudes will cause much of the hold up. In an economic crises governments around the world will likely take emergency measures to override local objection and will get support from the majority, who won’t be effected but will enjoy the benefit, to build alternative infrastructure.


A collapsed economy means that money for massive infrastructure restructuring will not be available.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '4'). If the depression was very severer and tax revenue collapsed surely the government would opt for some kind of rationing system and compulsory nation service of unemployed people put to work maintaining food production, collecting resources and assisting in less technical roles in the investment in alternative and renewable infrastructure.


Still won't provide even a partial infrastructure shift. In the meantime, other critical infrastructure will collapse like a house of cards.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t seems to me there are a huge amount of possible courses of action that could be followed and many ways this can play itself out. In a worst case scenario I can see a neo-communist set-up being adopted in many countries in order to maintain the core activities of the government. Hopefully this big government role will have representation on some areas of life and a strong legislator so power won’t become too centralized. In the more moderate scenario I can see a prolonged period of stagflation, some governmental intervention and a semi-managed economy before some areas of the industrialized world reach a degree of stability.


Your scenarios have little to back them up, so there's little comment that can be made on them.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n both scenarios, I think the developing and third-world will be faring far worse than the developed world as the new urban masses and poor people already dependant on aid starve. In the case of the developed world – in both cases - the quality of living will be reduced, in the UK possibly similar to that of the post-WW2 era when Britain was the poor man of Europe. Given the level of organization, technical ability, education and, generally, good food production capabilities, I think – assuming Olduvai Theory is correct – much of the populations of North America, Europe and Russia will survive making up a significant portion of the 2 billion left. Possibly reducing, due to decreasing birthrates, to around 750 million by 2050.


You are assuming 'good food production' magically no longer relies on plenty of fuel, open pollinated seeds, non-petrochemical fertilizer and pesticides, and transportation of the bulk foods to the cities.

Do you think that the power grid will stay up?
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 14:45:04

Skymoor, You bring up an interesting point. If peak oil is a dire threat, why are the oil majors investing their windfalls in stock buy backs? I would hasten to add, a good portion of those profits are also being paid out to their upper execs CEO's and board of directors.
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 14:51:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')If peak oil is a dire threat, why are the oil majors investing their windfalls in stock buy backs?


Wouldn't you want to be owning all those stocks, too?
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 15:12:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')I hope your die-off theory incorporates the idea of attrition; women in the third world becoming better educated and more able to choose not to have many children. That can happen too.


Dieoff is not a theory. It is one of the basic tenents of biology and nature's corrective mechanisms.

For a population already billions beyond it's carrying capacity, birth control is not an answer. Takes 50 to 70 years for those decisions to have an effect. Besides, these things require a rise in the standard of living to achieve...something that may be hard to find in a post-peak world.

I guess you haven't taken the time to read the volumes of info I have posted on this.


MQuest--Who can say how a mechanism as complex as a biosphere corrects? And who can predict what homeostasis actually is, given that complexity, much less at what point it will be achieved? I think a good book for you to read, actually, would be "Parasite Rex", which describes this. It's beyond bizarre.


A simple prey/ predator understanding of the natural world indicates die off. It may be as simple as that. That understanding doesn't take into account the byzantine realm of parasitic relationships, which can and do segue into symbiotic ones, and that may add to our understanding of our place on the earth.

Humanity's relationship with the planet itself, can be seen to be cancerous, parasitic, on the one hand, but with the potential to evolve into a symbiotic one. This likely requires a shift in human consciousness.

I wonder, for example, if ingesting fungal entheogens and natural hallucinogenics may be one of the ways Nature is helping to facilitate a necessary shift in consciousness. The mycelial networks could be a part of the "mind" and nervous system of the planet and it could be having a direct impact, through ingestion.

Many cultural creatives are expressing ideas they have recieved while in entheogen induced trance. These ideas are gradually making their way into popular culture. This will likely amp up in the future. The strong emphasis on "green" in the mainstream media now indicates some kind of critical mass has been achieved and now eco-consciousness is becoming subtly pretty pervasive.

The planet could be "speaking" with us, the best way it knows how, though it's messengers, the fungus. A Gaiian self correcting system, could include and encompass the ability to manipulate human consciousness.
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 15:18:39

So, you might be saying, threadbear, the solution is to "evolve to the next spiritual plane."


That worked great in the past for folks like Jesus. Yep, worked great.
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 15:19:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')If peak oil is a dire threat, why are the oil majors investing their windfalls in stock buy backs?


Wouldn't you want to be owning all those stocks, too?


That's an interesting question, fraught with ethical complications and political considerations. Peak oil or no, oil is a bad long term play, as ecological considerations will eventually overwhelm the propagandizing arm of the oil industry. There will be subtle forces working on power and oil shares will likely plummet. The planet won't go down without a fight.
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 15:21:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')MQuest--Who can say how a mechanism as complex as a biosphere corrects?


A study and observation of biology and ecology has shown us that the sequel to overshoot is dieoff. Always.

To posit that humans are above nature is the epitome of hubris.
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 15:23:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')If peak oil is a dire threat, why are the oil majors investing their windfalls in stock buy backs?


Wouldn't you want to be owning all those stocks, too?


That's an interesting question, fraught with ethical complications and political considerations. Peak oil or no, oil is a bad long term play, as ecological considerations will eventually overwhelm the propagandizing arm of the oil industry. There will be subtle forces working on power and oil shares will likely plummet. The planet won't go down without a fight.


The stock market and business has always been short-sighted. Hell, we make decisions based upon quarter profits.

Can you say this short-term play will not bear rewards?
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 15:32:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'S')o, you might be saying, threadbear, the solution is to "evolve to the next spiritual plane."


That worked great in the past for folks like Jesus. Yep, worked great.


Actually Christianity with it's model of fairness and all people being created equal, had great impact on Rome. With all of it's flaws, Christianity and the shift in consciousness that followed helped ameliorate some of the most primitive impulses of man, at that time. It's time for a new and broader understanding of where we stand in relation to Earth, not just in relation to each other or "God". I'm hopeful.

Spiritual evolution may work as much from within as from an "external" source. It's neither subjective, objective, but could be described as an omnijective experience. Some people experience it more directly, other's experience it through the culture.

Omnijective:

This relationship between mind and reality is not subjective or objective, but 'omnijective. An omnijective concept of the universe is by no means new ... There is a vast philosophical and metaphysical tradition behind the philosophy that the universe is omnijective The mystics tell us this is true. The idealists tell us it is true. Most exciting of all, the physicists tell us it is true."
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 15:38:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')The stock market and business has always been short-sighted. Hell, we make decisions based upon quarter profits.

Can you say this short-term play will not bear rewards?


Probably. But I sold off my energy shares a couple of years ago, to wash the tar, mixed with blood, off my own hands. It was a purely ethical decision.
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby skyemoor » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 15:47:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')The stock market and business has always been short-sighted. Hell, we make decisions based upon quarter profits.

Can you say this short-term play will not bear rewards?


Probably. But I sold off my energy shares a couple of years ago, to wash the tar, mixed with blood, off my own hands. It was a purely ethical decision.


Ah, but as the price of remaining barrels oil increase in an unending spiral, how many oil company execs are going to have the same ethics you are? Oil will truly become black gold, so oil stocks will continue their upward march inexorably.
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby mkwin » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 15:49:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skyemoor', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'I') find a number of elements of peak oil die-off scenario a little weak – such as;

1. I understand peak oil occurs when half of the economically extractable resources have been exhausted. However changing economic situations affect what is classified as economical to extract - surely there is now more economically extractable oil when the price of oil is $60+? Hence, more investment and greater expense on older equipment surely would increase the amount of oil economically recoverable in the medium term.


The infrastructure is aging badly; one can't just wave a wand and expect 'investments' will solve everything. Note that the US oil majors have been investing their windfalls in stock buybacks.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2'). Another trend seems to be to assume a recession will lead to a failures and eventually permanent failure of the energy grid system. I just can't see this happening as it's too important for any government to let collapse. The government will simply nationalize the energy system.


Are you referring to government leaders who embrace free markets? Even if the energy system is nationalized, declining production won't be reversed, and will likely fall faster due to the disruptions in management.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3'). Also, what about the collapse in demand for oil during the recession - surely this would further the plateau to allow time for further substitution to coal to liquids etc. The Hirsch report talks about a minimum lead in period of 10 years to migrate much of the economic difficulties but he also assumes NIMBY attitudes will cause much of the hold up. In an economic crises governments around the world will likely take emergency measures to override local objection and will get support from the majority, who won’t be effected but will enjoy the benefit, to build alternative infrastructure.


A collapsed economy means that money for massive infrastructure restructuring will not be available.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '4'). If the depression was very severer and tax revenue collapsed surely the government would opt for some kind of rationing system and compulsory nation service of unemployed people put to work maintaining food production, collecting resources and assisting in less technical roles in the investment in alternative and renewable infrastructure.


Still won't provide even a partial infrastructure shift. In the meantime, other critical infrastructure will collapse like a house of cards.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t seems to me there are a huge amount of possible courses of action that could be followed and many ways this can play itself out. In a worst case scenario I can see a neo-communist set-up being adopted in many countries in order to maintain the core activities of the government. Hopefully this big government role will have representation on some areas of life and a strong legislator so power won’t become too centralized. In the more moderate scenario I can see a prolonged period of stagflation, some governmental intervention and a semi-managed economy before some areas of the industrialized world reach a degree of stability.


Your scenarios have little to back them up, so there's little comment that can be made on them.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n both scenarios, I think the developing and third-world will be faring far worse than the developed world as the new urban masses and poor people already dependant on aid starve. In the case of the developed world – in both cases - the quality of living will be reduced, in the UK possibly similar to that of the post-WW2 era when Britain was the poor man of Europe. Given the level of organization, technical ability, education and, generally, good food production capabilities, I think – assuming Olduvai Theory is correct – much of the populations of North America, Europe and Russia will survive making up a significant portion of the 2 billion left. Possibly reducing, due to decreasing birthrates, to around 750 million by 2050.


You are assuming 'good food production' magically no longer relies on plenty of fuel, open pollinated seeds, non-petrochemical fertilizer and pesticides, and transportation of the bulk foods to the cities.

Do you think that the power grid will stay up?


1) The investment comes from the newfound profitability of increase in the value of the finished problem - In peak oil the VERY last sector that will have problems finding investment is the oil industry as it will be one of the only industries with guaranteed growth.

2) Free market when the system works - besides the free market ideology is not that popular in continental Europe. It will be dropped quickly.

3) Massive investment infrastructure will come from deficit funding - and this massive investment will create a huge amount of jobs and economic activity helping to alleviate job losses in other sectors.

4) Neither does yours - in fact the whole doomers world view based on nothing but speculation. There is no attempt to estimate inflation rates/gdp declines/government revenue streams/specific country costs of coal to liquids/costs of maintaining the energy infrastructure etc. Pure speculation presented as undisputable fact. It could happen - I don't know - but there are multitude of other possibilities.

5) Fuel will be diverted to the agricultural sector as a priority - the first victims of petrol depletion will be your SUV's not your agricultural system.

And yes I believe the power grid will be maintained as a priority.
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby mkwin » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 15:54:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skyemoor', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')The stock market and business has always been short-sighted. Hell, we make decisions based upon quarter profits.

Can you say this short-term play will not bear rewards?


Probably. But I sold off my energy shares a couple of years ago, to wash the tar, mixed with blood, off my own hands. It was a purely ethical decision.


Ah, but as the price of remaining barrels oil increase in an unending spiral, how many oil company execs are going to have the same ethics you are? Oil will truly become black gold, so oil stocks will continue their upward march inexorably.


Exactly! Your saying there won't be the capital to invest in infrastructure/new drilling/more exploration/Increase deployment of IOR techniques?
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Re: Peak Nonsense

Unread postby PraiseDoom » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 16:15:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '-') in fact the whole doomers world view based on nothing but speculation.


Thou Shalt Not Reveal The Tenents Of Doom!!!
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